Friday, February 26, 2010

XRT mfi overbought

The retail exchange-trade fund, XRT, saw its money flow index move into overbought territory, a bear signal.

The price has risen 9.7% since Feb. 5, with a couple of small pullbacks along the way.

The macd has been in bull territory since Feb. 11 and continues a full 0.2 above the zero line.

Today's upward push slightly overshot the previous high set in early October 2009 and puts the price at a resistance level set in August 2007.

Support runs from $36 to $36.20, backed by further support at $35.50, the top of a congestion zone reaching down below $34.50.

So I see maybe 3.8% easy potential on the downside, maybe 6% total if the initial support level is broken.

However, this is a stock that has been trending sideways for four months, and I wouldn't touch it myself for a directional play.


It could go nicely as a March iron condor, selling the $35 put and $37 call, and hedging that by buying the $34 put and $38 call. The premium is 57 cents at this points, which is none too shabby for 20 days work.

By my trading rules this is the last day for buying March iron condors (unless I find something with crackjack premium).



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Topics: retail.

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