I've closed my February bull put spread on ORCL with the stock price down 2.2 percent from where I opened it. Altogether, the position was open five calendar days.
I opened the position on a gap past resistance the day after a bull signal from Person's Proprietary Indicator. The stock has been in an upward trend since last October.
Showing posts with label ORCL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ORCL. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
1/20 Morningline: Blue Chips topping at the Fibonacci 50% Retracement?
Blue chip stocks are drifting down after opening around the middle of yesterday's trading range. The stochastic has fallen below the 80-line, and the macd, below the zero-line. This is after a bear signal and then a bull signal, from Person's Proprietary Signal, one trading day after another.
The so-called fear index, the VIX, is showing a potential pps bull signal, which is bearish for stocks.
Is this a topping pattern, as confused puppy mode often can be? The S&P500 etf, SPY, is trading at 114, right at the point where it has regained half the loss it suffered from October 2007 high to its March 2009 low. That Fibonacci retracement level is often a turning point for shares.
In the long term, if the market is stair-stepping down, this a point where it typically takes the next step down.
The so-called fear index, the VIX, is showing a potential pps bull signal, which is bearish for stocks.
Is this a topping pattern, as confused puppy mode often can be? The S&P500 etf, SPY, is trading at 114, right at the point where it has regained half the loss it suffered from October 2007 high to its March 2009 low. That Fibonacci retracement level is often a turning point for shares.
In the long term, if the market is stair-stepping down, this a point where it typically takes the next step down.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
1/19 Morningline: VIX play prairie dog
The volatility measure, the so-called fear index or VIX, popped out of its hole, gapping up to open 5.2 percent above Friday's close and briefly showed a pps bull signal, which disappeared within minutes. The index then popped back down.
Blue-chip stocks opened quietly at the lower end of Friday's bearish trading range, a 1.4 percent decline from high to low, and then began to retrace the decline.
The price of Treasury long-term bonds gapped down by about a third of a percent. Crude oil opened down by nearly a percent from Friday's close, and then began to rise.
It was the sort of morning where the seas were calm but the sun rose into a red sky that faded to pale pink. Sailor take warning?
Let's run the numbers . . .
Blue-chip stocks opened quietly at the lower end of Friday's bearish trading range, a 1.4 percent decline from high to low, and then began to retrace the decline.
The price of Treasury long-term bonds gapped down by about a third of a percent. Crude oil opened down by nearly a percent from Friday's close, and then began to rise.
It was the sort of morning where the seas were calm but the sun rose into a red sky that faded to pale pink. Sailor take warning?
Let's run the numbers . . .
Friday, January 15, 2010
1/15 Morningline: The Inflation Puppeteer at Play
The price of the longest-term Treasury bonds, issued for periods of 20 and 30 years, gapped up by 3/4 of a percent this morning. Since trading opened yesterday, the bonds have risen 1.6 percent.
The Consumer Price Index, released today before the start of trading, showed very low inflation. Interest rates on bonds are typically a premium over and above the inflation rate. With expectations of lower inflation, the market prices in lower rates when selling bonds by lower the bond price.
The CPI is a like a gigantic global puppeteer. It pulls one string, and all of the world's economic arms and legs and heads spring into motion. . . .
The Consumer Price Index, released today before the start of trading, showed very low inflation. Interest rates on bonds are typically a premium over and above the inflation rate. With expectations of lower inflation, the market prices in lower rates when selling bonds by lower the bond price.
The CPI is a like a gigantic global puppeteer. It pulls one string, and all of the world's economic arms and legs and heads spring into motion. . . .
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Opened ORCL bull position
My vehicle is a bull put spread that expires on Feb. 19, 36 days from today. The structure of the spread is that I buy a put with a lower price, 25 in this case, and sell a put with a higher strike price, 27 in this case. The lower strike is below the current trading price, and the higher strike is above it.
The stock was trading at 25.39 when the trade cleared. The bull put spread gave me a credit of 1.20. . . .
1/14 Watchlist: Some techs on the move INTC MSFT CSCO ORCL RIMM
The blue chip stocks continue to trade around the top of their recent range. Treasury long bond prices today are rising through most of their recent range (that is, interest rates are falling).
Corporate, high-interest-rate junk bonds are barely moving, despite yesterday's bear signal.
Gold is glistening in place like a necklace on display in a high-end jewelry store window, and oil is standing still like scum on a stagnant pond, gently brushed by flitting dragonflies, after cascading for three days like Multnomah Falls on a rainy Oregon day.
