Shares in large companies (SPY) opened 0.4% above yesterday's high and then rose a couple of cents to $115.97 before dropping backing back, using the $115.60 level as support on the low-level chart. After that, SPY turned jittery.
SPY moved up to $15.70 as support and then moved down toward resistance at $115.14.
Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) opened in the middle of Thursday's range and stayed their, barely changing from today's initial price.
None of my other indicators showed breakouts (or breakdowns) from yesterday's trading ranges, and the technical signals for all indicators, SPY included, remain as they have been.
Showing posts with label EUR/USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EUR/USD. Show all posts
Friday, March 12, 2010
Thursday, March 11, 2010
3/11 Morningline
Blue chip stocks (SPY) and Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) opened in the middle of Wednesday's ranges, as though hung over from that day's excesses.
SPY on Wednesday slightly overshot its high of Jan. 14 but failed to establish that price, $115.14, as a new support level.
Will SPY again attempt to pierce that major resistance and resume the bull market that began in March 2009? Will SPY, despondent, sink back into beardom? Or will it stay put, embracing boredom as the price goes nowhere?
The morning's theme song is from the 1934 Cole Porter: "Anything Goes".
SPY on Wednesday slightly overshot its high of Jan. 14 but failed to establish that price, $115.14, as a new support level.
Will SPY again attempt to pierce that major resistance and resume the bull market that began in March 2009? Will SPY, despondent, sink back into beardom? Or will it stay put, embracing boredom as the price goes nowhere?
The morning's theme song is from the 1934 Cole Porter: "Anything Goes".
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
3/10 Morningline
Blue chip stocks (SPY) continue to tease the high set Jan. 14.
The magic number is $115.14. If SPY moves through that level (and stays above it), then the bull market that began a year ago continues. If the price pulls back and never exceeds that level, then the 72% rise will count as just a bear market correction.
The next significant resistance above $115.14 is around $130, so the easy money in the event of a bull move is 13%.
Treasury long-term bonds are trading at the bottom of yesterday's range with a new psar bear signal. The pps flashed bear on Friday, and the macd on Monday.
The magic number is $115.14. If SPY moves through that level (and stays above it), then the bull market that began a year ago continues. If the price pulls back and never exceeds that level, then the 72% rise will count as just a bear market correction.
Abbreviations:
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
The next significant resistance above $115.14 is around $130, so the easy money in the event of a bull move is 13%.
Treasury long-term bonds are trading at the bottom of yesterday's range with a new psar bear signal. The pps flashed bear on Friday, and the macd on Monday.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
3/9 Morningline
Gold (GLD) is showing a psar bear signal this morning, a day after a pps bear signal. Today's signal came on a gap down that saw GLD open 0.7% below Monday's close.
The macd remains in bull territory although it is in its fourth day of decline toward the zero line. The sto on Monday moved below the overbought line, a bear signal.
Otherwise, my major indicators are opening barely changed and trading in a narrow range: Blue chip stocks(SPY) down, Treasury long-term bonds (TLT), oil (USO) down, everywhere a global yawn except for the dollar-yen (USD/JPY) currency pair, which saw the dollar decline 0.8% against the Japanese currency.
The macd remains in bull territory although it is in its fourth day of decline toward the zero line. The sto on Monday moved below the overbought line, a bear signal.
Abbreviations:
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
Otherwise, my major indicators are opening barely changed and trading in a narrow range: Blue chip stocks(SPY) down, Treasury long-term bonds (TLT), oil (USO) down, everywhere a global yawn except for the dollar-yen (USD/JPY) currency pair, which saw the dollar decline 0.8% against the Japanese currency.
Monday, March 8, 2010
3/8 Morningline
Stocks opened barely changed at the top of Friday's trading range, a day that showed a strong upward push in the blue chips.
SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, has regraced most of the decline that, beginning Jan. 19, brought pricde down from $115.14 to $104.58 on Feb. 5.
Abbreviations: pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
The subsequent rise has brought the price to within less than a $1 of the January peak. If the price pushes past $115.14, then SPY will record and higher high and remain in an uptrend -- of sorts -- in the rise that began at $67.10 in March 2009.
SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, has regraced most of the decline that, beginning Jan. 19, brought pricde down from $115.14 to $104.58 on Feb. 5.
Abbreviations: pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic
The subsequent rise has brought the price to within less than a $1 of the January peak. If the price pushes past $115.14, then SPY will record and higher high and remain in an uptrend -- of sorts -- in the rise that began at $67.10 in March 2009.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
3/4 Morningline
The Victorian novelist Edward Bulwer-Lytton gained undying fame with opening line to his novel Paul Clifford: "It was a dark and stormy night."
