There was a time when the raising and lowering of the Federal Reserve's discount rate was a signal for bulls and bears on the stock market.
Clearly, this isn't that time. Blue chip stocks (SPY) opened narrowly in the upper half of yesterday's trading range. The price so far has traversed half a percent low to high.
The Fed's decision to raise the discount rate from 0.5% to 0.75% was analyzed more as a marker of bank bail-out success than as signalling a shift of policy. And the Consumer Price Index this morning showed little sign of inflation. So perhaps the Fed's motives are exactly as they said.
(Having worked as a journalist in Washington, D.C., I personally never assume anyone's motives are transparent. Plots within plots . . . the Bene Gesserit, the Spacing Guild, the Fremen . . .)
Showing posts with label ERTS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ERTS. Show all posts
Friday, February 19, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
2/19 Almanac
Friday, Feb. 19, is the last trading day before February options expire, 28 the March and 56 the April.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $110.91, up 0.6% from the prior close.
In total, 3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 3.2% from yesterday.
Burning Question: Is it scary that the 8th best-selling book on Amazon.com is called The Coming Insurrection, with The Invisible Committee listed as the author?
On the jump, humor prize, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $110.91, up 0.6% from the prior close.
In total, 3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 3.2% from yesterday.
Burning Question: Is it scary that the 8th best-selling book on Amazon.com is called The Coming Insurrection, with The Invisible Committee listed as the author?
On the jump, humor prize, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...
2/18 Morningline
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened within yesterday's trading range and then rose, tracing half a percent low to high on a strengthening macd bull signal. The move puts SPY at resistance set in early February, and in an area of congestion dating back to December and November 2009.
The fear index (VIX) declined slightly.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) were a reverse image of stocks, opening within the day-before range. The decline high to low traversed 0.6%, with the macd bear signal strengthening on its sixth day of existence.
Low bond prices illustrate expectations of higher interest rates. Minutes released yesterday showed one member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Mr. Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed, turning a bit soft on ultra-low interest rates.
The fear index (VIX) declined slightly.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) were a reverse image of stocks, opening within the day-before range. The decline high to low traversed 0.6%, with the macd bear signal strengthening on its sixth day of existence.
Low bond prices illustrate expectations of higher interest rates. Minutes released yesterday showed one member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Mr. Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed, turning a bit soft on ultra-low interest rates.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
2/18 Almanac
Thursday, Feb. 18, is 1 day before February options expire, 29 the March and 57 the April.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $110.26, up 0.5% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about the same as the prior day.
Mediawatch: Putting away the gyros and baklava, Greece forgotten, reporters returned the narrative to the old meat and potatoes fare, earnings and economic reports, as exemplified by the AP story. Ah, George Papaconstantinou, we hardly knew ye!
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio, tasks ahead and a good book...
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $110.26, up 0.5% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about the same as the prior day.
Mediawatch: Putting away the gyros and baklava, Greece forgotten, reporters returned the narrative to the old meat and potatoes fare, earnings and economic reports, as exemplified by the AP story. Ah, George Papaconstantinou, we hardly knew ye!
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio, tasks ahead and a good book...
2/17 Watchlist
The indicators are doing now pretty much what they were doing at the opening. See today's Morningline.
The euro has almost precisely retraced yesterday's gains. It's though Tuesday didn't exist. So much for the staying power of global joy over prospects for resolving the Greek debt crisis. The EUR/USD pair continues to show a very weak macd bull signal; I have no confidence that it will remain and suspect it will turn out to be a ghost signal.
Gold (GLD has more than retraced yesterday's range, traversing 1% high to low on the third day of a strengthening macd bull signal.
The close-to-expiry drama that is a hallmark of iron condors is showing itself in my CVS February holding. The top of the maximum profit range is $34. The price has moved up to and slightly above that level.
