2/16 Swing Map

Here's the status of exchange-traded funds I'm following for short-term positions using the Taylor Trading Technique.

Key: Symbol (implied volume) ->[swing] high | low $objective ~estimated_date (current_price); where -> means "looking for", [] means optional, | means "or",  and ~ means "approximately".

• EEM (38) ->low $37.51 ~2/16 ($38.44)
• FXI (37) ->low $38.16 ~2/17 ($38.91)
• OIH (37) ->low $115.61 ~2/16 ($119.23)
• SLV (36) ->low $14.80 ~2/16 ($15.24)
• SPY (24) ->low $106.11 ~2/16 ($108.04
• XHB (34) ->high $15.58 ~2/12 ($15.88): Overdue by a day.

The way to translate this into words is as follows, using EEM  for the example:

"I'm looking for a swing low in EEM, which has a volatility of 0.38. The objective (or target) is $37.51 and I expect it to be attained approximately on Feb. 16. The shares last traded at $38.44."

Swing holdings: None.

See my essay "Swing Trading" for trading rules and a reading list.

I expect to post a note like this daily after the close.

Swing Spreadsheet

Here's a spreadsheet of the potential swing trades I'm tracking (see my earlier post today).

XHB is the active issue. I'm looking for a new swing high so I can enter short.

The last two lines in the sheet show how far the objective is from the swing high or low.

2/10 Watchlist

The price of Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) is down 1.2%, high to now, and has reached a near-term support level ranging from $90.50 to about $89. The macd is giving a bear signal, as is Person's Proprietary Signal. Falling bond prices means traders expect higher interest rates ahead, and the Federal Reserve has been looking at how to exit from the current very low interest environment.

Corporate high-yield debt (JNK) is also down considerably. It is in part influenced by the federal interest rates, but also by expectations of corporate default. Traders may well judge that higher rates would stop the present recovery in its tracks, so JNK would suffer on two counts.

The other indicators I watch are trading in the ranges set yesterday.

To the scans! Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .

2/9 Watchlist

SPY (blue chip stocks) whipsawed higher and lower before retreating to the upper end of yesterday's trading range. Altogether, the exchange-traded fund plowed through three-quarters of a percent, low to high.

Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) are down, indicating an expectation of higher interest rates ahead.

Crude oil (USO) has gapped up and is trading 3% above yesterday's close. Gold (GLD) is also on the rise, as are emerging markets.

The dollar is up smartly above the euro (EUR/USD), but against the yen is holding close to yesterday's trading range.

To the scans. Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .

1/11 Watchlist: SBUX losing it's bite

• EUR/USD keeps its bull signal
• Indicators little changed from the Morningline
• January holdings, possible closes:
  
• KO jumps up toward top of profit range
• SBUX falls toward no-caf, no profit
  

 All holdings that expire in January must be sold, except for those that I intend to allow to expire worthless or whose exercise would be profitable. My LVS covered call (-c16), for example, will be exercised, so no action is needed.

The KO jump  brings it up to 56.13. The iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) has max profit up to 57.5.

SBUX is trading at 23.02, about 2% below the profit point. It's a tough decision. There is no pps bear signal, although the macd is in bear territory and the stochastic is moving that way. But, the price bounced a bit off of resistance at 22.87, so maybe there's hope.

Here's what's interesting among the high-volume . . .