The SPY exchange-traded fund, in today's early price action, has pulled away from a very near term high set yesterday. The lower high, if it stands, will mark the end of a rise that carried blue-chips up 6.7% from Feb. 5 to yesterday.
In a broader view, SPY began a downtrend in January after a 71.6% rise that began in March 2009.
The Macd is in bull territory, and the money-flow index is well below the overbought line. Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) are trading narrowly at the top of a range that has been in force the past three days, with a bearish Macd and neutral money-flow index. A rise in bond prices means a decline in interest rates. However, TLT is trading just 0.3% above yesterday's close, a gap so narrow that I chalk it up to random noise. The euro is barely moving against the dollar (EUR/USD), despite media narratives early in the day that tried make the euro's woes a motivating factor for a decline in U.S. stocks. Not credible, in my book. The dollar declined against the yen (USD/JPY) for the third straight day. Altogether the price move has cost the dollar a 1.7% loss in its yen-denominated value. Oil (USO) has gapped down from a top and is trading 1% below yesterday's close. If the lower high stands, then an end has come to an uptrend that saw USO rise 15% from Feb. 5 until yesterday. | An economic forecaster gives an optimistic assessment of the road ahead. The subtitle says it all: "Why capitalism trumps fear and the economy will thrive". |
My zombie holding, PALM, gapped down 6% this morning on analyst's downgrades. The position is left over from a February covered call that expired unexercised. Since my basis is $11.80, I can't sell a new covered call at these levels without risking a huge percentage loss. So this zombie will have to stalk my portfolio for a awhile, scaring the children but otherwise harmless.
Let's run the numbers:
Indicators, at about 10 a.m. Eastern:
- Blue chip stocks etf (SPY) is trading at $110.30, entered macd bull mode at close on Feb. 15 (at $109.74)
- Fear index or volatility (VIX) 20.84, bear (bullish for stocks), Feb. 12 (22.73)
- Treasury long bonds (TLT) $89.73, bear, Feb. 9 ($91.18)
- Corporate junk bonds (JNK) $38.80, bull, Feb. 18 ($38.40)
- Emerging markets (EEM) $39.93, bull, Feb. 16 ($39.43)
- Gold (GLD) $108.35, bull, Feb. 12 ($107.04)
- Oil (USO) $38.23, bull, Feb. 10, ($36.51)
Forex currency pairs:
- Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) $1.3543, bull, Feb. 19 ($1.3611)
- Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) ¥90.43, bull, Feb. 16 (90.13)
- AKS, iron condor (p19/-p20/-c25/c26), $22.56, bull, Feb. 12 ($21.68)
- CAL, covered call (-c19), $20.01, bull, Feb. 16 ($19.88)
- CSCO, iron condor (p22/-p23/-c25/c26), $24.06, bull, Feb. 8 (23.50)
- GCI, covered call (-c15), $14.90, bull, Feb. 18 ($15.27)
- WFC, iron condor (p26/-p27/-c29/c30), $27.73, bull, Feb. 22 ($28.01)
Zombie shares:
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