Shares in large companies (SPY) opened 0.4% above yesterday's high and then rose a couple of cents to $115.97 before dropping backing back, using the $115.60 level as support on the low-level chart. After that, SPY turned jittery.
SPY moved up to $15.70 as support and then moved down toward resistance at $115.14.
Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) opened in the middle of Thursday's range and stayed their, barely changing from today's initial price.
None of my other indicators showed breakouts (or breakdowns) from yesterday's trading ranges, and the technical signals for all indicators, SPY included, remain as they have been.
Showing posts with label T. Show all posts
Showing posts with label T. Show all posts
Friday, March 12, 2010
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Closed T bull put spread
I've closed my March bull put spread on T with the stock at $25.57, or 1.1% above the entry point.
It cost me a 51-cent debit to buy back the options, so my profit on the trade was 9 cents, or 17.6%.
I had opened the position on Monday, so not bad for four days work.
It cost me a 51-cent debit to buy back the options, so my profit on the trade was 9 cents, or 17.6%.
I had opened the position on Monday, so not bad for four days work.
3/11 Morningline
Blue chip stocks (SPY) and Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) opened in the middle of Wednesday's ranges, as though hung over from that day's excesses.
SPY on Wednesday slightly overshot its high of Jan. 14 but failed to establish that price, $115.14, as a new support level.
Will SPY again attempt to pierce that major resistance and resume the bull market that began in March 2009? Will SPY, despondent, sink back into beardom? Or will it stay put, embracing boredom as the price goes nowhere?
The morning's theme song is from the 1934 Cole Porter: "Anything Goes".
SPY on Wednesday slightly overshot its high of Jan. 14 but failed to establish that price, $115.14, as a new support level.
Will SPY again attempt to pierce that major resistance and resume the bull market that began in March 2009? Will SPY, despondent, sink back into beardom? Or will it stay put, embracing boredom as the price goes nowhere?
The morning's theme song is from the 1934 Cole Porter: "Anything Goes".
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
3/10 Watchlist
The exchange traded fund SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, is trading at $115.14 at this moment (2:28 p.m. Eastern), exactly the level of the Jan. 14 high that ended, for the moment, a 10-month rise in the market.
The price pierced the $115.14 resistance level several times during the day, peaking at $115.28 at 11:03 a.m. Each time it drew back to and below resistance.
At no point so far today that I can discern did $115.14 become a support level. And that's really the key to judging today's action, for $115.14 must be transformed from resistance to support for today's move to truly count as a higher high and resumption of the bull market that began in March 2009.
What SPY needed was some alchemy to change resistance lead into support gold.
The price pierced the $115.14 resistance level several times during the day, peaking at $115.28 at 11:03 a.m. Each time it drew back to and below resistance.
I'm reading this book, and it is so excellent.
At no point so far today that I can discern did $115.14 become a support level. And that's really the key to judging today's action, for $115.14 must be transformed from resistance to support for today's move to truly count as a higher high and resumption of the bull market that began in March 2009.
What SPY needed was some alchemy to change resistance lead into support gold.
3/10 Morningline
Blue chip stocks (SPY) continue to tease the high set Jan. 14.
The magic number is $115.14. If SPY moves through that level (and stays above it), then the bull market that began a year ago continues. If the price pulls back and never exceeds that level, then the 72% rise will count as just a bear market correction.
The next significant resistance above $115.14 is around $130, so the easy money in the event of a bull move is 13%.
Treasury long-term bonds are trading at the bottom of yesterday's range with a new psar bear signal. The pps flashed bear on Friday, and the macd on Monday.
The magic number is $115.14. If SPY moves through that level (and stays above it), then the bull market that began a year ago continues. If the price pulls back and never exceeds that level, then the 72% rise will count as just a bear market correction.
Abbreviations:
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
The next significant resistance above $115.14 is around $130, so the easy money in the event of a bull move is 13%.
Treasury long-term bonds are trading at the bottom of yesterday's range with a new psar bear signal. The pps flashed bear on Friday, and the macd on Monday.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
3/10 Almanac
Wednesday, March 10, is 9 days before March options expire, 37 the April and 72 the May.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $114.46, up 0.02% from the prior close.
In total, 3.3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, up 6.5 from the day before.
On the jump, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $114.46, up 0.02% from the prior close.
In total, 3.3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, up 6.5 from the day before.
On the jump, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...
