2/16 Swing Map

Here's the status of exchange-traded funds I'm following for short-term positions using the Taylor Trading Technique.

Key: Symbol (implied volume) ->[swing] high | low $objective ~estimated_date (current_price); where -> means "looking for", [] means optional, | means "or",  and ~ means "approximately".

• EEM (38) ->low $37.51 ~2/16 ($38.44)
• FXI (37) ->low $38.16 ~2/17 ($38.91)
• OIH (37) ->low $115.61 ~2/16 ($119.23)
• SLV (36) ->low $14.80 ~2/16 ($15.24)
• SPY (24) ->low $106.11 ~2/16 ($108.04
• XHB (34) ->high $15.58 ~2/12 ($15.88): Overdue by a day.

The way to translate this into words is as follows, using EEM  for the example:

"I'm looking for a swing low in EEM, which has a volatility of 0.38. The objective (or target) is $37.51 and I expect it to be attained approximately on Feb. 16. The shares last traded at $38.44."

Swing holdings: None.

See my essay "Swing Trading" for trading rules and a reading list.

I expect to post a note like this daily after the close.

Swing Spreadsheet

Here's a spreadsheet of the potential swing trades I'm tracking (see my earlier post today).

XHB is the active issue. I'm looking for a new swing high so I can enter short.

The last two lines in the sheet show how far the objective is from the swing high or low.

2/11 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) moved up sharply today, traversing 1.4% low to high. Shares hit $108.25, topping the $108.15 high set two days ago, and then pulled back slightly.

Treasury long bond (TLT) prices pulled back from their low but remained below yesterday's open. High-yield corporate bonds (JNK) rose to the mid-range of yesterday's decline.

The move in stocks positioned SPY near a short-sell point for swing traders looking to profit from the 3- or 4-day trend reversals. The move comes on the fourth day since the cycle low, $104.58, on Feb. 5, a point that also serve as support for the shares.

A significant pullback before the close today, as I see it, would indicate a bear entry point, either by selling shares short or buying puts. (Traders who hedge could sell a bear call vertical spread.)

Lacking a pullback, I would expect the uptrend to continue in early trading on Friday.

1/5 Watchlist

The Treasury long bonds (TLT) continue to show a potential pps bull signal on a rise from the open today of half a percent. Rising bond prices means falling interest rates (an amazing idea, given how low rates are already). I need to note that this etf fails the trend test. It has been trending mainly downward for a year. On the other hand, the macd and stochastic indicators are pointing in a bull direction.

The yen per dollar currency pair (USD/JPY) continues to show a bear flag, meaning stronger yen/weaker dollar, on a decline from the open of 0.9%.

Other movers today among my indicators and holdings:

• Corporate junk bonds (JNK), up 1.2% (meaning falling rates)
• LVS, a holding of mine in the form of a January covered call (-c16) is up 6.5% from the open after an overnight gap, a rise of similar magnitude, and another gap over the New Year's holiday. New reports are crediting gambling revenues in Macau, where Las Vegas Sands also operates. (What happens in Macau stays in Macau -- you betcha). I'll profit, but I would have profited more with a straight bull position without the covered call.
  
• KO has fallen 2.4% the last three trading days and sits nicely in profitable territory on my iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60)
• SBUX, a bull holding,  jumped 4.5% from the open, although it has pulled back a bit. This is on the third day since a pps bear signal, with no new bull sig. Earnings is Jan. 20.
• SMH, a bull holding, is down a percent from the open.

Here's what else is interesting among high-volume . . .

. . . exchange-traded funds (etf):

• XLE, the energy etf, is up 2.2% in two days, with the pps, macd and stochastic all in bull mode. The 20-day moving average is slightly below the ma50, and poised for a crossover, restoring the standard 20-50-200 bullish order.
• FXI, the etf that tracks London's FTSE index, gapped up this morning and is trading 2.6% above yesterday's open. The issue fails the trend test -- it is a sideways meanderer -- but the macd and stochastic are in bull mode. The ma20, however, is trading below the ma50 and is trending downward, giving a bearish cast to the chart.
• KBE, which tracks a banking index, is up 2.7% from yesterday's open, the day after a pps bull signal. The trend is sideways, but the macd and stochastic are in bull mode.
• EWM, the Malaysian market etf, showing rise-gap-rise-gap-rise (the infamous rgrgr -- or roger-roger -- pattern, known as the inverse Asian Tiger roar). The trend is rangebound between about 10.40 and 11.20; pps, macd and stochastic all in bull mode.
  

. . . corporate stocks:

• JPM continues its rise after yesterday's pps bull signal
  
• KFT gaps up, and signals, on news.
• T drops below the point where it gave a pps bull signal yesterday. The chart shows a nice uptrend, though.
• CHK breaks past previous upside resistance with bull signals all around (but a sideways trend).
• QCOM gaps up with good trend, macd and stochastic in what appears to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is bullish. Nice uptrend since mid-December and the all indicators are in bull mode. My problem is, when everyone sees the pattern, it kills the uncertainty and therefore the potential for profit.
• DOW with a nice rise through resistance after a pps bull flag yesterday, preceded by macd and stochastic bull signals
• CAL, large rise and a new pps bull flag, confirmed with the macd and stochastic, on a move through resistance and rising trend, and on news about revenue data. So the good news for the bottom line is no doubt already in the price.
• WMT, with a sideways trend, is showing the famous double whiplash pps signal, a bear, a bull and a bear within three days. The macd is heading toward bull territory, and the stochastic toward bear. Confused puppy mode, for sure.
• No new signals on MRVL, but it has a picture-perfect upward trend since late November and is blue sky (no resistance).

Topics:

Treasury bonds, Coca-Cola, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, semiconductors, dollar yen forex, petroleum oil energy crude, London United Kingdom U.K., banks financial KBW banking index, Malaysia, J.P. Morgan, AT&T telecommunications, Chesapeake Energy, Qualcom, Dow Chemical, Continental Airlines, Wal-Mart retail, Marvell Technology semiconductors.

12/7 Watchlist

Here is how my holdings stand:

HIG is showing a pps bear indicator, and I shall close the bullish position if the indicator persists into the last half hour.

KO, in bull mode, stands just above the max profitability point of my iron condor. No action.

UNG, showing a pps bull indicator, hit near-term upside resistance and pulled back a bit. No action.

Among the high-volume stocks:

• HPQ shows a pps bull signal in a retracement during an up trend.
  
• X shows a pps bear signal at the top of an upward retracement in a larger down trend. 

Both are possible trades.


Among the high volume ETFs, no joy:

• FXI (tracking the FTSE index) is showing a new pps bear signal in a sideways trend. The mfi is wishy-washy, so no trade.
• DIA (tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average) also shows a new pps bear signal in a sideways trend, with the mfi pointing downward. I would feel happier about this one than FXI, but this is the fifth pps signal since Nov. 20 with no price change to speak of, so no trade. 

Looking at another possibility:

GLD, having opened at 111.51 this morning following Friday's fall from 117.15, has retraced up to 114.22 and then pulled back again. Despite Friday's pps bull signal, this is not a bear trade I would take, despite the retracement. The 20-day and 200-day moving averages remain up, and the form of the price action is that of a retracement in an upward trend. If the price were to pierce 104 downward, retrace above that and then continue downward to a new low since Dec. 3, then I would consider the likelihood of a new trend being in place. Otherwise, I'll play the upside.