2/4 Watchlist

Conditions noted in the Morningline remain as I described them, except more so. The stunning movement comes with the U.S. dollar declining by 2.8% against the Japanese yen (calculated high to low), and rising 1.3% against the euro.

Reuters says it's because recent news has increased an aversion to risk. But I ask, in today's markets, how is it less risky to vote for the yen and for the dollar in trading on the same day? Either side of these trades, there's risk galore. As for the VIX . . .

The VIX -- the so-called fear index -- rose 13.3% (low to high). Which sounds impressive, but only puts it back where it stood on Jan. 26. Near-term resistance is at 28.01, and if I were trading the VIX I would calculate potential profit as about 10% (28.01 less the cureent level of 25.37). Problem child CVS has traded as low as $31.51, but then pulled back from support to $31.66 (as of 2:34 p.m. Eastern). I posted a detailed discussion earlier today of my position in this equity. That said, let's see what's interesting among the high-volume . . .

. . . exchange-traded funds:

•  UNG, which tracks natural gas, is showing a macd bull signal. Prices have not yet made a move. This is a down-trending stock and I wouldn't want to take the counter-trend position. At 9.86, resistance around 10.05, support around 9.22. Not much room for profit there. 
• USO, which tracks crude oil, is showing a whipsaw. Fifteen days in bear territory, a weak bull signal yesterday, and a bear signal today. Sideways trending, it is now at $35.80, very near downside resistance in an area of congestion set August into October last year. I see little potential.
• XRT, the retail etf, also a macd whipsaw. A sideways trend near downside resistance in a large area of congestion. I might take it as a direction-agnostic trade -- an iron condor, perhaps, or a calendar. Or not at all.
• XLP, consumer staples, macd whipsaw, near downside resistance in an area of congestion that has lasted since October.

. . . corporate shares:

• WFC shows a macd bear signal after three days in bull territory. The stock has been trading sideways within spitting distance of the current level since May of last year, so I'm not interested in the trade.
• V, a weak macd bull signal on a declining day (open to now). It's trading at $83.62, upside resistance is an area of congrestion running from about $86 to $88. So split the difference and call it 4% potential. It's a pretty weak signal, though, so I would want to see a price rise before jumping in on the bull side.
• A test: When you see V, do you think credits cards or a giant spaceship with really good-looking secret reptile aliens on board?  (Or maybe a really cool graphic novel??)
• VOD, macd bull signal on a gap up. The price has already touched upside resistance, at the bottom of a long-running congestion area. I see no joy in VOD.
• Might-have-beens: TGT showed a macd bear signal yesterday, gapped down sharply this morning and  traded as low as 4.6% below yesterday's close. So if you had listed to the macd . . . (I know. I didn't, either.) (The pps gave a bear signal two days before the macd did.)
• New macd bear signals also on ARO, AVP (whipsaw), BA, DD (whipsaw), KR, YUM.
• New macd bull signals on EQR, TEVA.

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Topics:
CVS, pharmacies, drugs, natural gas, oil crude petroleum, retail, consumer staples, Wells Fargo bank financial, Visa credit card, Vodafone, Target big box store, Kroger groceries, Yum! Brands fast food restaurant KFC Pizza Hut Taco Bell LJS A&W, Aeropostale casual apparel clothing, Avon Products cosmetics, Boeing aviation aerospace, E.I. du Pont de Nemours, Equity Residential real estate investment trust REIT, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries drugs medicine health.