2/17 Watchlist

The indicators are doing now pretty much what they were doing at the opening. See today's Morningline.

The euro has almost precisely retraced yesterday's gains. It's though Tuesday didn't exist. So much for the staying power of global joy over prospects for resolving the Greek debt crisis. The EUR/USD pair continues to show a very weak macd bull signal; I have no confidence that it will remain and suspect it will turn out to be a ghost signal.

Gold (GLD has more than retraced yesterday's range, traversing 1% high to low on the third day of a strengthening macd bull signal.

The close-to-expiry drama that is a hallmark of iron condors is showing itself in my CVS February holding. The top of the maximum profit range is $34. The price has moved up to and slightly above that level.

1/29 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) for the fifth day are trading within a range, roughly 110.47 down to 107.91. More or less.

ESTRAGON: Charming spot. (He turns, advances to front, halts facing auditorium.) Inspiring prospects. (He turns to Vladimir.) Let's go.
VLADIMIR: We can't.
ESTRAGON: Why not?
VLADIMIR: We're waiting for Godot

"Godot" -- it is a little known fact -- is French for "volatility".

1/20 Watchlist: Whither Blue Chips?

Three days within a trading range (about 113.50 to 115 for SPY).
Three days of signals bear bull bear (using Person's Proprietary Signal).

What to make of the blue chip stocks? A major longer-term top or not? That is the question. . . .

1/19 Watchlist: Whipsaw Fever, Nothing is Forever

The blue chip stocks (SPY) are showing a pps bull signal, after they showed a pps bear signal just one trading day prior, and have retraced all of the loss they showed on the day before the long holiday weekend. This is the Mother of All Whipsaws. It certainly justifies my cautious stance on Friday.

Also goes to show, in the markets, nothing is forever. Ever.

The other indicators: The same as I noted in the Morningline, except more so.

Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .

1/14 Watchlist: Some techs on the move INTC MSFT CSCO ORCL RIMM

The blue chip stocks continue to trade around the top of their recent range. Treasury long bond prices today are rising through most of their recent range (that is, interest rates are falling).

Corporate, high-interest-rate junk bonds are barely moving, despite yesterday's bear signal.

Gold is glistening in place like a necklace on display in a high-end jewelry store window, and oil is standing still like scum on a stagnant pond, gently brushed by flitting dragonflies, after cascading for three days like Multnomah Falls on a rainy Oregon day.

Above all, similes are flying wildly as bored traders seek amusement on the Thursday before January options expire. It's a tough business, but someone has to do it.

The major foreign exchange currencies -- the dollar, yen and euro -- stayed within their recent ranges in forex trading.

Looking at stocks: The techs are on the move. Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Research-in-Motion. Household names all.

Let's see what's interesting among the . . .

1/11 Watchlist: SBUX losing it's bite

• EUR/USD keeps its bull signal
• Indicators little changed from the Morningline
• January holdings, possible closes:
  
• KO jumps up toward top of profit range
• SBUX falls toward no-caf, no profit
  

 All holdings that expire in January must be sold, except for those that I intend to allow to expire worthless or whose exercise would be profitable. My LVS covered call (-c16), for example, will be exercised, so no action is needed.

The KO jump  brings it up to 56.13. The iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) has max profit up to 57.5.

SBUX is trading at 23.02, about 2% below the profit point. It's a tough decision. There is no pps bear signal, although the macd is in bear territory and the stochastic is moving that way. But, the price bounced a bit off of resistance at 22.87, so maybe there's hope.

Here's what's interesting among the high-volume . . .

12/17 Watchlist

A new bull signal on Treasury long bonds (TLT), and a bear signal on gold (GLD). Otherwise, nothing to add to this morning's discussion of the indicators.

No new signals on the currency pairs (EUR/USD and USD/JPY)

Among holdings:

Three January bull positons -- AET, HPQ, VALE -- have pulled back from peaks. I'm thinking of closing the positions.

LVS, a January covered call, is showing a bear signal, and prices remain in a sideways range.