Were the 1st baron of Lytton a market writer today, it would surely strain in powers of composition: "It was a gray and insipid morn"? "It was a bland and comatose dawn"?
Once again my main indicators are not on the move this morning, straining even my powers of far-fetched metaphory, of creating golden prose from factual dross.
But challenges must be met . . .
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened the day up near the top of a three-day trading range. The etf is trading at $112.60 or so. A break above $112.88 would move above both the range and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from Jan. 19 to Feb. 5. Support is at $111.58.
Were the 1st baron of Lytton a market writer today, it would surely strain in powers of composition: "It was a gray and insipid morn"? "It was a bland and comatose dawn"?
Once again my main indicators are not on the move this morning, straining even my powers of far-fetched metaphory, of creating golden prose from factual dross.
But challenges must be met . . .
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened the day up near the top of a three-day trading range. The etf is trading at $112.60 or so. A break above $112.88 would move above both the range and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from Jan. 19 to Feb. 5. Support is at $111.58.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
3/3 Watchlist
Every time I look at the blue chips chart today, my brain just swings into a rendition of the itsy bitsy spider song. You know the one, "Itsy bitsy spider, climbed up the water spout".
Today's SPY candlestick looks like an itsy bitsy spider hanging by a silken thread from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line.
Of course, we all remember the next line of the song: "Down came the rain, and washed the spider out," no doubt at least to the 61.8% retracement level.
Who'd'a thought that Fibonacci retracements could be applied to spider analysis.
Today's SPY candlestick looks like an itsy bitsy spider hanging by a silken thread from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line.
Of course, we all remember the next line of the song: "Down came the rain, and washed the spider out," no doubt at least to the 61.8% retracement level.
Who'd'a thought that Fibonacci retracements could be applied to spider analysis.
3/3 Morningline
The market is opening as flat as an old bottle of Coke left open to the sun three days running.
With little effervescence and even less pizazz, blue chip stocks (SPY) were trading near the upper half of yesterday's narrow range. Looking only at opens and closes, however, SPY is continuing to climb the staircase that began on Feb. 25. It's just that the stairs are getting somewhat smaller.
Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) were trading very narrowly in the middle of yesterday's range in a downtrend that began Feb. 26. The pps showed a bear signal this morning, while the psar and macd remained in bull mode. The sto crossed down below the 80-line, considered to be a bear signal.
With little effervescence and even less pizazz, blue chip stocks (SPY) were trading near the upper half of yesterday's narrow range. Looking only at opens and closes, however, SPY is continuing to climb the staircase that began on Feb. 25. It's just that the stairs are getting somewhat smaller.
Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) were trading very narrowly in the middle of yesterday's range in a downtrend that began Feb. 26. The pps showed a bear signal this morning, while the psar and macd remained in bull mode. The sto crossed down below the 80-line, considered to be a bear signal.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
3/2 Morningline
Blue chip stocks (SPY) gapped up 0.4% this morning and then sat at the new level trading very narrowly, within a couple of cents of the opening.
Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) gapped down 0.5%, and sat trading in an equally narrow range.
Media narratives credited Greece for the gaps, as Greece has been credited so many times before during the last few weeks, for up markets, down markets, sideways markets, earthquakes, eclipses and dyspepsia.
Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) gapped down 0.5%, and sat trading in an equally narrow range.
Media narratives credited Greece for the gaps, as Greece has been credited so many times before during the last few weeks, for up markets, down markets, sideways markets, earthquakes, eclipses and dyspepsia.
Monday, March 1, 2010
3/1 Morningline
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) gapped upward this morning, opening 0.4% above Friday's close, and then bumping up a similar percentage, low to high.
The movement put SPY at the very near term high set Feb. 22. A break out above $111.58 would negate the apparent downtrend pattern set with the Feb. 23 decline. "Apparent downtrend pattern" is a technical term among traders that means, "Gee, it looked like a downtrend at the time. I wonder what went wrong?"
It is important for a trader to always get the terminology right.
The movement put SPY at the very near term high set Feb. 22. A break out above $111.58 would negate the apparent downtrend pattern set with the Feb. 23 decline. "Apparent downtrend pattern" is a technical term among traders that means, "Gee, it looked like a downtrend at the time. I wonder what went wrong?"
It is important for a trader to always get the terminology right.
Friday, February 26, 2010
2/26 Morningline
The price of 20- and 30-year bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury (TLT) has gapped up for the second morning in a row.
At the high so far today, TLT is trading 3.5% above the low set Feb. 18, the day before the present rise began.
In six days of trading only once has TLT closed below its opening price.