The euro has almost precisely retraced yesterday's gains. It's though Tuesday didn't exist. So much for the staying power of global joy over prospects for resolving the Greek debt crisis. The EUR/USD pair continues to show a very weak macd bull signal; I have no confidence that it will remain and suspect it will turn out to be a ghost signal.
Gold (GLD has more than retraced yesterday's range, traversing 1% high to low on the third day of a strengthening macd bull signal.
The close-to-expiry drama that is a hallmark of iron condors is showing itself in my CVS February holding. The top of the maximum profit range is $34. The price has moved up to and slightly above that level.
2/17 Morningline
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) gapped this morning, opening half a percent above yesterday's close, before dropping back a bit and trading in a very narrow range. The move puts SPY right at resistance at $110.50 set Jan. 26 through Feb. 3. If it breaks past that level, then the next resistance is around $115.
The macd is showing a strengthening bull signal that appeared late yesterday. The long-term trend is sideways -- this baby has basically been going nowhere as it trades between $104 and $115. On a Fibonacci retracement trellis based on the rise from $67.10 last March to the $115.14 high set in mid-January, the $103.80 level is the 23.6% retracement level, a significant point in Fibonacci Thought.
The rise since Feb. 5 puts SPY about halfway between the 23.6% retracement and the January top.
In my experience, Fibonacci retracements tend to go deeper . . .
The macd is showing a strengthening bull signal that appeared late yesterday. The long-term trend is sideways -- this baby has basically been going nowhere as it trades between $104 and $115. On a Fibonacci retracement trellis based on the rise from $67.10 last March to the $115.14 high set in mid-January, the $103.80 level is the 23.6% retracement level, a significant point in Fibonacci Thought.
The rise since Feb. 5 puts SPY about halfway between the 23.6% retracement and the January top.
In my experience, Fibonacci retracements tend to go deeper . . .
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
2/16 Morningline
Long-term bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury (TLT) gapped down half a percent below Friday's close, and then moved back up a bit. The 30-year bond sold at auction for the highest interest rates since 2007. Prices move the opposite direction from rates and include traders' expectations for future interest rate changes.
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened higher on the second day of a macd bull signal. Gold (GLD) gapped higher by 2.3%, as did oil (USO), by 2.4% The dollar was stronger against both the euro (EUR/USD) and yen (USD/JPY)
Today opens a busy trading week dictated by the calendar. . .
Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened higher on the second day of a macd bull signal. Gold (GLD) gapped higher by 2.3%, as did oil (USO), by 2.4% The dollar was stronger against both the euro (EUR/USD) and yen (USD/JPY)
Today opens a busy trading week dictated by the calendar. . .
Friday, February 12, 2010
2/16 Almanac
Monday, Feb. 15, is a markets holiday. Happy President's Day!
Tuesday, Feb. 16, is 3 days before February options expire, 31 the March and 59 the April.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $108.04, down 0.08% from the prior close.
In total, 3.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 9.4% more than the prior day.
Mediawatch: The Greek narrative has been swapped out for a new Chinese narrative. China announced further limits on bank lending, and so stocks fell. (If you can consider 8/100th of one percent to be a fall. I mean, it looks more like a nervous tic.) AP writes it like this.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio, tasks ahead and a good book...
Tuesday, Feb. 16, is 3 days before February options expire, 31 the March and 59 the April.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $108.04, down 0.08% from the prior close.
In total, 3.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 9.4% more than the prior day.
Mediawatch: The Greek narrative has been swapped out for a new Chinese narrative. China announced further limits on bank lending, and so stocks fell. (If you can consider 8/100th of one percent to be a fall. I mean, it looks more like a nervous tic.) AP writes it like this.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio, tasks ahead and a good book...
2/12 Morningline
Currencies are on the move this morning. The dollar opened the U.S. trading day with a 1.2% rise against the euro (EUR/USD) and a 0.9% increase against the yen (USD/JPY).
In each of the currency pairs, the price then pulled back to within yesterday's trading range.