KO, a January iron condor, has moved back in to max profit territory.

UNG, my December covered call, is trading well above 10. The call is a 9 strike, so the position will be exercised by whoever bought the call.

High-volume stocks and etfs priced $20 and above:

• QQQQ, bear signal, uptrend
  
• EEM, bear with a downward gap, uptrend
  
• JPM, bear, downtrend, but already at resistance
  
• MSFT, bear, uptrend
  
• MJN, bear,sideways trend, on the fourth day following a bull signal; confused puppy mode
• FCX, bear, amid a sharp pullback following an uptrend, the day following a bull signal; drunken sailor mode
• PG, bear, uptrend, on the fourth day following a bull signal (no more metaphors)
  
• FDX, bear, uptrend, on a gap down following earnings
• VWO, bear on a gap down, uptrend
  
• MOS, bear, sideways with some deep fluctuations
  
• DTV, bear, uptrend
  
• IVV, bear, uptrend
  
• XLI, bear, uptrend
  
• XLV, bear, uptrend
  
• VOD, bear, uptrend
  
• AXP, bear, uptrend
  
• GPS, bear (but no gap), trend change (maybe) from up to down
  
• DIA, bear, uptrend
  
• COF, bear, sideways following a strong uptrend
  

So, all in all, a fairly broad switch into bear mode. A lot of the stocks, not just those noted above, showed whipsaws from bull to bear the last few days. With the holiday trading week coming up, closing questionable positions is the prudent course.

JPM is the only trend following trade  in the batch, and since it is already at resistance, I don't find it to be compelling.

No covered call scan today.

12/14 Watchlist

Among the indicators, blue chips (SPY) continues to show a bull signal, but I'm not sure that I trust it. The chart showed a drop at the open from 111.87 down to  105.48, and then a quick recovery back up to slightly below 112. I won't act on the signal until I see some price confirmation.
Otherwise, there are no new indicator or currency signals.

New signals among high-volume stocks and etfs are big on energy, emerging markets, and additions to the S&P 500 index. I find VALE to be the most interesting, because it has the clearest trend, and QQQQ, because of its position as one of the top two etfs:

• VALE, bull, uptrend since March, pause since mid-November. Wonderful trend. 

Others:

• XTO, bull on a sharp gap upward on news. Exxon-Mobil announced it would take over XTO Energy.
• QQQQ, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November.
• EEM, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since mid-November.
• CHK, bull on a gap up, downtrend since early November
• MSFT, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November
•  OSK, bear on a decline from 41.42 down to 33, on news about an Army contract
• WMT, bear, up since early october, sideways since early December. Confused puppy mode: It's the third signal in seven trading days.
• XLK, bull, uptrend since March. The fifth signal in 15 days; also a confused pup.
• IYR, bull, uptrend since March, sideways (with some good volatility) since early September.
• MJN, bull, uptrend since April, sideways since August, and a fair dinkum drop from late September. It was added to the S&P500.
• PM, bull, up since January, sideways from early September.
• IWO, bull, up since March.
• HAL, bull, down since October
• DVN, bull on a gap up, sideways since October with a drop this month.
• COP, bull, sideways since October.
• PG, bull, up since March. This issue has a wonderful uptrend but has been giving some confused puppy signals since September. So, I'd be prepared for a disappointment on this one.
• APC, bull, downtrend since September.
• EOG, bull on a gap up, sideways to down since September
• SWN, bull on a gap up, down since October
  

Follow-up:

• ORCL gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Friday.
• V gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Thursday. It was added to the S&P500.
• APOL rose through resistance after a bull signal on Thursday.
• BBY blew past resistance after a bull signal on Friday.

No new signals on my holdings.

12/8 Watchlist

I've found one possibly decent trade, and that one ambiguous, after scanning all etfs and stocks with volume of 5,000,000 and up for pps signals, status of mfi confirmation by direction, and the trend.