Higher bond prices mean that traders expect lower interest rates ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee -- that's Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his merry band of bankers -- set short term rates. The longer term bonds tracked by TLT are far more market driven and move in response to a far more complex universe of causality.
At the high so far today, TLT is trading 3.5% above the low set Feb. 18, the day before the present rise began.
In six days of trading only once has TLT closed below its opening price.
Higher bond prices mean that traders expect lower interest rates ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee -- that's Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his merry band of bankers -- set short term rates. The longer term bonds tracked by TLT are far more market driven and move in response to a far more complex universe of causality.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
2/25 Morningline
Blue chip stocks (SPY) broke below their range of the last two days, gapping down 1.4% at the open. The retracement from the Jan. 14 high of $115.14 to the Feb. 4 low of $104.58 was in the neighborhood of a Fibonacci 61.8%.
Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) gapped up half a percent. Higher bond prices mean an expectation of lower interest rates.
The "fear index" on the S&P 500 (VIX) was up sharply, trading 11% above Wednesday's close.
Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) gapped up half a percent. Higher bond prices mean an expectation of lower interest rates.
The "fear index" on the S&P 500 (VIX) was up sharply, trading 11% above Wednesday's close.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
2/24 Morningline
Fed Chair Bernanke, in prepared testimony released a half hour after the markets opened, again delivered the one-two punch that has been his main message of late:
Ka-pow! "The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
Bam! "...the Federal Reserve will at some point need to begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures. Notwithstanding the substantial increase in the size of its balance sheet associated with its purchases of Treasury and agency securities, we are confident that we have the tools we need to firm the stance of monetary policy at the appropriate time."
Ka-pow! "The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
Bam! "...the Federal Reserve will at some point need to begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures. Notwithstanding the substantial increase in the size of its balance sheet associated with its purchases of Treasury and agency securities, we are confident that we have the tools we need to firm the stance of monetary policy at the appropriate time."
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
2/23 Morningline
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) are trading at the lower end of yesterday's range, just one-tenth of a percent below yesterday's close.
The SPY exchange-traded fund, in today's early price action, has pulled away from a very near term high set yesterday. The lower high, if it stands, will mark the end of a rise that carried blue-chips up 6.7% from Feb. 5 to yesterday.
In a broader view, SPY began a downtrend in January after a 71.6% rise that began in March 2009.
The SPY exchange-traded fund, in today's early price action, has pulled away from a very near term high set yesterday. The lower high, if it stands, will mark the end of a rise that carried blue-chips up 6.7% from Feb. 5 to yesterday.
In a broader view, SPY began a downtrend in January after a 71.6% rise that began in March 2009.
Monday, February 22, 2010
2/22 Morningline
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened at Friday's high before dropping down to the level of Friday's close. The exchange-traded fund, which tracks the S&P 500, has been in an uptrend for 10 days, rising 6.1%. Today is the fourth intra-trend retracement.
SPY shows a still-strengthening bull trend on the macd, with the money flow index at 62, well below the overbought line at 80.
Treasury long-bonds (TLT) opened in the middle of Friday's range and barely moved. The price has been rangebound for three days, the macd bear signal is weakening for the second straight trading day, and the money flow index is at 39, well above the oversold line at 20.
Stocks this morning appeared to be waiting for the sound of Big Ben.
SPY shows a still-strengthening bull trend on the macd, with the money flow index at 62, well below the overbought line at 80.
Treasury long-bonds (TLT) opened in the middle of Friday's range and barely moved. The price has been rangebound for three days, the macd bear signal is weakening for the second straight trading day, and the money flow index is at 39, well above the oversold line at 20.
Stocks this morning appeared to be waiting for the sound of Big Ben.
Friday, February 19, 2010
2/19 Morningline
There was a time when the raising and lowering of the Federal Reserve's discount rate was a signal for bulls and bears on the stock market.
Clearly, this isn't that time. Blue chip stocks (SPY) opened narrowly in the upper half of yesterday's trading range. The price so far has traversed half a percent low to high.
The Fed's decision to raise the discount rate from 0.5% to 0.75% was analyzed more as a marker of bank bail-out success than as signalling a shift of policy. And the Consumer Price Index this morning showed little sign of inflation. So perhaps the Fed's motives are exactly as they said.
(Having worked as a journalist in Washington, D.C., I personally never assume anyone's motives are transparent. Plots within plots . . . the Bene Gesserit, the Spacing Guild, the Fremen . . .)
Clearly, this isn't that time. Blue chip stocks (SPY) opened narrowly in the upper half of yesterday's trading range. The price so far has traversed half a percent low to high.