Which illustrates the general conservatism of the morning.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) opened 1% below yesterday's close, but didn't follow through. Treasury long bonds (TLT) opened half a percent above yesterday's close, and then sat spinning like a top -- lots of motion but little progress.
The fear index (VIX) mirrored yesterday's range. Where on Thursday fear dropped like the madly laughing operator of a runaway elevator, today it shot up like a paranoid fireworks display opening an Olympics.
In each of the currency pairs, the price then pulled back to within yesterday's trading range.
Which illustrates the general conservatism of the morning.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) opened 1% below yesterday's close, but didn't follow through. Treasury long bonds (TLT) opened half a percent above yesterday's close, and then sat spinning like a top -- lots of motion but little progress.
The fear index (VIX) mirrored yesterday's range. Where on Thursday fear dropped like the madly laughing operator of a runaway elevator, today it shot up like a paranoid fireworks display opening an Olympics.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
2/11 Watchlist
Blue chip stocks (SPY) moved up sharply today, traversing 1.4% low to high. Shares hit $108.25, topping the $108.15 high set two days ago, and then pulled back slightly.
Treasury long bond (TLT) prices pulled back from their low but remained below yesterday's open. High-yield corporate bonds (JNK) rose to the mid-range of yesterday's decline.
The move in stocks positioned SPY near a short-sell point for swing traders looking to profit from the 3- or 4-day trend reversals. The move comes on the fourth day since the cycle low, $104.58, on Feb. 5, a point that also serve as support for the shares.
A significant pullback before the close today, as I see it, would indicate a bear entry point, either by selling shares short or buying puts. (Traders who hedge could sell a bear call vertical spread.)
Lacking a pullback, I would expect the uptrend to continue in early trading on Friday.
Treasury long bond (TLT) prices pulled back from their low but remained below yesterday's open. High-yield corporate bonds (JNK) rose to the mid-range of yesterday's decline.
The move in stocks positioned SPY near a short-sell point for swing traders looking to profit from the 3- or 4-day trend reversals. The move comes on the fourth day since the cycle low, $104.58, on Feb. 5, a point that also serve as support for the shares.
A significant pullback before the close today, as I see it, would indicate a bear entry point, either by selling shares short or buying puts. (Traders who hedge could sell a bear call vertical spread.)
Lacking a pullback, I would expect the uptrend to continue in early trading on Friday.
2/11 Morningline
Bonds are opening the day in an unhappy mood. Long-term bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury (TLT) have opened slightly below yesterday's closing price. It's the third lower open in a row, and each has had a lower high, lower low and lower close.
High-yield bonds issued by corporations (JNK) showed a similar pattern, opening lower for the third day in a row.
From a broader perspective, TLT began a major decline in December 2008. A low of $87.69 was set in June, and another of $88.67 in January. Those form an important support level. TLT is presently trading at $90.14.
JNK began falling five years ago, hit a low in March 2009, and then began a steady uptrend. The decline that began in mid-January interrupted that trend. JNK is trading at $37.12, a support level, and has further support at $35.75 and $34 all the way down to the low of $25.55.
High-yield bonds issued by corporations (JNK) showed a similar pattern, opening lower for the third day in a row.
From a broader perspective, TLT began a major decline in December 2008. A low of $87.69 was set in June, and another of $88.67 in January. Those form an important support level. TLT is presently trading at $90.14.
JNK began falling five years ago, hit a low in March 2009, and then began a steady uptrend. The decline that began in mid-January interrupted that trend. JNK is trading at $37.12, a support level, and has further support at $35.75 and $34 all the way down to the low of $25.55.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
2/10 Morningline
Markets are marking time this morning waiting for . . . Who knows?
Given the back-to-back blizzards in the Midewest and East, it's no surprise that this snow day is a slow day.
Blue chip stocks, Treasury long bonds, gold, oil, emerging markets -- waiting.
The greatest excitement among the indicators was a two-thirds of a percent decline in emerging markets that left the price within the range set the past three days.
