Treasury long bonds (TLT) are declining in price, contrary to yesterday's pps bull signal. Otherwise, all indicators are in line with the signals noted in the Morningline.
The dollar is rising against the yen (USD/JPY), contrary to yesterday's pps bear signal, but remains nearly contained within the prior day's range. The stochastic is in bear mode, and the macd is heading that way. The 20-day moving average is rising and is above its 50-day counterpart.
The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) is in the ninth day of a sideways move.
My holding are marking time, except for MRVL, which shows a small rise. My positions is a bull put spread (p20/-p22.5).
Also interesting among the high-volume . . .
Showing posts with label EWJ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EWJ. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Monthly Breakouts
I'm following up my discussion on Dec. 31 on long-term trading.
In my year-end review, I showed the blue chips (SPY) on a chart showing prices by month and analyzed them using a 12-month simple moving average.
The result showed that four trades based on that method would have turned what was a 23% loss for the decade of the 20-zeroes into a 78% gain.
The rules are:
I also scanned for etfs and shares that, having given signals within the last nine months, were trading around the entry price:
I haven't done a rigorous back-testing of this method. It looked like a pretty good match on SPY, but any moving-average crossover method will give whipsaws on occasion, and of course entering months after any signal is a riskier proposition.
Still, I think it's an interesting approach, and one worth looking at if you have some money that you're wanting to park for the longer term.
One ideal use would be to enter and exit a high-dividend fund, like JNK, which tracks junk bonds and is presently yielding 11.18% in dividends, or AOD, which also seeks dividend income and is yielding 16.14%.
You would profit from the dividends during bull periods, as well as, in theory, from capital gains, and also avoid the capital losses that wipe out dividend profits.
(I own both AOD and JNK for the longer-term money that I don't use for trading. My entry was after the bull signals, with little price gain between signal and entry for AOD and an 11% gain for JNK.)
Topics: Exxon-Mobil, Kroger, Research in Motion, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp, Kraft, oil, petroleum, groceries, Blackberry, bank, bonds, Ultrashort Treasuries, SPDR, Spiders, S&P 500, 401(k), IRA, Individual Retirement Account.
In my year-end review, I showed the blue chips (SPY) on a chart showing prices by month and analyzed them using a 12-month simple moving average.
The result showed that four trades based on that method would have turned what was a 23% loss for the decade of the 20-zeroes into a 78% gain.
The rules are:
- If the bar (or candlestick) during a month crosses the 12-month moving average, then
- Open a bull position if the closing price on the last day of the month is above the moving average.
- Open a bear position if the closing price on the last day of the month is below the 12-month moving average.
- Close the position under one or more of these circumstances:
- The price closes on the opposite side of the moving average from the price at which the position was opened.
- The price crosses a stop/loss set at a distance from the opening price of twice the average trading range over the last three months.
I also scanned for etfs and shares that, having given signals within the last nine months, were trading around the entry price:
I haven't done a rigorous back-testing of this method. It looked like a pretty good match on SPY, but any moving-average crossover method will give whipsaws on occasion, and of course entering months after any signal is a riskier proposition.
Still, I think it's an interesting approach, and one worth looking at if you have some money that you're wanting to park for the longer term.
One ideal use would be to enter and exit a high-dividend fund, like JNK, which tracks junk bonds and is presently yielding 11.18% in dividends, or AOD, which also seeks dividend income and is yielding 16.14%.
You would profit from the dividends during bull periods, as well as, in theory, from capital gains, and also avoid the capital losses that wipe out dividend profits.
(I own both AOD and JNK for the longer-term money that I don't use for trading. My entry was after the bull signals, with little price gain between signal and entry for AOD and an 11% gain for JNK.)
Topics: Exxon-Mobil, Kroger, Research in Motion, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp, Kraft, oil, petroleum, groceries, Blackberry, bank, bonds, Ultrashort Treasuries, SPDR, Spiders, S&P 500, 401(k), IRA, Individual Retirement Account.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
12/22 Watchlist
No new signals on the indicators, currencies or holdings. Every issue's volume is low.
The pre-close scan, through the end of December, will cover only high-volume etfs (5 million shares and higher in volume), excluding those that are contrarian and those that multiply the underlying. The list will be smaller than usual because of lower volume in the holiday week.
