2/8 Morningline

Street Authority and others are blaming lingering worries over the euro for today's slightly lower opening on blue chip stocks (SPY). Personally, I blame the downward move on the distraught Colts fans, who are cashing in shares to pay off the bets they made on an Indiana victory in yesterday's Superbowl XLIV. Also, buying lots of Jack Daniels to drown their sorrow. Sorry, Colts. Great second half, Saints.

Personally, I'm positioning for the big 10.3% post-Superbowl gain in the markets. (Well, not.)

SPY is trading within the range set Friday, as are Treasury long bonds (TLT), gold (GLD), oil (USO), corporate high-yield bonds (JNK), emerging markets (EEM), the euro (EUR/USD) and the yen.

Monday mornings are a bear, you know? (Or maybe a bunch of bull.) It's hard to get moving. Even the sprightly VIX -- the so-called "fear index" was within Friday's range, albeit up a bit.

My February iron condor on CVS, which I discussed a few days back, has scored a come-from-behind second half victory. The range of maximum profit when the options expire is $31 to $34. The price of the underlying stock was heading south quickly to below the lower maxprofit boundary, and earnings were scheduled for release before the market open today. What to do? Close the iron condor on Friday, or take a chance on earnings, which could triple earnings on the position if the stock didn't gap down. I chose to wait on earnings, and it they were good. Shares opened at about $34 this morning, and have since dropped to about $32.50, near the middle of the maxprofit range.

Other holdings are also trading within Friday's range.

Let's run the numbers:

Indicators, at about 10:00 a.m. Eastern:

• Blue chip stocks etf (SPY) is trading at $106.47, entered macd bear mode at close on Jan. 20 (at $113.89)
• Fear index or volatility (VIX) 26.72, bull (bearish for stocks), Jan.20 (18.68)
• Treasury long bonds (TLT) $91.95, bear, Feb. 3 ($90.35)
• Corporate junk bonds (JNK) $37.78, bear, Jan. 19 ($39.87) 
• Emerging markets (EEM) $37.01, bear, Jan. 15 ($41.95)
• Gold (GLD) $104.23, bear, Feb. 4 ($103.32)
• Oil (USO) $34.95, bear, Feb. 15, ($38.40)

Forex currency pairs:

• Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) $1.3664, bear, Jan. 20 ($1.4106)
• Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) ¥89.26, bear, Jan. 12 (90.97)

Stock options holdings, February expiry:

• CVS, iron condor (p29/-p31/-c34/c36) $32.64, bear, Jan. 21 ($33.24)
  
• ERTS, iron condor (p15/-p16/-c18/c19)  $17.47, bull, Feb. 4 ($16.98) (Earnings after market close today.)
• MCO, covered call (-c30) $27.06, bear, Feb. 4 (26.39)
• PALM, covered call (s/-c13)  $10.05, bear, Jan. 26 ($11.17)

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