2/10 Watchlist

The price of Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) is down 1.2%, high to now, and has reached a near-term support level ranging from $90.50 to about $89. The macd is giving a bear signal, as is Person's Proprietary Signal. Falling bond prices means traders expect higher interest rates ahead, and the Federal Reserve has been looking at how to exit from the current very low interest environment.

Corporate high-yield debt (JNK) is also down considerably. It is in part influenced by the federal interest rates, but also by expectations of corporate default. Traders may well judge that higher rates would stop the present recovery in its tracks, so JNK would suffer on two counts.

The other indicators I watch are trading in the ranges set yesterday.

To the scans! Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .

. . . exchange traded funds: GDX, which tracks gold-mining shares, is showing a weak bull signal on the macd. Now trading at $42.23, if they break through $43, they'll have clear sailing up to around $49. However, this would be a counter-trend play. The most recent low was a lower low, so the etf has been in a downtrend since early December. USO and OIH, noted in yesterday's Watchlist as potential bull plays in the making, marked time today. . . . corporate shares: AIG is showing a macd bull signal on a 19.7% rise low to high. The price is now bumping against resistance set in December during the bailed out insurance giant's slow slide following the collapse of capitalist finance in 2008. Counter-trend bull play that I wouldn't take. It's too much a story stock, and so very news and policy dependent. The price increase has no doubt accomadated any good news. And I don't like to trade against a trend.

Trading Educator Robert Milner shows how to recognize high-probability trading opportunities, pinpoint exact entry and stop prices, and manage a trade until it's completely closed out.

• DIS, macd bull signal after earnings released. Now at $29.75, it needs to break throught resistance at $31 or $32 before I can label it a trend trade (rather than counter-trend).
• KFT, bull signal, Earnings are less than a week away, and this signal comes after a rise since late January of 6.6%. Also, the stock has been in a sideways trend since August. For those reasons, not a trade for me.
• GS, bull signal. The price is in an area of congestion running from late January. It needs a breakout above $160 to persuade me that's serious. Resistance at $170 and $176 limit the upside potential. Also, counter-trend.
• ABX, bull signal, counter-trend. Also, earnings are eight days away. No trade.
• GG, bull signal, counter-trend, earnings 11 days away. (With this much practice, I'll soon be able to express the sentiment in a single word: bull-counter-earns-nope!)

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Topics:
Treasury bonds, high-yield corporate junk bonds, gold miner, oil, petroleum, oil field services petroleum energy, American International Group insurance, Disney film Hollywood entertainment, Kraft Foods, Goldman Sachs Group banking, Barrick Gold mining, Goldcorp gold mining.