1/5 Watchlist

The Treasury long bonds (TLT) continue to show a potential pps bull signal on a rise from the open today of half a percent. Rising bond prices means falling interest rates (an amazing idea, given how low rates are already). I need to note that this etf fails the trend test. It has been trending mainly downward for a year. On the other hand, the macd and stochastic indicators are pointing in a bull direction.

The yen per dollar currency pair (USD/JPY) continues to show a bear flag, meaning stronger yen/weaker dollar, on a decline from the open of 0.9%.

Other movers today among my indicators and holdings:

• Corporate junk bonds (JNK), up 1.2% (meaning falling rates)
• LVS, a holding of mine in the form of a January covered call (-c16) is up 6.5% from the open after an overnight gap, a rise of similar magnitude, and another gap over the New Year's holiday. New reports are crediting gambling revenues in Macau, where Las Vegas Sands also operates. (What happens in Macau stays in Macau -- you betcha). I'll profit, but I would have profited more with a straight bull position without the covered call.
  
• KO has fallen 2.4% the last three trading days and sits nicely in profitable territory on my iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60)
• SBUX, a bull holding,  jumped 4.5% from the open, although it has pulled back a bit. This is on the third day since a pps bear signal, with no new bull sig. Earnings is Jan. 20.
• SMH, a bull holding, is down a percent from the open.

Here's what else is interesting among high-volume . . .

. . . exchange-traded funds (etf):

• XLE, the energy etf, is up 2.2% in two days, with the pps, macd and stochastic all in bull mode. The 20-day moving average is slightly below the ma50, and poised for a crossover, restoring the standard 20-50-200 bullish order.
• FXI, the etf that tracks London's FTSE index, gapped up this morning and is trading 2.6% above yesterday's open. The issue fails the trend test -- it is a sideways meanderer -- but the macd and stochastic are in bull mode. The ma20, however, is trading below the ma50 and is trending downward, giving a bearish cast to the chart.
• KBE, which tracks a banking index, is up 2.7% from yesterday's open, the day after a pps bull signal. The trend is sideways, but the macd and stochastic are in bull mode.
• EWM, the Malaysian market etf, showing rise-gap-rise-gap-rise (the infamous rgrgr -- or roger-roger -- pattern, known as the inverse Asian Tiger roar). The trend is rangebound between about 10.40 and 11.20; pps, macd and stochastic all in bull mode.
  

. . . corporate stocks:

• JPM continues its rise after yesterday's pps bull signal
  
• KFT gaps up, and signals, on news.
• T drops below the point where it gave a pps bull signal yesterday. The chart shows a nice uptrend, though.
• CHK breaks past previous upside resistance with bull signals all around (but a sideways trend).
• QCOM gaps up with good trend, macd and stochastic in what appears to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is bullish. Nice uptrend since mid-December and the all indicators are in bull mode. My problem is, when everyone sees the pattern, it kills the uncertainty and therefore the potential for profit.
• DOW with a nice rise through resistance after a pps bull flag yesterday, preceded by macd and stochastic bull signals
• CAL, large rise and a new pps bull flag, confirmed with the macd and stochastic, on a move through resistance and rising trend, and on news about revenue data. So the good news for the bottom line is no doubt already in the price.
• WMT, with a sideways trend, is showing the famous double whiplash pps signal, a bear, a bull and a bear within three days. The macd is heading toward bull territory, and the stochastic toward bear. Confused puppy mode, for sure.
• No new signals on MRVL, but it has a picture-perfect upward trend since late November and is blue sky (no resistance).

Topics:

Treasury bonds, Coca-Cola, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, semiconductors, dollar yen forex, petroleum oil energy crude, London United Kingdom U.K., banks financial KBW banking index, Malaysia, J.P. Morgan, AT&T telecommunications, Chesapeake Energy, Qualcom, Dow Chemical, Continental Airlines, Wal-Mart retail, Marvell Technology semiconductors.

12/14 Watchlist

Among the indicators, blue chips (SPY) continues to show a bull signal, but I'm not sure that I trust it. The chart showed a drop at the open from 111.87 down to  105.48, and then a quick recovery back up to slightly below 112. I won't act on the signal until I see some price confirmation.
Otherwise, there are no new indicator or currency signals.

New signals among high-volume stocks and etfs are big on energy, emerging markets, and additions to the S&P 500 index. I find VALE to be the most interesting, because it has the clearest trend, and QQQQ, because of its position as one of the top two etfs:

• VALE, bull, uptrend since March, pause since mid-November. Wonderful trend. 