3/9 Watchlist
Blue chip stocks (SPY) pushed up to within 15 cents of the Jan. 14 high, close enough that if you squint your eyes, it counts as a 100 percent retracement of the decline from $115.14 down to $104.58 on Feb. 5.
A move above $115.14 creates a new high and confirms continuation of the uptrend that began in March 2009 at $67.10.
For SPY, all skies as sunny, all rainbows bright and all technical signals are bullish, at least the ones that I follow.
The long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), by contrast, continue to soak under a chilly drizzle of the sort found only in the Pacific Northwest in a March where the promise of spring-to-come remains unkept.
A move above $115.14 creates a new high and confirms continuation of the uptrend that began in March 2009 at $67.10.
For SPY, all skies as sunny, all rainbows bright and all technical signals are bullish, at least the ones that I follow.
The long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), by contrast, continue to soak under a chilly drizzle of the sort found only in the Pacific Northwest in a March where the promise of spring-to-come remains unkept.
3/9 Morningline
Gold (GLD) is showing a psar bear signal this morning, a day after a pps bear signal. Today's signal came on a gap down that saw GLD open 0.7% below Monday's close.
The macd remains in bull territory although it is in its fourth day of decline toward the zero line. The sto on Monday moved below the overbought line, a bear signal.
Otherwise, my major indicators are opening barely changed and trading in a narrow range: Blue chip stocks(SPY) down, Treasury long-term bonds (TLT), oil (USO) down, everywhere a global yawn except for the dollar-yen (USD/JPY) currency pair, which saw the dollar decline 0.8% against the Japanese currency.
The macd remains in bull territory although it is in its fourth day of decline toward the zero line. The sto on Monday moved below the overbought line, a bear signal.
Abbreviations:
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
Otherwise, my major indicators are opening barely changed and trading in a narrow range: Blue chip stocks(SPY) down, Treasury long-term bonds (TLT), oil (USO) down, everywhere a global yawn except for the dollar-yen (USD/JPY) currency pair, which saw the dollar decline 0.8% against the Japanese currency.
Monday, March 8, 2010
3/9 Almanac
Tuesday, March 9, is 10 days before March options expire, 38 the April and 73 the May.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $114.27, down 0.03% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 8.8 from the day before.
On the jump, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $114.27, down 0.03% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 8.8 from the day before.
On the jump, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...
3/8 Watchlist
The markets are marking time today. There's little change in my indicators since this morning. I've added the telcom company AT&T to the Watchlist, as well as to my holdings, and kicked Texas Instruments off the island.
The watchlist.
The watchlist.
Opened T bull put spread
I've opened a bull position on T, with the stock priced at $25.30.
The structure is a March bull put spread, long the $25 strike and short the $26. It produced a premium of 60 cents credit. Interestingly, going a month further out, to the April options, only added 6 cents to the premium.
The maximum profit at expiry, 10 days hence, comes at $26 or above. That price is below near-term resistance.
See my earlier analysis, "T bull signals", for my reasoning for entering th is position.
The structure is a March bull put spread, long the $25 strike and short the $26. It produced a premium of 60 cents credit. Interestingly, going a month further out, to the April options, only added 6 cents to the premium.
The maximum profit at expiry, 10 days hence, comes at $26 or above. That price is below near-term resistance.
See my earlier analysis, "T bull signals", for my reasoning for entering th is position.
T bull signals
The telcom company T rose briskly today, covering 1.8% low to high. The chart shows simultaneous psar and pps bull signals. The macd has been in bull mode since Feb. 9 with no accompanying price rise.
The move puts T at the top level of resistance set in February. With some resistance along the way, the stock has a shot at the $28.73 high set on Jan. 5.
The move puts T at the top level of resistance set in February. With some resistance along the way, the stock has a shot at the $28.73 high set on Jan. 5.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
2/9 Watchlist
SPY (blue chip stocks) whipsawed higher and lower before retreating to the upper end of yesterday's trading range. Altogether, the exchange-traded fund plowed through three-quarters of a percent, low to high.
Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) are down, indicating an expectation of higher interest rates ahead.
Crude oil (USO) has gapped up and is trading 3% above yesterday's close. Gold (GLD) is also on the rise, as are emerging markets.
The dollar is up smartly above the euro (EUR/USD), but against the yen is holding close to yesterday's trading range.
To the scans. Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .
Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) are down, indicating an expectation of higher interest rates ahead.
Crude oil (USO) has gapped up and is trading 3% above yesterday's close. Gold (GLD) is also on the rise, as are emerging markets.