Just for the exercise, today I'll be looking at several technical tools: The Persons proprietary signal (pps), which is my usual tool of choice, but also the price piercing the 20-day moving average (ma20), piercing the 200-day moving average (ma200), 20-day and 200-day moving average crossovers (ma cross), money-flow index (mfi) moves into overbought or oversold territory, the moving average convergence-divergence (macd) and the slow stocastic (sto).
The macd is one of the more sensitive indicators -- this is known. The pps is said by its developer to give earlier valid signals than the others. If that's the case, then today's signals must be whipsaws. I'll continue the multi-track for awhile and we shall see.
Nothing here I would want to trade.
The pre-close scan, through the end of December, will cover only high-volume etfs (5 million shares and higher in volume), excluding those that are contrarian and those that multiply the underlying. The list will be smaller than usual because of lower volume in the holiday week.
Just for the exercise, today I'll be looking at several technical tools: The Persons proprietary signal (pps), which is my usual tool of choice, but also the price piercing the 20-day moving average (ma20), piercing the 200-day moving average (ma200), 20-day and 200-day moving average crossovers (ma cross), money-flow index (mfi) moves into overbought or oversold territory, the moving average convergence-divergence (macd) and the slow stocastic (sto).
- XLF (financials), macd and ma20, bull
- EWJ (Japan markets), macd confirming sto, bear
- SLV (silver), mfi oversold, bull
- XLU (utilities), macd confirming sto, bear
- USO (oil), macd, bull
- XLE (energy), sto confirming macd, bull
- DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), ma20, bull
The macd is one of the more sensitive indicators -- this is known. The pps is said by its developer to give earlier valid signals than the others. If that's the case, then today's signals must be whipsaws. I'll continue the multi-track for awhile and we shall see.
Nothing here I would want to trade.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
12/16 Watchlist
Today it is 30 days before expiration of the January options, which means we're into prime time for covered calls. I'll be taking at look today and in subsequent Watchlists at high-volume stocks priced below $20 showing signals that might make them good covered call candidates. See the end of this posting.
A covered call stock needs to meet these criteria:
USO is showing a bull signal on a 2.6 percent rise followed by a partial pullback. The trend has been sideways since June. Otherwise, no new indicator signals.
No new signals from the currency pairs or my holdings.
High-volume stocks and etfs priced at 20 or greater:
The bear signals on those two issues are counter-trend, but I shall look hard at them at the next bull signal.
BRCM's with-the-trend bull signal pushes prices to upside resistance, the second test of those levels in the past four days. A possible trade if it breaks above 32.
High-volume shares and etfs below $20 that are possible covered-call candidates:
A covered call stock needs to meet these criteria:
- Slightly bullish to neutral prospects. I.e., I don't want the shares to come crashing down, but I also don't want them to have huge rise.
- Price sufficiently low so that I can afford 100 shares. Calls come in 100-share units, so there's no way to sell a call against fewer than 100 shares.
- Volume sufficient to provide liquidity. Basically, the higher the better, but not below 1 million shares.
USO is showing a bull signal on a 2.6 percent rise followed by a partial pullback. The trend has been sideways since June. Otherwise, no new indicator signals.
No new signals from the currency pairs or my holdings.
High-volume stocks and etfs priced at 20 or greater:
- CVS, bear signal, sideways trend since a huge gap down in November
- KR, bull, sideways since a huge gap down on Dec. 8
- BRCM, bull on a 4% rise, up since November
- EBAY, bull, down since September
- CIT, bear, unknown trend after five trading days since shares resumed trading
- ESRX, bear on a 4.7% fall, up since March; shares are trading where they were on Nov. 30, so it's not as apocalypic as it might sound.
- MHS, bear on 4.6% fall, up since March
- BBD, bear, up since March
- BA, bear, up since March (with some fairly deep pullbacks)
The bear signals on those two issues are counter-trend, but I shall look hard at them at the next bull signal.
BRCM's with-the-trend bull signal pushes prices to upside resistance, the second test of those levels in the past four days. A possible trade if it breaks above 32.
High-volume shares and etfs below $20 that are possible covered-call candidates:
- GE, 15.71, bear mode, sideways since October,
- EWJ, 10.03, bull, sideways since September (with deep pullbacks)
- EWT, 12.40, bear, sideways since August
- LVS, 15.88, bull yesterday, sideways since July
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