1/4 Watchlist

Problem-child SBUX, which I entered as a January bull put spread (p22.5/-p24), continues to trade down. It's about 6 cents above support. If it breaks through, I'll close the position.

The pps bull signal on LVS, which I hold as a January covered call, continues to exist. No impact on the position.

Otherwise, my holdings are where I want them to be.

Among the indicators, SPY shows a pps bull signal, after showing a bear signal on Dec. 31, the last trading day. It is trading slightly high than the previous trading day's high.

JNK continues to show a pps bull signal on an increase, as does GLD.

USO, the oil etf, remains at the level it gapped up to this morning, but shows to signal. The closely related energy sector etf, XLE, shows the gap and a pps signal, but a pretty sorry trend profile. Any bullish position on XLE would be a counter-trend strategy.

Among the currencies, EUR/USD continues to show a pps bull signal, but it is unsupported by the trend.

Scanning the high-volume etfs for those showing signals and a supporting trend

• QQQQ, pps bull signal one trading day after a bear signal
• EEM, gap up on the 5th day after a pps bull signal; stochastic bull
  
• IWM, pps bull one trading day after a bear
  
• VWO, gap up and bull signals on the macd and stochastic while crossing above the 20-day moving average. No pps signal, and the trend is sideways. 

Of these, I find QQQQ to be the most interesting. But, first day of trading, sort of an unusual day by definition. I shall wait and see (while watching the Qs and the oils closely).

I didn't find a lot to like on the stocks. Mainly, there were a lot of gaps up and signals whipsawing bear signals last week, and not supported by the trend. So, no trades. I'll wait and see.

• T, pps bull, also existing bull signals on macd and stochastic
• MS, pps bull and an existing macd bull and ma20 breakthrough; its a counter-trend trade at  this point, but the power of the gap up suggests a new trend forming.
• NVS, significant gap down after a pps bear signal the prior trading day, amid a sideways trend.

Topics:, S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, gold, oil, petroleum, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, iShares emerging markets, Russell 2000, Vanguard emerging markets, AT&T telecommunications telcon, Morgan Stanley banking, Novartis Switzerland health care.

12/17 Watchlist

A new bull signal on Treasury long bonds (TLT), and a bear signal on gold (GLD). Otherwise, nothing to add to this morning's discussion of the indicators.

No new signals on the currency pairs (EUR/USD and USD/JPY)

Among holdings:

Three January bull positons -- AET, HPQ, VALE -- have pulled back from peaks. I'm thinking of closing the positions.

LVS, a January covered call, is showing a bear signal, and prices remain in a sideways range.

KO, a January iron condor, has moved back in to max profit territory.

UNG, my December covered call, is trading well above 10. The call is a 9 strike, so the position will be exercised by whoever bought the call.

High-volume stocks and etfs priced $20 and above:

• QQQQ, bear signal, uptrend
  
• EEM, bear with a downward gap, uptrend
  
• JPM, bear, downtrend, but already at resistance
  
• MSFT, bear, uptrend
  
• MJN, bear,sideways trend, on the fourth day following a bull signal; confused puppy mode
• FCX, bear, amid a sharp pullback following an uptrend, the day following a bull signal; drunken sailor mode
• PG, bear, uptrend, on the fourth day following a bull signal (no more metaphors)
  
• FDX, bear, uptrend, on a gap down following earnings
• VWO, bear on a gap down, uptrend
  
• MOS, bear, sideways with some deep fluctuations
  
• DTV, bear, uptrend
  
• IVV, bear, uptrend
  
• XLI, bear, uptrend
  
• XLV, bear, uptrend
  
• VOD, bear, uptrend
  
• AXP, bear, uptrend
  
• GPS, bear (but no gap), trend change (maybe) from up to down
  
• DIA, bear, uptrend
  
• COF, bear, sideways following a strong uptrend
  

So, all in all, a fairly broad switch into bear mode. A lot of the stocks, not just those noted above, showed whipsaws from bull to bear the last few days. With the holiday trading week coming up, closing questionable positions is the prudent course.

JPM is the only trend following trade  in the batch, and since it is already at resistance, I don't find it to be compelling.

No covered call scan today.

12/8 Watchlist

I've found one possibly decent trade, and that one ambiguous, after scanning all etfs and stocks with volume of 5,000,000 and up for pps signals, status of mfi confirmation by direction, and the trend.

The one possibility is AET, which showing a bull pps signal, confirmed by the direction of the mfi. True, the stock has been in a sideways trend since March, but the bull signal is coming at the top of a fluctuation cycle that has been running about a month measured peak to peak.

AET is not yet quit at resistance, and I want to see what happens. If the price breaks above 31.25, then it might be a trade a for me.

Here's the reject list, showing pps signals with status of mfi confirmation by direction and trend:

• SPY, bear, confirmed, sideways
• EEM, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• MSFT, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  
• ORCL,  bear, confirmed, sideways
• MRK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• HD, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• XLI, bear, confirmed, sideways
• ITUB, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• DIA, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• PG, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLP, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• VWO, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• TWX, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement on news
• BBD, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement

I've rejected the sideways trenders (except AET, as described above) because they tend to be too short term for my purposes. My ideal options position will be short (i.e., I sold the options)  and will last for 30 days and trend in my direction, giving me a bump from both the price rise and theta decay.


I also rejected the counter-trend retracements, since my present strategy is to trade with the larger trend.

In today's scan, I gave little thought to mfi confirmation. There was just so much not to like that the mfi became irrelevant.

In my holdings:

HPQ has lost the bear signal it showed at the opening this morning and has barely budged during the day. So, no action appears necessary.

X is looking nicely bearish in line with my position.

UNG, at 0.46 above the strike of my 9.00 covered call, is showing a bull signal. For tomorrow I'll do  calculation of when (if) it makes sense to sell the call and retain the shares rather than waiting for exercise.

KO, in bull mode with a sideways price, remains at the top of max profitability of my iron condor.

The indicators -- SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY -- remain as described in the Morningline.