Given the back-to-back blizzards in the Midewest and East, it's no surprise that this snow day is a slow day.
Blue chip stocks, Treasury long bonds, gold, oil, emerging markets -- waiting.
The greatest excitement among the indicators was a two-thirds of a percent decline in emerging markets that left the price within the range set the past three days.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
2/10 Almanac
Wednesday, Feb. 10, is 9 days before February options expire, 37 the March and 65 the April.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $107.22, up 1.3% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 29 percent less than on Friday.
Mediawatch: AP credits Tuesday's rise to the European debt crisis, just as it credited Monday's fall to the European debt crisis. So, a 1.3% rise vs a 0.7% decline means that we are now 0.6% net optimistic about whether the EU will help Greece solve its problems. Question: Did anyone really thing the EU wouldn't help Greece solve its problems? Just asking.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book . . .
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $107.22, up 1.3% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 29 percent less than on Friday.
Mediawatch: AP credits Tuesday's rise to the European debt crisis, just as it credited Monday's fall to the European debt crisis. So, a 1.3% rise vs a 0.7% decline means that we are now 0.6% net optimistic about whether the EU will help Greece solve its problems. Question: Did anyone really thing the EU wouldn't help Greece solve its problems? Just asking.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book . . .
2/9 Morningline
The action this morning is in stocks.
Bear signals flashed Jan. 21 on the macd continued as blue chip stocks (SPY) moved to the top of yesterday's trading range. The 20-day moving average moved deeper below the 50-day, an inverse pattern shouting "Bear!" to knowledgeable traders. The money flow index stayed in oversold territory, below the 20-line.
However, the VIX declined 4.8% open to current, an indicator of increasing confidence among traders. The "fear index" remains in a range where it has traded often since Jan. 22, so there isn't any decisive break to the downside.
Bear signals flashed Jan. 21 on the macd continued as blue chip stocks (SPY) moved to the top of yesterday's trading range. The 20-day moving average moved deeper below the 50-day, an inverse pattern shouting "Bear!" to knowledgeable traders. The money flow index stayed in oversold territory, below the 20-line.
However, the VIX declined 4.8% open to current, an indicator of increasing confidence among traders. The "fear index" remains in a range where it has traded often since Jan. 22, so there isn't any decisive break to the downside.
Monday, February 8, 2010
2/9 Almanac
Tuesday, Feb. 9, is 10 days before February options expire, 38 the March and 66 the April.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $105.89, down 0.7% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 29 percent less than on Friday.
Mediawatch: AP alludes darkly to worried about the European debt crisis but leads with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing below 10,000, which became a habit beginning Oct. 10, 2008, amid the collapse of capitalist finance. The habit persisted until Nov. 2, the last close before that level. Meaningless, actually.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book . . .
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $105.89, down 0.7% from the prior close.
In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 29 percent less than on Friday.
Mediawatch: AP alludes darkly to worried about the European debt crisis but leads with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing below 10,000, which became a habit beginning Oct. 10, 2008, amid the collapse of capitalist finance. The habit persisted until Nov. 2, the last close before that level. Meaningless, actually.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book . . .
2/8 Morningline
Street Authority and others are blaming lingering worries over the euro for today's slightly lower opening on blue chip stocks (SPY). Personally, I blame the downward move on the distraught Colts fans, who are cashing in shares to pay off the bets they made on an Indiana victory in yesterday's Superbowl XLIV. Also, buying lots of Jack Daniels to drown their sorrow. Sorry, Colts. Great second half, Saints.
Personally, I'm positioning for the big 10.3% post-Superbowl gain in the markets. (Well, not.)
SPY is trading within the range set Friday, as are Treasury long bonds (TLT), gold (GLD), oil (USO), corporate high-yield bonds (JNK), emerging markets (EEM), the euro (EUR/USD) and the yen.