The one possibility is AET, which showing a bull pps signal, confirmed by the direction of the mfi. True, the stock has been in a sideways trend since March, but the bull signal is coming at the top of a fluctuation cycle that has been running about a month measured peak to peak.

AET is not yet quit at resistance, and I want to see what happens. If the price breaks above 31.25, then it might be a trade a for me.

Here's the reject list, showing pps signals with status of mfi confirmation by direction and trend:

• SPY, bear, confirmed, sideways
• EEM, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• MSFT, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  
• ORCL,  bear, confirmed, sideways
• MRK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• HD, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• XLI, bear, confirmed, sideways
• ITUB, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• DIA, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• PG, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLP, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• VWO, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• TWX, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement on news
• BBD, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement

I've rejected the sideways trenders (except AET, as described above) because they tend to be too short term for my purposes. My ideal options position will be short (i.e., I sold the options)  and will last for 30 days and trend in my direction, giving me a bump from both the price rise and theta decay.


I also rejected the counter-trend retracements, since my present strategy is to trade with the larger trend.

In today's scan, I gave little thought to mfi confirmation. There was just so much not to like that the mfi became irrelevant.

In my holdings:

HPQ has lost the bear signal it showed at the opening this morning and has barely budged during the day. So, no action appears necessary.

X is looking nicely bearish in line with my position.

UNG, at 0.46 above the strike of my 9.00 covered call, is showing a bull signal. For tomorrow I'll do  calculation of when (if) it makes sense to sell the call and retain the shares rather than waiting for exercise.

KO, in bull mode with a sideways price, remains at the top of max profitability of my iron condor.

The indicators -- SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY -- remain as described in the Morningline.

12/4 Watchlist

I won't be doing a full scan today, as markets appear to be reversing and I don't want to enter new positions with the weekend ahead.

GLD, which showed  a pps bear signal this morning confirmed by the mfi, has declined to the 113.5 level, a drop of nearly four points. As the price is near bear resistance,  I won't enter now.

The others I've been watching -- IWM, MSFT, ORCL -- have pulled back from upside resistance.

Holdings:

• HIG, a January bull put spread, continues in a sideways range.
• KO, a 57.5/52.5 iron condor, is trading at the high end of expiry profitability.
  
• UNG, a December covered call, has moved back into profitable territory at expiration.

Indicators:

• SPY (blue chips) is trading sideways with an expanding daily range.
• TLT (Treasury long bonds) has gapped down for the second day in a row and is trading at resistance.
• GLD (precious metals) discussed above in the 2nd graf.
• VIX (fear index) moving sideways at the lower end of its three-month range.

Currencies:

• EUR/USD (dollars per euro), a large drop of more than 200 pips.
• USD/JPY (yen per dollar), a similarly large rise.
  

12/4 Morningline

(Analyzed using pps/mfi, except for currencies, where pps/rsi is used.)

Holdings:

• HIG, a January bull put spread, is at yesterday's open and not moving.
• KO, at 57.9, has risen to just outside the max profit range of my 52.5 to 57.5 January iron condor
• UNG, a December covered call, has gapped slightly on the open to 0.07 above the 8.63 basis.

Indicators:

• SPY (blue chips) in bull mode with a sidewise price.
• TLT (Treasury long bonds) bear mode, with the price having dropped nearly 3 points since the signal appeared on Dec. 1. Declining TLT price means rising interest rates.
  
• GLD (precious metals) is showing a bear pps signal on a drop of 3 from yesterday's all time high. Confirmed by the mfi.
• VIX (fear index) in bear mode, and steady. A bearish VIX is bullish for stocks.

Currencies:

• EUR/USD (dollars per euro) trending sideways in pps bull mode unconfirmed by the rsi (which is also sideways).
• USD/JPY (yen per dollar) rising in bull mode. It fell immediately after the signal was given on Nov. 12 and is only now recovering the signal level.
  

Yesterday's Watchlist:

• GLD may be a candidate for a short open today. See the indicators section.
• IWM, MSFT, ORCL are all in bull mode and trading at resistance.
  