The Fed's decision to raise the discount rate from 0.5% to 0.75% was analyzed more as a marker of bank bail-out success than as signalling a shift of policy. And the Consumer Price Index this morning showed little sign of inflation. So perhaps the Fed's motives are exactly as they said.
(Having worked as a journalist in Washington, D.C., I personally never assume anyone's motives are transparent. Plots within plots . . . the Bene Gesserit, the Spacing Guild, the Fremen . . .)
Thursday, February 18, 2010
2/18 Morningline
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened within yesterday's trading range and then rose, tracing half a percent low to high on a strengthening macd bull signal. The move puts SPY at resistance set in early February, and in an area of congestion dating back to December and November 2009.
The fear index (VIX) declined slightly.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) were a reverse image of stocks, opening within the day-before range. The decline high to low traversed 0.6%, with the macd bear signal strengthening on its sixth day of existence.
Low bond prices illustrate expectations of higher interest rates. Minutes released yesterday showed one member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Mr. Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed, turning a bit soft on ultra-low interest rates.
The fear index (VIX) declined slightly.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) were a reverse image of stocks, opening within the day-before range. The decline high to low traversed 0.6%, with the macd bear signal strengthening on its sixth day of existence.
Low bond prices illustrate expectations of higher interest rates. Minutes released yesterday showed one member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Mr. Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed, turning a bit soft on ultra-low interest rates.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
2/17 Watchlist
The indicators are doing now pretty much what they were doing at the opening. See today's Morningline.
The euro has almost precisely retraced yesterday's gains. It's though Tuesday didn't exist. So much for the staying power of global joy over prospects for resolving the Greek debt crisis. The EUR/USD pair continues to show a very weak macd bull signal; I have no confidence that it will remain and suspect it will turn out to be a ghost signal.
Gold (GLD has more than retraced yesterday's range, traversing 1% high to low on the third day of a strengthening macd bull signal.
The close-to-expiry drama that is a hallmark of iron condors is showing itself in my CVS February holding. The top of the maximum profit range is $34. The price has moved up to and slightly above that level.
The euro has almost precisely retraced yesterday's gains. It's though Tuesday didn't exist. So much for the staying power of global joy over prospects for resolving the Greek debt crisis. The EUR/USD pair continues to show a very weak macd bull signal; I have no confidence that it will remain and suspect it will turn out to be a ghost signal.
Gold (GLD has more than retraced yesterday's range, traversing 1% high to low on the third day of a strengthening macd bull signal.
The close-to-expiry drama that is a hallmark of iron condors is showing itself in my CVS February holding. The top of the maximum profit range is $34. The price has moved up to and slightly above that level.
2/17 Morningline
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) gapped this morning, opening half a percent above yesterday's close, before dropping back a bit and trading in a very narrow range. The move puts SPY right at resistance at $110.50 set Jan. 26 through Feb. 3. If it breaks past that level, then the next resistance is around $115.
The macd is showing a strengthening bull signal that appeared late yesterday. The long-term trend is sideways -- this baby has basically been going nowhere as it trades between $104 and $115. On a Fibonacci retracement trellis based on the rise from $67.10 last March to the $115.14 high set in mid-January, the $103.80 level is the 23.6% retracement level, a significant point in Fibonacci Thought.
The rise since Feb. 5 puts SPY about halfway between the 23.6% retracement and the January top.
In my experience, Fibonacci retracements tend to go deeper . . .
The macd is showing a strengthening bull signal that appeared late yesterday. The long-term trend is sideways -- this baby has basically been going nowhere as it trades between $104 and $115. On a Fibonacci retracement trellis based on the rise from $67.10 last March to the $115.14 high set in mid-January, the $103.80 level is the 23.6% retracement level, a significant point in Fibonacci Thought.
The rise since Feb. 5 puts SPY about halfway between the 23.6% retracement and the January top.
In my experience, Fibonacci retracements tend to go deeper . . .
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
2/16 Morningline
Long-term bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury (TLT) gapped down half a percent below Friday's close, and then moved back up a bit. The 30-year bond sold at auction for the highest interest rates since 2007. Prices move the opposite direction from rates and include traders' expectations for future interest rate changes.
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened higher on the second day of a macd bull signal. Gold (GLD) gapped higher by 2.3%, as did oil (USO), by 2.4% The dollar was stronger against both the euro (EUR/USD) and yen (USD/JPY)
Today opens a busy trading week dictated by the calendar. . .
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened higher on the second day of a macd bull signal. Gold (GLD) gapped higher by 2.3%, as did oil (USO), by 2.4% The dollar was stronger against both the euro (EUR/USD) and yen (USD/JPY)
Today opens a busy trading week dictated by the calendar. . .
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