Above all, similes are flying wildly as bored traders seek amusement on the Thursday before January options expire. It's a tough business, but someone has to do it.
The major foreign exchange currencies -- the dollar, yen and euro -- stayed within their recent ranges in forex trading.
Looking at stocks: The techs are on the move. Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Research-in-Motion. Household names all.
Let's see what's interesting among the . . .
Corporate, high-interest-rate junk bonds are barely moving, despite yesterday's bear signal.
Gold is glistening in place like a necklace on display in a high-end jewelry store window, and oil is standing still like scum on a stagnant pond, gently brushed by flitting dragonflies, after cascading for three days like Multnomah Falls on a rainy Oregon day.
Above all, similes are flying wildly as bored traders seek amusement on the Thursday before January options expire. It's a tough business, but someone has to do it.
The major foreign exchange currencies -- the dollar, yen and euro -- stayed within their recent ranges in forex trading.
Looking at stocks: The techs are on the move. Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Research-in-Motion. Household names all.
Let's see what's interesting among the . . .
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
1/13 Watchlist: Junk bears; Showdown at the Baidu gap
Corporate junk bonds (JNK) are showing a pps bear flag; the macd and stochastic remain in bull territory.
Otherwise, little movement in the indicators, currencies or holdings.
Here's who's going where among the indicators since this morning: Blue chips up, volatility (fear) down, Treasury long bonds down, gold up, oil down.
And here's what's interesting among the high-volume . . .
Otherwise, little movement in the indicators, currencies or holdings.
Here's who's going where among the indicators since this morning: Blue chips up, volatility (fear) down, Treasury long bonds down, gold up, oil down.
And here's what's interesting among the high-volume . . .
Friday, December 11, 2009
12/11 Watchlist
BMY rose again today after a bull signal at yesterday's close. It has been in an aggressive uptrend since late October and has about $2 to go until it hits upside resistance set in January 2008. (Yes, I pegged it as a sideways trend in yesterday's Watchlist. I broadened by view.) It's looking interesting as a possible play.
BAX, a bull signal yesterday that looked interesting but which I didn't trade, has shown a strong rise for the second day and has pierced resistance set in September.
New signals among other high-volume stocks and etfs, with the direction of the signal and the trend in which it has occurred:
Holdings:
UNG, a covered call (-c9) that expires in eight days, has fallen to 9.53 and remains profitable.
Of the January expiry holdings, there are no new signals.
X, a bear spread (-c40/c41), which has moved contrary to my bearish position, is pulling back a bit but remains worrisome.
AET, a bull spread (p31/-p32) that showed a nice rise this morning, has pulled back to within yesteday's trading range.
HPQ, a bull spread (p49/-p50), is stalled at the cusp of profitability.
KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) remains above the range of max profit at expiration.
No new signals among the indicators.
BAX, a bull signal yesterday that looked interesting but which I didn't trade, has shown a strong rise for the second day and has pierced resistance set in September.
New signals among other high-volume stocks and etfs, with the direction of the signal and the trend in which it has occurred:
- ORCL, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since October.
- SMH, bear, uptrend since March
- HD, bull, uptrend since March (trading at resistance)
- CTL, bull, uptrend since March (whipsaw from bear signal given three days earlier)
- BRCM, bear, uptrend since March (strong reversal at resistance)
- DIA, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since November (trading at resistance, whipsaw from a bear signal given four days earlier)
- XRT, bull, downtrend since October
- POT, bear, uptrend since October
- AXP, bull, uptrend since March (about $4 away from upside resistance, but this is the fifth signal given in 11 days, so clearly the stock in neither a bull nor a bear but a confused puppy)
Holdings:
UNG, a covered call (-c9) that expires in eight days, has fallen to 9.53 and remains profitable.
Of the January expiry holdings, there are no new signals.
X, a bear spread (-c40/c41), which has moved contrary to my bearish position, is pulling back a bit but remains worrisome.
AET, a bull spread (p31/-p32) that showed a nice rise this morning, has pulled back to within yesteday's trading range.
HPQ, a bull spread (p49/-p50), is stalled at the cusp of profitability.
KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) remains above the range of max profit at expiration.
No new signals among the indicators.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
12/10 Watchlist
AET has penetrated resistance decisively on the third day after a bull signal and is a buy at 31.70 or below with upside resistance around 33.70. See the discussion in yesterday's Watchlist.
I've opened a bull put spread (p31/-p32) in AET at 31.70 for 0.47 credit. The position is profitable on expiration in January from about 31.55 upward.
