3/10 Watchlist

The exchange traded fund SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, is trading at $115.14 at this moment (2:28 p.m. Eastern), exactly the level of the Jan. 14 high that ended, for the moment, a 10-month rise in the market.

The price pierced the $115.14 resistance level several times during the day, peaking at $115.28 at 11:03 a.m. Each time it drew back to and below resistance.

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At no point so far today that I can discern did $115.14 become a support level. And that's really the key to judging today's action, for $115.14 must be transformed from resistance to support for today's move to truly count as a higher high and resumption of the bull market that began in March 2009.

What SPY needed was some alchemy to change resistance lead into support gold.

3/9 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) pushed up to within 15 cents of the Jan. 14 high, close enough that if you squint your eyes, it counts as a 100 percent retracement of the decline from $115.14 down to $104.58 on Feb. 5.

A move above $115.14 creates a new high and confirms continuation of the uptrend that began in March 2009 at $67.10.

For SPY, all skies as sunny, all rainbows bright and all technical signals are bullish, at least the ones that I follow.

The long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), by contrast, continue to soak under a chilly drizzle of the sort found only in the Pacific Northwest in a March where the promise of spring-to-come remains unkept.

3/8 Watchlist

The markets are marking time today. There's little change in my indicators since this morning. I've added the telcom company AT&T to the Watchlist, as well as to my holdings, and kicked Texas Instruments off the island.

The watchlist.

3/5 Watchlist

A very late posting because of connectivity problems earlier today.

Blue chip stocks (SPY) traversed 1.1% low to high today after gapping up at the open. Today's high was 1.4% above yesterday's.

The move propelled SPY to within 0.8% of the $115.14 high that ended a 10-month run-up beginning at $67.10 in March 2009.

3/4 Watchlist

The indicators continue in the paths they entered at the open. Just another day in low-volatility paradise. (I, however, am a high volatility person. This little touch of Heaven, for my style of trading, reeks a bit like Hell.)

The watchlist.

3/3 Watchlist

Every time I look at the blue chips chart today, my brain just swings into a rendition of the itsy bitsy spider song. You know the one, "Itsy bitsy spider, climbed up the water spout".

Today's SPY candlestick looks like an itsy bitsy spider hanging by a silken thread from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line.

Of course, we all remember the next line of the song: "Down came the rain, and washed the spider out," no doubt at least to the 61.8% retracement level.

Who'd'a thought that Fibonacci retracements could be applied to spider analysis.

EWT psar bull signal

The Taiwan shares exchange-traded fund (EWT) is showing a psar bull signal, after four days of a bear signal, and 10 days of a bull signal before that.

I think it qualifies as a whipsaw. The signal is coming as the price trades narrowly at the top of resistance set on Feb. 18.

1/12 Watchlist: SPY, many etfs show bear signals; Fear flies;

Blue chips (SPY) show a pps bear signal on a decline of 1.1% from Monday's close. The mfi and stochastic are falling toward their respective 80-lines. The macd remains in bull territory. The price remains above the 20-day moving average.

The decline is consistent with a minor pullback within an uptrend that began in early March 2008. A decline below the ma20 would suggest a larger decline, such as that seen in June and July last year, as well as in September, October and November.

The blue chips' bear signal coincides with a gap up and sharp rise in volatility (VIX, the fear index). It is trading 9.2% above Monday's close.

Gold (GLD) also shows a bear signal and a 2.2% drop from yesterday's close, with the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average but the price above the 50-day. Oil (USO) shows a similar pattern with a pps bear signal.

Bear signals all over the major exchange-traded funds. See below

Otherwise, the signals on indicators and currencies remain as described in the Morningline.

Here's what's interesting among high-volume . . .

12/16 Watchlist

Today it is 30 days before expiration of the January options, which means we're into prime time for covered calls. I'll be taking at look today and in subsequent Watchlists at high-volume stocks priced below $20 showing signals that might make them good covered call candidates. See the end of this posting.

A covered call stock needs to meet these criteria:

• Slightly bullish to neutral prospects. I.e., I don't want the shares to come crashing down, but I also don't want them to have huge rise.
• Price sufficiently low so that I can afford 100 shares. Calls come in 100-share units, so there's no way to sell a call against fewer than 100 shares.
• Volume sufficient to provide liquidity. Basically, the higher the better, but not below 1 million shares.

 Indicators:

USO is showing a bull signal on a 2.6 percent rise followed by a partial pullback. The trend has been sideways since June. Otherwise, no new indicator signals.

No new signals from the currency pairs or my holdings.

High-volume stocks and etfs priced at 20 or greater:

• CVS, bear signal, sideways trend since a huge gap down in November
• KR, bull, sideways since a huge gap down on Dec. 8
• BRCM, bull on a 4% rise, up since November
• EBAY, bull, down since September
• CIT, bear, unknown trend after five trading days since shares resumed trading
• ESRX, bear on a 4.7% fall, up since March; shares are trading where they were on Nov. 30, so it's not as apocalypic as it might sound.
• MHS, bear on 4.6% fall, up since March
• BBD, bear, up since March
• BA, bear, up since March (with some fairly deep pullbacks)
  

ESRX and MHS fell on news reports that healthcare would face increased regulation under Obama's policies. Duh.

The bear signals on those two issues are counter-trend, but I shall look hard at them at the next bull signal.

BRCM's with-the-trend bull signal pushes prices to upside resistance, the second test of those levels in the past four days. A possible trade if it breaks above 32.


High-volume shares and etfs below $20 that are possible covered-call candidates:

• GE, 15.71, bear mode, sideways since October,
• EWJ, 10.03, bull, sideways since September (with deep pullbacks)
• EWT, 12.40, bear, sideways since August
• LVS, 15.88, bull yesterday, sideways since July

All of these have 200-day moving averages that are turning up. GE has a 0.39 premium on the January 16 strike calls, and LVS a 1.09 premium on the 16-strike. Of the two, I would go for the premium and sell a covered call against LVS.