12/3 Watchlist

Some new stocks to look at from among those trading 5 million shares or more at this point in the market day:

(pps bull signals)

HGSI since July has had the pattern of moving sideways until earnings, when it gaps up. No earnings are pending, so I think it's a trade only for a calendar spread at strike 28.

RIMM has been trading in a downward pattern since a large gap down in early October. I would reject the pps signal as contrary to the trend.

HIG has been trading sideways since early October, a pause in an upward trend that began in March. Shares are trading at 24.60 with upside resistance at just below 30 and support at about 23. An attractive possibility.

(pps bear signals)

USB has paused in an upward trend since March. I would reject the trade as contrarian.

ARO gapped down on earnings today and is below resistance. I would expect a pause at this point and perhaps an attempt to fill in the gap, so I wouldn't enter this trade now. It does have a lot of room on the downside, however.

ANF shows a sharp downward move to below the 20-day simple moving average in  the midst of an upward trend. This is in line with its pattern over the past year of stair-stepping up. Possibly a good bull trade at the next pps signal.

SBUX has been essentially flat since mid-August. The Bollinger bands are narrowing, suggesting a change.. My best guess is that the change would be  to resume the uptrend that has held since March.

My earlier watchlist stocks:

(pps bull signals)

IWM down today, trading at 59.68. Upside resistance is at 60.75, so there's not a lot of potential there.

MSFT is trading at 30, about at resistance. It is still unconfirmed by the mfi, which is pointing down.

ORCL has moved up to resistance, exhausting its potential on this leg.

(pps bear signals)

CHK is at 23.20, with resistance at about 22.80 and an upward trending mfi. No joy.


(former problem child)

GLD remains about where it was yesterday, when I closed.

Holdings:

KO is dropping back toward profitability in my iron triangle, which spans from 57.50 to 52.50.

UNG stands right below the profitability point in its covered call (a short call option plus long shares).

Trading decisions after 3:30 p.m. EST (12:30 p.m. PST).

12/3 Morningline

(All analyses use the pps/mfi except currencies, which use the pps/rsi.)

Holdings:

• KO is holding about about the same level as yesterday.
• UNG is at 8.62, about at my basis.

Possiblities identified in yesteday's Watchlist:

• IWM will be a bullish position if it bumps past resistance at about 60.74
  
• MSFT (bull) is at resistance, with the pps indicator unconfirmed by an mfi upturn.
• ORCL (bull) also at resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi direction.
  
• CHK (bear) holding steady at yesterday's close, and the mfi has turned upward, negating the pps signal.
  
• BK (bull) is rising toward resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi.

Indicators:

• SPY (blue chips) remains in bull mode, confirmed by the mfi, but with little change in price since the pps signal was given five days ago.
  
• TLT (Treasury long bonds) remains in bear mode, with a gap down this morning that returns the price to its low of Nov. 23. Interest rates move the opposite of the TLT price.
• GLD (gold) is steady at about our exit point of yesteday, in pps bull mode confirmed by the mfi.
  

The VIX (fear index) has opened at  about yesterday's close after a five-day decline that puts it in the range of the lowest levels of the past three months.

Currencies:

• EUR/USD (Dollars per Euro) is in pps bull mode with the rsi, like the price, trending sideways.
  
• USD/JPY (Yen per Dollar) is in pps bull mode, and prices have actually begun to rise, after falling for 11 days after the pps signal was given. The rsi is also rising.

On GLD:

My losing bear trade, closed yesterday, was based on analysis using Bollinger bands with the money flow index. If GLD gets a reversal signal from the pps/mfi combo, I'll need to decide whether to re-open a bearish position in GLD. I'll be watching for that possibility today.

12/2 Wrap

I'm liking MSFT but shall not open a position today pending an upturn in the mfi.

I'm nervous about my KO holding, but shall take no action today. The price is in a holding pattern, and the Bollinger bands are starting to narrow, the beginning of a trend change, perhaps. (Yes, this is mixing methods.)