2/9 Watchlist

SPY (blue chip stocks) whipsawed higher and lower before retreating to the upper end of yesterday's trading range. Altogether, the exchange-traded fund plowed through three-quarters of a percent, low to high.

Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) are down, indicating an expectation of higher interest rates ahead.

Crude oil (USO) has gapped up and is trading 3% above yesterday's close. Gold (GLD) is also on the rise, as are emerging markets.

The dollar is up smartly above the euro (EUR/USD), but against the yen is holding close to yesterday's trading range.

To the scans. Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .

. . . exchange-traded funds: USO, tracking crude oil, has gapped up on a strong rise to 3% above yesterday's close, as noted in the indicator section above. However, it is not a trade I would take at this point. It's counter-trend. USO entered a downtrend from it's lower high in mid-January and lower low two trading days ago. The macd remains in bear territory, although it is trending up toward the zero line. Trading at $36.18, however, it does, however, have some room for profit. Very near term resistance to the upside is around $38, about 5% above current levels. Downside support is very close, around $35. If it moves past $38, then it's clear sailing all the way up to $41, in terms of resistance levels. It's not a trade I would take now. It is a position I would watch closely for a break above $38 or a macd bull signal.

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• OIH, tracking the oil service industry, can be analyzed as an uptrend, so it meets my trending rules for a position. The rest of the pattern is similar to that for USO. Not a trade for me unless it bumps past $124 with a macd bull signal.
• GLD has been gappoing so wildly, eight so far this year, both up and down that I would not touch this baby. I can't read the trend well enough to do a decent analysis. So I'm waiting for some sort of trend to establish itself. By the book, it's a downtrend from the high of $119.54 set Dec. 3. The gappiness worries me.

Note that I don't follow etfs that provide extra leverage (ultra etfs) or that are designed to move opposite the underlying (short etfs).

. . . corporate shares:

• T, macd bull signal, but it's weak and  countertrend in a month-long area of congestion. I'm disinterested unless I see a break above $26.
• VZ showing a strong rise today and is very close to a macd bull signal. The increased puts the price equal to a top last summer, and there is congestion from January all the way up to the top of $30.10 set Jan. 13. If VZ can break above $30.10, then I'm interested.
• AAPL, having set a higher low in its long-running uptrend, is now, haltingly, on the rise. No new signal. Not a trade, but worth watching.
• AMGN, new macd bear signal amid a weak uptrend. It's trading at strong downside support already. I don't se much potential.
• TXN showing a new macd bull signal. Having set a higher low (maybe; there are ambiguities), it has moved up to $23.43 and has little resistance up to $26.50. A decent directional trade. Although the rise is coming on lower volume, so I'd want to see what happens tomorrow.
• CAT gapped up today to a near-term support level, around $53.70, an dif it breaks through it has clear sailing up to $64.42. A good directional trade when the signal kicks in. Also, it's fairly close to support, $50.50. The trend can be interpreted as rising, with the stock kicking off from a higher low.
• BRCM is trading out a steady rise with a three-day-old macd bull signal showing. It's trading at $29.67, has some resistance at $31 and a major top at $32.49. Some potential. The broad trend is up.

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Topics:
S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, oil field services, , , , , , , .