Others:

• XTO, bull on a sharp gap upward on news. Exxon-Mobil announced it would take over XTO Energy.
• QQQQ, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November.
• EEM, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since mid-November.
• CHK, bull on a gap up, downtrend since early November
• MSFT, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November
•  OSK, bear on a decline from 41.42 down to 33, on news about an Army contract
• WMT, bear, up since early october, sideways since early December. Confused puppy mode: It's the third signal in seven trading days.
• XLK, bull, uptrend since March. The fifth signal in 15 days; also a confused pup.
• IYR, bull, uptrend since March, sideways (with some good volatility) since early September.
• MJN, bull, uptrend since April, sideways since August, and a fair dinkum drop from late September. It was added to the S&P500.
• PM, bull, up since January, sideways from early September.
• IWO, bull, up since March.
• HAL, bull, down since October
• DVN, bull on a gap up, sideways since October with a drop this month.
• COP, bull, sideways since October.
• PG, bull, up since March. This issue has a wonderful uptrend but has been giving some confused puppy signals since September. So, I'd be prepared for a disappointment on this one.
• APC, bull, downtrend since September.
• EOG, bull on a gap up, sideways to down since September
• SWN, bull on a gap up, down since October
  

Follow-up:

• ORCL gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Friday.
• V gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Thursday. It was added to the S&P500.
• APOL rose through resistance after a bull signal on Thursday.
• BBY blew past resistance after a bull signal on Friday.

No new signals on my holdings.

12/3 Watchlist

Some new stocks to look at from among those trading 5 million shares or more at this point in the market day:

(pps bull signals)

HGSI since July has had the pattern of moving sideways until earnings, when it gaps up. No earnings are pending, so I think it's a trade only for a calendar spread at strike 28.

RIMM has been trading in a downward pattern since a large gap down in early October. I would reject the pps signal as contrary to the trend.

HIG has been trading sideways since early October, a pause in an upward trend that began in March. Shares are trading at 24.60 with upside resistance at just below 30 and support at about 23. An attractive possibility.

(pps bear signals)

USB has paused in an upward trend since March. I would reject the trade as contrarian.

ARO gapped down on earnings today and is below resistance. I would expect a pause at this point and perhaps an attempt to fill in the gap, so I wouldn't enter this trade now. It does have a lot of room on the downside, however.

ANF shows a sharp downward move to below the 20-day simple moving average in  the midst of an upward trend. This is in line with its pattern over the past year of stair-stepping up. Possibly a good bull trade at the next pps signal.

SBUX has been essentially flat since mid-August. The Bollinger bands are narrowing, suggesting a change.. My best guess is that the change would be  to resume the uptrend that has held since March.

My earlier watchlist stocks:

(pps bull signals)

IWM down today, trading at 59.68. Upside resistance is at 60.75, so there's not a lot of potential there.

MSFT is trading at 30, about at resistance. It is still unconfirmed by the mfi, which is pointing down.

ORCL has moved up to resistance, exhausting its potential on this leg.

(pps bear signals)

CHK is at 23.20, with resistance at about 22.80 and an upward trending mfi. No joy.


(former problem child)

GLD remains about where it was yesterday, when I closed.

Holdings:

KO is dropping back toward profitability in my iron triangle, which spans from 57.50 to 52.50.

UNG stands right below the profitability point in its covered call (a short call option plus long shares).

Trading decisions after 3:30 p.m. EST (12:30 p.m. PST).

12/3 Morningline

(All analyses use the pps/mfi except currencies, which use the pps/rsi.)

Holdings:

• KO is holding about about the same level as yesterday.
• UNG is at 8.62, about at my basis.

Possiblities identified in yesteday's Watchlist:

• IWM will be a bullish position if it bumps past resistance at about 60.74
  
• MSFT (bull) is at resistance, with the pps indicator unconfirmed by an mfi upturn.
• ORCL (bull) also at resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi direction.
  
• CHK (bear) holding steady at yesterday's close, and the mfi has turned upward, negating the pps signal.
  
• BK (bull) is rising toward resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi.

Indicators:

• SPY (blue chips) remains in bull mode, confirmed by the mfi, but with little change in price since the pps signal was given five days ago.
  
• TLT (Treasury long bonds) remains in bear mode, with a gap down this morning that returns the price to its low of Nov. 23. Interest rates move the opposite of the TLT price.
• GLD (gold) is steady at about our exit point of yesteday, in pps bull mode confirmed by the mfi.
  

The VIX (fear index) has opened at  about yesterday's close after a five-day decline that puts it in the range of the lowest levels of the past three months.

Currencies:

• EUR/USD (Dollars per Euro) is in pps bull mode with the rsi, like the price, trending sideways.
  
• USD/JPY (Yen per Dollar) is in pps bull mode, and prices have actually begun to rise, after falling for 11 days after the pps signal was given. The rsi is also rising.

On GLD:

My losing bear trade, closed yesterday, was based on analysis using Bollinger bands with the money flow index. If GLD gets a reversal signal from the pps/mfi combo, I'll need to decide whether to re-open a bearish position in GLD. I'll be watching for that possibility today.