New signals among the high-volume stocks and etfs, with the signal, mfi confirmation status, and the trend:
The rest are mainly whipsawing in confused puppy mode -- a series of bull and bear signals every few days.
Indicators: The VIX bear signal (bullish for stocks) noted in this morning's Morningline has disappeared. Other indicators remain as described.
Holdings:
UNG had a sharp rise today and the December covered call (-c9) will be exercised at this level. The trade remains profitable.
HPQ, a January bull put spread (p40/-p50) remains in bull mode iwth a price rise today.
KO is trading above the upper end of profitability at expiry of the January iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60).
X, showing a bull signal from yesterday, contrary to my Janurary bear call spread (-c40/c41), is pulling back a bit at the upper end of yesterday's trading range.
Currencies (paper trade):
USD/JPY remains in bear mode and is trading within yesterday's trading range. I continue to hold my short position.
I've opened a bull put spread (p31/-p32) in AET at 31.70 for 0.47 credit. The position is profitable on expiration in January from about 31.55 upward.
New signals among the high-volume stocks and etfs, with the signal, mfi confirmation status, and the trend:
- QQQQ, bull, confirmed, sideways
- ORCL, bull, confirmed, sideways
- BMY, bull, confirmed, sideways
- SBUX, bull, confirmed, sideways
- UNH, bull, confirmed, sideways
- QCOM, bull, confirmed, sideways
- XLK, bull, confirmed, sideways
- CVS, bull, unconfirmed, sideways
- BAX, bull confirmed, sideways (at resistance following strong gain)
- MT, bull, confirmed, sideways
The rest are mainly whipsawing in confused puppy mode -- a series of bull and bear signals every few days.
Indicators: The VIX bear signal (bullish for stocks) noted in this morning's Morningline has disappeared. Other indicators remain as described.
Holdings:
UNG had a sharp rise today and the December covered call (-c9) will be exercised at this level. The trade remains profitable.
HPQ, a January bull put spread (p40/-p50) remains in bull mode iwth a price rise today.
KO is trading above the upper end of profitability at expiry of the January iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60).
X, showing a bull signal from yesterday, contrary to my Janurary bear call spread (-c40/c41), is pulling back a bit at the upper end of yesterday's trading range.
Currencies (paper trade):
USD/JPY remains in bear mode and is trading within yesterday's trading range. I continue to hold my short position.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
12/8 Watchlist
I've found one possibly decent trade, and that one ambiguous, after scanning all etfs and stocks with volume of 5,000,000 and up for pps signals, status of mfi confirmation by direction, and the trend.
The one possibility is AET, which showing a bull pps signal, confirmed by the direction of the mfi. True, the stock has been in a sideways trend since March, but the bull signal is coming at the top of a fluctuation cycle that has been running about a month measured peak to peak.
AET is not yet quit at resistance, and I want to see what happens. If the price breaks above 31.25, then it might be a trade a for me.
Here's the reject list, showing pps signals with status of mfi confirmation by direction and trend:
I also rejected the counter-trend retracements, since my present strategy is to trade with the larger trend.
In today's scan, I gave little thought to mfi confirmation. There was just so much not to like that the mfi became irrelevant.
HPQ has lost the bear signal it showed at the opening this morning and has barely budged during the day. So, no action appears necessary.
X is looking nicely bearish in line with my position.
UNG, at 0.46 above the strike of my 9.00 covered call, is showing a bull signal. For tomorrow I'll do calculation of when (if) it makes sense to sell the call and retain the shares rather than waiting for exercise.
KO, in bull mode with a sideways price, remains at the top of max profitability of my iron condor.
The indicators -- SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY -- remain as described in the Morningline.
The one possibility is AET, which showing a bull pps signal, confirmed by the direction of the mfi. True, the stock has been in a sideways trend since March, but the bull signal is coming at the top of a fluctuation cycle that has been running about a month measured peak to peak.
AET is not yet quit at resistance, and I want to see what happens. If the price breaks above 31.25, then it might be a trade a for me.
Here's the reject list, showing pps signals with status of mfi confirmation by direction and trend:
- SPY, bear, confirmed, sideways
- EEM, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
- MSFT, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- ORCL, bear, confirmed, sideways
- MRK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- HD, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
- XLI, bear, confirmed, sideways
- ITUB, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- DIA, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- PG, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- XLP, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- VWO, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- TWX, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement on news
- BBD, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- XLK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
I also rejected the counter-trend retracements, since my present strategy is to trade with the larger trend.