The dollar is up smartly above the euro (EUR/USD), but against the yen is holding close to yesterday's trading range.
To the scans. Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
1/6 Watchlist
Treasury long bonds (TLT) are declining in price, contrary to yesterday's pps bull signal. Otherwise, all indicators are in line with the signals noted in the Morningline.
The dollar is rising against the yen (USD/JPY), contrary to yesterday's pps bear signal, but remains nearly contained within the prior day's range. The stochastic is in bear mode, and the macd is heading that way. The 20-day moving average is rising and is above its 50-day counterpart.
The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) is in the ninth day of a sideways move.
My holding are marking time, except for MRVL, which shows a small rise. My positions is a bull put spread (p20/-p22.5).
Also interesting among the high-volume . . .
The dollar is rising against the yen (USD/JPY), contrary to yesterday's pps bear signal, but remains nearly contained within the prior day's range. The stochastic is in bear mode, and the macd is heading that way. The 20-day moving average is rising and is above its 50-day counterpart.
The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) is in the ninth day of a sideways move.
My holding are marking time, except for MRVL, which shows a small rise. My positions is a bull put spread (p20/-p22.5).
Also interesting among the high-volume . . .
Monday, January 4, 2010
1/4 Watchlist
Problem-child SBUX, which I entered as a January bull put spread (p22.5/-p24), continues to trade down. It's about 6 cents above support. If it breaks through, I'll close the position.
The pps bull signal on LVS, which I hold as a January covered call, continues to exist. No impact on the position.
Otherwise, my holdings are where I want them to be.
Among the indicators, SPY shows a pps bull signal, after showing a bear signal on Dec. 31, the last trading day. It is trading slightly high than the previous trading day's high.
JNK continues to show a pps bull signal on an increase, as does GLD.
USO, the oil etf, remains at the level it gapped up to this morning, but shows to signal. The closely related energy sector etf, XLE, shows the gap and a pps signal, but a pretty sorry trend profile. Any bullish position on XLE would be a counter-trend strategy.
Among the currencies, EUR/USD continues to show a pps bull signal, but it is unsupported by the trend.
Scanning the high-volume etfs for those showing signals and a supporting trend
I didn't find a lot to like on the stocks. Mainly, there were a lot of gaps up and signals whipsawing bear signals last week, and not supported by the trend. So, no trades. I'll wait and see.
Topics:, S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, gold, oil, petroleum, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, iShares emerging markets, Russell 2000, Vanguard emerging markets, AT&T telecommunications telcon, Morgan Stanley banking, Novartis Switzerland health care.
The pps bull signal on LVS, which I hold as a January covered call, continues to exist. No impact on the position.
Otherwise, my holdings are where I want them to be.
Among the indicators, SPY shows a pps bull signal, after showing a bear signal on Dec. 31, the last trading day. It is trading slightly high than the previous trading day's high.
JNK continues to show a pps bull signal on an increase, as does GLD.
USO, the oil etf, remains at the level it gapped up to this morning, but shows to signal. The closely related energy sector etf, XLE, shows the gap and a pps signal, but a pretty sorry trend profile. Any bullish position on XLE would be a counter-trend strategy.
Among the currencies, EUR/USD continues to show a pps bull signal, but it is unsupported by the trend.
Scanning the high-volume etfs for those showing signals and a supporting trend
- QQQQ, pps bull signal one trading day after a bear signal
- EEM, gap up on the 5th day after a pps bull signal; stochastic bull
- IWM, pps bull one trading day after a bear
- VWO, gap up and bull signals on the macd and stochastic while crossing above the 20-day moving average. No pps signal, and the trend is sideways.
I didn't find a lot to like on the stocks. Mainly, there were a lot of gaps up and signals whipsawing bear signals last week, and not supported by the trend. So, no trades. I'll wait and see.
- T, pps bull, also existing bull signals on macd and stochastic
- MS, pps bull and an existing macd bull and ma20 breakthrough; its a counter-trend trade at this point, but the power of the gap up suggests a new trend forming.
- NVS, significant gap down after a pps bear signal the prior trading day, amid a sideways trend.
Topics:, S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, gold, oil, petroleum, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, iShares emerging markets, Russell 2000, Vanguard emerging markets, AT&T telecommunications telcon, Morgan Stanley banking, Novartis Switzerland health care.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
12/15 Watchlist
Indicators, currency pairs and holdings are showing no new signals since the Morningline.
