2/17 Watchlist

The indicators are doing now pretty much what they were doing at the opening. See today's Morningline.

The euro has almost precisely retraced yesterday's gains. It's though Tuesday didn't exist. So much for the staying power of global joy over prospects for resolving the Greek debt crisis. The EUR/USD pair continues to show a very weak macd bull signal; I have no confidence that it will remain and suspect it will turn out to be a ghost signal.

Gold (GLD has more than retraced yesterday's range, traversing 1% high to low on the third day of a strengthening macd bull signal.

The close-to-expiry drama that is a hallmark of iron condors is showing itself in my CVS February holding. The top of the maximum profit range is $34. The price has moved up to and slightly above that level.

1/21 Watchlist: Don't Panic Yet. It's All Good.

Blue chip stocks tumbled as much as 2.1 percent from today's open to the low (so far), on a bear signal from Person's Proprietary Signal. The so-called fear index (VIX) rose 18.8 percent on a bull signal.
The news coverage no doubt will be apocalypic. But, it is important to note that the S&P500 (represented here by SPY, the exchange-traded fund) remain in a bullish price pattern.

The bull price pattern is a series of high highs and higher lowers. The market never moves in a straight line for long periods of time. As J.P. Morgan said when asked what the market would do: "It will fluctuate." That's no less  true today than in his day.

1/15 Watchlist: The Blue Chip Bears

Blue chip stocks (SPY) are showing a bear signal and have dropped 1.3 percent from the opening price. The price has stalled at very near term resistance. This comes amid falling interest rates on 20- and 30-year Treasury bonds, and falling prices for gold and oil.

In terms of other technical analysis on the blue chips, the stochastic has crossed below the 80-line, a bearish signal. The macd remains in bullish territory. The price was approaching the upper Bollinger band, and the bands were widening, which can be taken as signaling continuation of the upward trend.

The blue chips have been in a strong upward trend since March. This signal is countertrend, and not a trade for me. Especially with so many mixed signals.

Here's what's interesting among high-volume . . .

1/12 Watchlist: SPY, many etfs show bear signals; Fear flies;

Blue chips (SPY) show a pps bear signal on a decline of 1.1% from Monday's close. The mfi and stochastic are falling toward their respective 80-lines. The macd remains in bull territory. The price remains above the 20-day moving average.

The decline is consistent with a minor pullback within an uptrend that began in early March 2008. A decline below the ma20 would suggest a larger decline, such as that seen in June and July last year, as well as in September, October and November.

The blue chips' bear signal coincides with a gap up and sharp rise in volatility (VIX, the fear index). It is trading 9.2% above Monday's close.

Gold (GLD) also shows a bear signal and a 2.2% drop from yesterday's close, with the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average but the price above the 50-day. Oil (USO) shows a similar pattern with a pps bear signal.

Bear signals all over the major exchange-traded funds. See below

Otherwise, the signals on indicators and currencies remain as described in the Morningline.

Here's what's interesting among high-volume . . .

12/22 Watchlist

No new signals on the indicators, currencies or holdings. Every issue's volume is low.

The pre-close scan, through the end of December, will cover only high-volume etfs (5 million shares and higher in volume), excluding those that are contrarian and those that multiply the underlying. The list will be smaller than usual because of lower volume in the holiday week.

Just for the exercise, today I'll be looking at several technical tools: The Persons proprietary signal (pps), which is my usual tool of choice, but also the price piercing the 20-day moving average (ma20), piercing the 200-day moving average (ma200), 20-day and 200-day moving average crossovers (ma cross), money-flow index (mfi) moves into overbought or oversold territory, the moving average convergence-divergence (macd) and the slow stocastic (sto).

• XLF (financials), macd and ma20, bull
• EWJ (Japan markets), macd confirming sto, bear
• SLV (silver), mfi oversold, bull
• XLU (utilities), macd confirming sto, bear
• USO (oil), macd, bull
  
• XLE (energy), sto confirming macd, bull
• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), ma20, bull

So, out of 30 etfs, no pps signals, a couple of 20-day moving average piercings, a sto, an mfi and five macd signals.

The macd is one of the more sensitive indicators -- this is known. The pps is said by its developer to give earlier valid signals than the others. If that's the case, then today's signals must be whipsaws. I'll continue the multi-track for awhile and we shall see.

Nothing here I would want to trade.

12/21 Watchlist

It's Christmas week, and I'll be scanning in holiday mode this week and next: I'll check out the indicators and currencies, and of course watch my holdings like a paranoid hawk.

But, for new entries, I shall be scanning only a few high-volume etfs, and most likely won't be opening any new positions. might be opening positions, if they're really compelling, as SMH seems to be (see below).

A new bear signal on the fear index (VIX), but oddly not on the blue-chips (SPY) whose volatility the VIX measures. The VIX is trading at 20.33, down 5.3% from the open. The signal comes two days after a bull signal amid a downtrend that began in January.

Treasury long bonds (TLT) shows a bear signal, two days after giving a bull signal. TLT is trading at 91.55, down 0.5% from the open.

Otherwise, no new signals on the indicators, the currencies or my holdings.


High-volume etfs (ignoring shorts and multiples):

• QQQQ (the NASDAQ), bull signal in an uptrend that begin in March. The etf has given three signal reversals in six trading days.
• XLF (financials), bull signal, strong uptrend began in March, and a less convincing retracement downward in October.
• UYG (financials), bull signal, uptrend began in March, retracement in October.
• XRT (retail), bull signal in a sideways trend since October, reversing Friday's bull signal.
• SMH (semiconductors), bull signal on a gap up, in an uptrend since March and a sideways trend since the beginning of December.

The SMH signal is the most convincing of the lot.