In today's scan, I gave little thought to mfi confirmation. There was just so much not to like that the mfi became irrelevant.
HPQ has lost the bear signal it showed at the opening this morning and has barely budged during the day. So, no action appears necessary.
X is looking nicely bearish in line with my position.
UNG, at 0.46 above the strike of my 9.00 covered call, is showing a bull signal. For tomorrow I'll do calculation of when (if) it makes sense to sell the call and retain the shares rather than waiting for exercise.
KO, in bull mode with a sideways price, remains at the top of max profitability of my iron condor.
The indicators -- SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY -- remain as described in the Morningline.
Friday, December 4, 2009
12/4 Watchlist
I won't be doing a full scan today, as markets appear to be reversing and I don't want to enter new positions with the weekend ahead.
GLD, which showed a pps bear signal this morning confirmed by the mfi, has declined to the 113.5 level, a drop of nearly four points. As the price is near bear resistance, I won't enter now.
The others I've been watching -- IWM, MSFT, ORCL -- have pulled back from upside resistance.
Holdings:
GLD, which showed a pps bear signal this morning confirmed by the mfi, has declined to the 113.5 level, a drop of nearly four points. As the price is near bear resistance, I won't enter now.
The others I've been watching -- IWM, MSFT, ORCL -- have pulled back from upside resistance.
Holdings:
- HIG, a January bull put spread, continues in a sideways range.
- KO, a 57.5/52.5 iron condor, is trading at the high end of expiry profitability.
- UNG, a December covered call, has moved back into profitable territory at expiration.
- SPY (blue chips) is trading sideways with an expanding daily range.
- TLT (Treasury long bonds) has gapped down for the second day in a row and is trading at resistance.
- GLD (precious metals) discussed above in the 2nd graf.
- VIX (fear index) moving sideways at the lower end of its three-month range.
- EUR/USD (dollars per euro), a large drop of more than 200 pips.
- USD/JPY (yen per dollar), a similarly large rise.
12/4 Morningline
(Analyzed using pps/mfi, except for currencies, where pps/rsi is used.)
Holdings:
Holdings:
- HIG, a January bull put spread, is at yesterday's open and not moving.
- KO, at 57.9, has risen to just outside the max profit range of my 52.5 to 57.5 January iron condor
- UNG, a December covered call, has gapped slightly on the open to 0.07 above the 8.63 basis.
- SPY (blue chips) in bull mode with a sidewise price.
- TLT (Treasury long bonds) bear mode, with the price having dropped nearly 3 points since the signal appeared on Dec. 1. Declining TLT price means rising interest rates.
- GLD (precious metals) is showing a bear pps signal on a drop of 3 from yesterday's all time high. Confirmed by the mfi.
- VIX (fear index) in bear mode, and steady. A bearish VIX is bullish for stocks.
- EUR/USD (dollars per euro) trending sideways in pps bull mode unconfirmed by the rsi (which is also sideways).
- USD/JPY (yen per dollar) rising in bull mode. It fell immediately after the signal was given on Nov. 12 and is only now recovering the signal level.
- GLD may be a candidate for a short open today. See the indicators section.
- IWM, MSFT, ORCL are all in bull mode and trading at resistance.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
12/3 Watchlist
Some new stocks to look at from among those trading 5 million shares or more at this point in the market day:
(pps bull signals)
HGSI since July has had the pattern of moving sideways until earnings, when it gaps up. No earnings are pending, so I think it's a trade only for a calendar spread at strike 28.
RIMM has been trading in a downward pattern since a large gap down in early October. I would reject the pps signal as contrary to the trend.
HIG has been trading sideways since early October, a pause in an upward trend that began in March. Shares are trading at 24.60 with upside resistance at just below 30 and support at about 23. An attractive possibility.
(pps bear signals)
USB has paused in an upward trend since March. I would reject the trade as contrarian.
ARO gapped down on earnings today and is below resistance. I would expect a pause at this point and perhaps an attempt to fill in the gap, so I wouldn't enter this trade now. It does have a lot of room on the downside, however.
ANF shows a sharp downward move to below the 20-day simple moving average in the midst of an upward trend. This is in line with its pattern over the past year of stair-stepping up. Possibly a good bull trade at the next pps signal.
SBUX has been essentially flat since mid-August. The Bollinger bands are narrowing, suggesting a change.. My best guess is that the change would be to resume the uptrend that has held since March.
My earlier watchlist stocks:
(pps bull signals)
IWM down today, trading at 59.68. Upside resistance is at 60.75, so there's not a lot of potential there.