Mobile phone companies showed bear signals after reports that Google plans to enter the cellphone hardware and service business. Among the high-volume stocks and etfs:
BBY, VZ and T might be playable on the next bull signal, if accompanied by price/volume confirmation, but the bear signal is counter-trend, something I'm avoiding these days.
The rest are either counter-trend or stocks going nowhere, and so don't pique my interest.
Looking more closely at my holdings:
UNG, my remaining December option, just keeps rising. In hindsight, better to have held the shares rather than hedging with a covered call (-c9). Go figure. Even so, I'll profit from the covered call when the shares are drawn away from me after the option's last trading day, Friday.
At current prices, it would cost net 0.14 to exit UNG and the covered call, against a net 0.39 profit if I wait until expiry.
The bull put spreads:
KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60), sits at a resistance level set in May 2008 and remains above max profitability, proving yet again that an iron condor has double the risk of beaking your heart. It can be unprofitable on both the upside and the downside.
Mobile phone companies showed bear signals after reports that Google plans to enter the cellphone hardware and service business. Among the high-volume stocks and etfs:
- BBY, bear signal on a gap down following earnings guidance; the stock has shown three signals in five days. The stock has been on an uptrend since June, so a bull signal after a pullback would be playable.
- VZ, bear, uptrend since October
- T, bear, uptrend since July
- GILD, bear, pretty much sideways since February
- XLE, bull, downtrend since October
- BK, bear, sideways, mainly, all year
- FLR, bull, downtrend since July
BBY, VZ and T might be playable on the next bull signal, if accompanied by price/volume confirmation, but the bear signal is counter-trend, something I'm avoiding these days.
The rest are either counter-trend or stocks going nowhere, and so don't pique my interest.
Looking more closely at my holdings:
UNG, my remaining December option, just keeps rising. In hindsight, better to have held the shares rather than hedging with a covered call (-c9). Go figure. Even so, I'll profit from the covered call when the shares are drawn away from me after the option's last trading day, Friday.
At current prices, it would cost net 0.14 to exit UNG and the covered call, against a net 0.39 profit if I wait until expiry.
The bull put spreads:
- AET (p31/-p32) is bumping up against resistance set last January. I'm holding for now but will close at the first sign of a price pullback.
- HPQ (p49/-p50) has hit resistance set in November, and I'll be fairly hair-trigger about closing that position as well.
- VALE (p30/-p31) is trading within the range set yesterday, when I opened the position
KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60), sits at a resistance level set in May 2008 and remains above max profitability, proving yet again that an iron condor has double the risk of beaking your heart. It can be unprofitable on both the upside and the downside.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
12/9 Watchlist
New signals among the high-volume stocks and etfs, with pps signal, mfi confirmation status, and price pattern:
Or, as the option addict Jeff Kohler said yesterday in a plaintiff scream of agony, "Get me the hell out of this range. Please."
AET, which was on yesterday's watchlist with a bull signal, opened this morning at upside resistance and then declined to within yesterday's trading range. It didn't decisively pierce resistance, so no trade.
My holdings:
X, a January bear call spread (c41/-c40), is showing a bull signal with a push up to near-term resistance. If it pushes through, I'm closing.
HPQ, a January bull put spread (p49/-p50), is showing a bull signal today, after a bear signal yesterday. The issue is clearly in super-whipsaw mode, as it has given three signals in four days. I'll hang on for now pending some sort of price confirmation.
UNG and KO are about where they were in the morningline.
No new signals on the indicators.
The USD/JPY currency pair continues to show a bear signal confirmed by the rsi.
- TXN, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- PEP, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- T, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
- WMT, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
Or, as the option addict Jeff Kohler said yesterday in a plaintiff scream of agony, "Get me the hell out of this range. Please."
AET, which was on yesterday's watchlist with a bull signal, opened this morning at upside resistance and then declined to within yesterday's trading range. It didn't decisively pierce resistance, so no trade.
My holdings:
X, a January bear call spread (c41/-c40), is showing a bull signal with a push up to near-term resistance. If it pushes through, I'm closing.
HPQ, a January bull put spread (p49/-p50), is showing a bull signal today, after a bear signal yesterday. The issue is clearly in super-whipsaw mode, as it has given three signals in four days. I'll hang on for now pending some sort of price confirmation.
UNG and KO are about where they were in the morningline.
No new signals on the indicators.
The USD/JPY currency pair continues to show a bear signal confirmed by the rsi.
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