2/2 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) are trading between the 50 percent and 32.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels. The macd remains in bear territory for the ninth consecutive trading day, and for three days has been trending upward toward the zero line.

A Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) bull signal is showing 90 minutes before the end of the trading session.

12/11 Watchlist

BMY rose again today after a bull signal at yesterday's close. It has been in an aggressive uptrend since late October and has about $2 to go until it hits upside resistance set in January 2008. (Yes, I pegged it as a sideways trend in yesterday's Watchlist. I broadened by view.) It's looking interesting as a possible play.
BAX, a bull signal yesterday that looked interesting but which I didn't trade, has shown a strong rise for the second day and has pierced resistance set in September.

New signals among other high-volume stocks and etfs, with the direction of the signal and the trend in which it has occurred:

• ORCL, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since October.
• SMH, bear, uptrend since March
• HD, bull, uptrend since March (trading at resistance)
• CTL, bull, uptrend since March (whipsaw from bear signal given three days earlier)
• BRCM, bear, uptrend since March (strong reversal at resistance)
• DIA, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since November (trading at resistance, whipsaw from a bear signal given four days earlier)
• XRT, bull, downtrend since October
• POT, bear, uptrend since October
• AXP, bull, uptrend since March (about $4 away from upside resistance, but this is the fifth signal given in 11 days, so clearly the stock in neither a bull nor a bear but a confused puppy)
  

Of those, AXP is interesting because of the distance from resistance, but the false signals worry me.

Holdings:

UNG, a covered call (-c9) that expires in eight days, has fallen to 9.53 and remains profitable.

Of the January expiry holdings, there are no new signals.

X, a bear spread (-c40/c41), which has moved contrary to my bearish position, is pulling back a bit but remains worrisome.

AET, a bull spread (p31/-p32) that showed a nice rise this morning, has pulled back to within yesteday's trading range.

HPQ, a bull spread (p49/-p50), is stalled at the cusp of profitability.

KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) remains above the range of max profit at expiration.

No new signals among the indicators.

12/8 Watchlist

I've found one possibly decent trade, and that one ambiguous, after scanning all etfs and stocks with volume of 5,000,000 and up for pps signals, status of mfi confirmation by direction, and the trend.

The one possibility is AET, which showing a bull pps signal, confirmed by the direction of the mfi. True, the stock has been in a sideways trend since March, but the bull signal is coming at the top of a fluctuation cycle that has been running about a month measured peak to peak.

AET is not yet quit at resistance, and I want to see what happens. If the price breaks above 31.25, then it might be a trade a for me.

Here's the reject list, showing pps signals with status of mfi confirmation by direction and trend:

• SPY, bear, confirmed, sideways
• EEM, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• MSFT, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  
• ORCL,  bear, confirmed, sideways
• MRK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• HD, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• XLI, bear, confirmed, sideways
• ITUB, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• DIA, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• PG, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLP, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• VWO, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• TWX, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement on news
• BBD, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement

I've rejected the sideways trenders (except AET, as described above) because they tend to be too short term for my purposes. My ideal options position will be short (i.e., I sold the options)  and will last for 30 days and trend in my direction, giving me a bump from both the price rise and theta decay.


I also rejected the counter-trend retracements, since my present strategy is to trade with the larger trend.

In today's scan, I gave little thought to mfi confirmation. There was just so much not to like that the mfi became irrelevant.

In my holdings:

HPQ has lost the bear signal it showed at the opening this morning and has barely budged during the day. So, no action appears necessary.

X is looking nicely bearish in line with my position.

UNG, at 0.46 above the strike of my 9.00 covered call, is showing a bull signal. For tomorrow I'll do  calculation of when (if) it makes sense to sell the call and retain the shares rather than waiting for exercise.

KO, in bull mode with a sideways price, remains at the top of max profitability of my iron condor.

The indicators -- SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY -- remain as described in the Morningline.

11/9 Morningline

No significant economic releases today.

SPY (tracking the SP500) is in the third day of a Persons PPS uptrend. GLD (the gold ETF) is in the sixth day of a PPS uptrend. Both are confirmed by the MFI.

USO (tracking oil) flipped into a PPS downtrend on Friday, unconfirmed by the MFI, and that was two days after entering an unconfirmed uptrend. Bottom line on oils: They are confused puppies who don't know where they want to go. Indecision is the enemy of profit.

In the currencies, EUR/USD is in the fourth day of a PPS uptrend, confirmed by the Wilder RSI, and the USD/JPY is in the 9th day of a confirmed RSI downtrend. (I use the RSI on currencies because they have no volume data, which the MFI requires. The RSI is a volume-less surrogate for the MFI.)

In the portfolio this morning, these positions continue their PPS bull moves:

• AMD, third day of the move, but the MFI has diverged
• CSCO, fourth day
• GE, second day
• HD, third day
• IWM, third day
• NVDA, third day, but the MFI has diverged

11/6 Morningline

NVDA trading this morning at 13.06, up 0.77 (5.9%) from yesterday's purchase, after earnings.

Other bull holdings: CSCO, HD, IWM, AMD

Other bear holdings: None

Opened HD bull put spread

Opened HD bull put spread at 25.66 on the underlying, short the DEC 27 and long the DEC 26, for a 0.60 credit.

11/5 Watchlist: BAC INTC GE HD IWM NVDA

IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF, showing bull mode confirmed by an MFI oversold bounce. Currently trading at 57.20, below a downward-trending MA20, with upside price resistance at 51.50.

NVDA, Nvidia Corp., showing bull mode confirmed by an MFI bounce off the oversold line. Earnings announcement scheduled for after market close. Currently trading at 12.16, below a downward-trending MA20, with upside price resistance at 13.55 and downside support at 11.56. The Risk: A downside earnings surprise, but the technicals suggest current money expects an upsider.

HD, Home Depot Inc., showing bull mode confirmed by an MFI bounce off the oversold line. Now trading at 25.01, below a downward-trending MA20.

AMD, Advanced Micro Devices Inc., showing bull mode confirmed by an MFI bounce off the oversold line. Now trading at 4.79, below a downward-trending MA20

Also watching: BAC INTC GE on MFI oversold bounces without an entry signal.