MSFT is trading at 30, about at resistance. It is still unconfirmed by the mfi, which is pointing down.
ORCL has moved up to resistance, exhausting its potential on this leg.
(pps bear signals)
CHK is at 23.20, with resistance at about 22.80 and an upward trending mfi. No joy.
(former problem child)
GLD remains about where it was yesterday, when I closed.
Holdings:
KO is dropping back toward profitability in my iron triangle, which spans from 57.50 to 52.50.
UNG stands right below the profitability point in its covered call (a short call option plus long shares).
Trading decisions after 3:30 p.m. EST (12:30 p.m. PST).
(pps bull signals)
HGSI since July has had the pattern of moving sideways until earnings, when it gaps up. No earnings are pending, so I think it's a trade only for a calendar spread at strike 28.
RIMM has been trading in a downward pattern since a large gap down in early October. I would reject the pps signal as contrary to the trend.
HIG has been trading sideways since early October, a pause in an upward trend that began in March. Shares are trading at 24.60 with upside resistance at just below 30 and support at about 23. An attractive possibility.
(pps bear signals)
USB has paused in an upward trend since March. I would reject the trade as contrarian.
ARO gapped down on earnings today and is below resistance. I would expect a pause at this point and perhaps an attempt to fill in the gap, so I wouldn't enter this trade now. It does have a lot of room on the downside, however.
ANF shows a sharp downward move to below the 20-day simple moving average in the midst of an upward trend. This is in line with its pattern over the past year of stair-stepping up. Possibly a good bull trade at the next pps signal.
SBUX has been essentially flat since mid-August. The Bollinger bands are narrowing, suggesting a change.. My best guess is that the change would be to resume the uptrend that has held since March.
My earlier watchlist stocks:
(pps bull signals)
IWM down today, trading at 59.68. Upside resistance is at 60.75, so there's not a lot of potential there.
MSFT is trading at 30, about at resistance. It is still unconfirmed by the mfi, which is pointing down.
ORCL has moved up to resistance, exhausting its potential on this leg.
(pps bear signals)
CHK is at 23.20, with resistance at about 22.80 and an upward trending mfi. No joy.
(former problem child)
GLD remains about where it was yesterday, when I closed.
Holdings:
KO is dropping back toward profitability in my iron triangle, which spans from 57.50 to 52.50.
UNG stands right below the profitability point in its covered call (a short call option plus long shares).
Trading decisions after 3:30 p.m. EST (12:30 p.m. PST).
12/3 Morningline
(All analyses use the pps/mfi except currencies, which use the pps/rsi.)
Holdings:
The VIX (fear index) has opened at about yesterday's close after a five-day decline that puts it in the range of the lowest levels of the past three months.
Currencies:
My losing bear trade, closed yesterday, was based on analysis using Bollinger bands with the money flow index. If GLD gets a reversal signal from the pps/mfi combo, I'll need to decide whether to re-open a bearish position in GLD. I'll be watching for that possibility today.
Holdings:
- KO is holding about about the same level as yesterday.
- UNG is at 8.62, about at my basis.
- IWM will be a bullish position if it bumps past resistance at about 60.74
- MSFT (bull) is at resistance, with the pps indicator unconfirmed by an mfi upturn.
- ORCL (bull) also at resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi direction.
- CHK (bear) holding steady at yesterday's close, and the mfi has turned upward, negating the pps signal.
- BK (bull) is rising toward resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi.
- SPY (blue chips) remains in bull mode, confirmed by the mfi, but with little change in price since the pps signal was given five days ago.
- TLT (Treasury long bonds) remains in bear mode, with a gap down this morning that returns the price to its low of Nov. 23. Interest rates move the opposite of the TLT price.
- GLD (gold) is steady at about our exit point of yesteday, in pps bull mode confirmed by the mfi.
The VIX (fear index) has opened at about yesterday's close after a five-day decline that puts it in the range of the lowest levels of the past three months.
Currencies:
- EUR/USD (Dollars per Euro) is in pps bull mode with the rsi, like the price, trending sideways.
- USD/JPY (Yen per Dollar) is in pps bull mode, and prices have actually begun to rise, after falling for 11 days after the pps signal was given. The rsi is also rising.
My losing bear trade, closed yesterday, was based on analysis using Bollinger bands with the money flow index. If GLD gets a reversal signal from the pps/mfi combo, I'll need to decide whether to re-open a bearish position in GLD. I'll be watching for that possibility today.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)