Monday mornings are a bear, you know? (Or maybe a bunch of bull.) It's hard to get moving. Even the sprightly VIX -- the so-called "fear index" was within Friday's range, albeit up a bit.
Personally, I'm positioning for the big 10.3% post-Superbowl gain in the markets. (Well, not.)
SPY is trading within the range set Friday, as are Treasury long bonds (TLT), gold (GLD), oil (USO), corporate high-yield bonds (JNK), emerging markets (EEM), the euro (EUR/USD) and the yen.
Monday mornings are a bear, you know? (Or maybe a bunch of bull.) It's hard to get moving. Even the sprightly VIX -- the so-called "fear index" was within Friday's range, albeit up a bit.
Friday, February 5, 2010
2/8 Almanac
Monday, Feb. 8, is 11 days before the February options expire, 39 days the March and 67 days the April.
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $106.66, up 0.2% from the prior close.
In total, 4.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 2 percent more than the day before.
Mediawatch: News reports says the European debt crisis and the government's U.S. employment report caused shares to decline. Repeat after me: The debt crisis is not new. Employment is a lagging indicator. Not new. Lagging indicator. All priced into the market before, unless traders are terribly, terribly stupid.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book . . .
Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $106.66, up 0.2% from the prior close.
In total, 4.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges. That's about 2 percent more than the day before.
Mediawatch: News reports says the European debt crisis and the government's U.S. employment report caused shares to decline. Repeat after me: The debt crisis is not new. Employment is a lagging indicator. Not new. Lagging indicator. All priced into the market before, unless traders are terribly, terribly stupid.
On the jump, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book . . .
2/5 Morningline
Blue chip stocks (SPY) declined further the first half hour of trading after opening at the lower end of yesterday's sharp decline, approaching a key level in the retracement of the rise from last March.
Otherwise, among the financials, think steady.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) held steady at the midpoint of yesterday's range, and corporate junk bonds (JNK) were also steady, at the low end. The VIX, also steady, near the top of yesterday's rise (a rising VIX is bearish for stocks).
Otherwise, among the financials, think steady.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) held steady at the midpoint of yesterday's range, and corporate junk bonds (JNK) were also steady, at the low end. The VIX, also steady, near the top of yesterday's rise (a rising VIX is bearish for stocks).
Thursday, February 4, 2010
2/5 Almanac
Friday, Feb. 5, is 14 days before the February options expire, 42 days the March and 70 days the April.
Historically, it tends to be an up day of the week on an up date of the month in an up month of the year.Actually, Friday's tend to be the risingest days of the week.
Historically, it tends to be an up day of the week on an up date of the month in an up month of the year.Actually, Friday's tend to be the risingest days of the week.
2/4 Morningline
SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the blue-chip stocks, ended its two-day head-fake with a gap down from yesterday's trading range, and then a decline into the trading day.
The trading pattern for nine days has basically been a sideways track contained by the 61.8% and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) are on the rise, meaning interest rates are on the decline. TLT is in the second day in macd bear territory. High-interest corporate bonds (JNK) are trading down at levels not seen since December, suggesting traders see an increased risk of corporate defaults.
Gold (GLD) glistens not. It gapped down by 1.8% with a bearish macd. Oil (USO) also gapped down with the macd showing bull signals.
Down the emerging markets. Down U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY). Up the dollar against the euro (EUR/USD).
The end of the world as we know it?
The trading pattern for nine days has basically been a sideways track contained by the 61.8% and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Treasury long bonds (TLT) are on the rise, meaning interest rates are on the decline. TLT is in the second day in macd bear territory. High-interest corporate bonds (JNK) are trading down at levels not seen since December, suggesting traders see an increased risk of corporate defaults.
Gold (GLD) glistens not. It gapped down by 1.8% with a bearish macd. Oil (USO) also gapped down with the macd showing bull signals.
Down the emerging markets. Down U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY). Up the dollar against the euro (EUR/USD).
The end of the world as we know it?
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