Friday, March 12, 2010

3/12 Morningline

Shares in large companies (SPY) opened 0.4% above yesterday's high and then rose a couple of cents to $115.97 before dropping backing back, using the $115.60 level as support on the low-level chart. After that, SPY turned jittery.

SPY moved up to $15.70 as support and then moved down toward resistance at $115.14.

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) opened in the middle of Thursday's range and stayed their, barely changing from today's initial price.

None of my other indicators showed breakouts (or breakdowns) from yesterday's trading ranges, and the technical signals for all indicators, SPY included, remain as they have been.


Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse, adx - Average Directional Index, pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic

In my personal holdings, GME opened at the top of Thursday's range and was using $19.50 as a support level. This was gratifying, since I had identified $19.50 as resistance in my analysis Thursday morning, when the stock was trading at $19.17.

My bull call spread (c19/-c20) is a risky play, since I entered it with just a bit more than a week before expiration, breaking my rules in the process.

The transmutation of resistance into support is an indicator that my gamble is paying off (unless, of course, it doesn't -- all is change in these markets we love).

At any rate, a break down below $19.50 near the close of today's trading will prompt me to close the position.

Great section on what to do when good trades go bad.

To the numbers, at about 10 a.m. Eastern . . .


Indicators:
  • Blue chip stocks etf (SPY) is trading at $115.68, in psar bull mode with an adx of 22, entered at close on Feb. 11 (at $108.13)
  • Fear index or volatility (VIX) 18.28, bear/11 (bullish for stocks), Feb. 17 (21.72)
  • Treasury long bonds (TLT) $89.82, bear/11, March 10 ($89.59)
  • Corporate junk bonds (JNK) $39.51, bull/30, Feb. 22 ($38.91) 
  • Emerging markets (EEM) $41.48, bull/20, Feb. 3 ($39.40)
  • Gold (GLD) $108.41, bear/12, March 9 ($109.72)
  • Oil (USO) $40.09, bull/20, Feb. 16, ($37.20)
Forex currency pairs:
  • Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) $1.3727, bull/25, March 3 ($1.3696)
  • Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) ¥90.89, bull/14, March 10 (¥90.51)
Stock option holdings, March expiry:
  • AKS, iron condor (p19/-p20/-c25/c26), $23.74, bull/15, March 3 ($22.81) 
  • GCI, covered call (-c15), $16.10, bull/17, Feb. 16 ($14.80) 
  • GME, bull call spread (c19/-c20), bull/35, March 11 ($19.35)
  • T, bull put spread (p25/-p26), $25.50, bull/22, March 8 ($26.28)
  • WFC, iron condor (p26/-p27/-c29/c30), $29.81, bull/22, Feb. 22 ($28.01)
Zombies:
  • MCO, long shares, $28.59, bull/14, March 5 ($28.11) 
  • PALM, long shares, $5.55, bear/42, Feb. 18 ($9.62)



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Topics: S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, high-yield corporate junk bonds, emerging markets, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, AK Steel Holding, Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend fund, GameStop video games retailer, Gannett newspapers media, Moodys bond rating, Annaly Capital Management real estate REIT mortgage-backed securities, Palm smartphone Pixi PriWells Fargo banking financial.

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