12/7 Watchlist

Here is how my holdings stand:

HIG is showing a pps bear indicator, and I shall close the bullish position if the indicator persists into the last half hour.

KO, in bull mode, stands just above the max profitability point of my iron condor. No action.

UNG, showing a pps bull indicator, hit near-term upside resistance and pulled back a bit. No action.

Among the high-volume stocks:

• HPQ shows a pps bull signal in a retracement during an up trend.
  
• X shows a pps bear signal at the top of an upward retracement in a larger down trend. 

Both are possible trades.


Among the high volume ETFs, no joy:

• FXI (tracking the FTSE index) is showing a new pps bear signal in a sideways trend. The mfi is wishy-washy, so no trade.
• DIA (tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average) also shows a new pps bear signal in a sideways trend, with the mfi pointing downward. I would feel happier about this one than FXI, but this is the fifth pps signal since Nov. 20 with no price change to speak of, so no trade. 

Looking at another possibility:

GLD, having opened at 111.51 this morning following Friday's fall from 117.15, has retraced up to 114.22 and then pulled back again. Despite Friday's pps bull signal, this is not a bear trade I would take, despite the retracement. The 20-day and 200-day moving averages remain up, and the form of the price action is that of a retracement in an upward trend. If the price were to pierce 104 downward, retrace above that and then continue downward to a new low since Dec. 3, then I would consider the likelihood of a new trend being in place. Otherwise, I'll play the upside.

12/7 Morningline

Blue chips (SPY) are starting the the week little changed from Friday's close and from a pps bull signal five trading days earlier. The fear index (VIX) is also little changed and is in bear mode (bullish for stocks).

Treasury long bonds (TLT) has paused in a sharp decline that began with a pps bear signal five trading days earlier.

Gold (GLD) has opened slightly lower after an early-day pps bear signal on Friday followed by a 5% decline. The price is at a near-term minor support level.

The dollar continues to decline against the Euro (EUR/USD) on the second trading day since a pps bear signal, and the yen, on the third trading day since a pps bull signal, has paused after a large price rise.

My holdings:

HIG, a January p26/-p27 bull put spread, remains little changed since Friday. In pps bull mode.

KO, a January p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60 iron condor, remains a the top range of profitability, in pps bull mode.

UNG, a December -c9 covered call, has moved back above the strike price and would be profitable if it expired at this level. In pps bear mode.

I'll make trading decisions in the last half hour of the day. One item on the list: A possible bearish position in GLD is looking good.

12/4 Morningline

(Analyzed using pps/mfi, except for currencies, where pps/rsi is used.)

Holdings:

• HIG, a January bull put spread, is at yesterday's open and not moving.
• KO, at 57.9, has risen to just outside the max profit range of my 52.5 to 57.5 January iron condor
• UNG, a December covered call, has gapped slightly on the open to 0.07 above the 8.63 basis.

Indicators:

• SPY (blue chips) in bull mode with a sidewise price.
• TLT (Treasury long bonds) bear mode, with the price having dropped nearly 3 points since the signal appeared on Dec. 1. Declining TLT price means rising interest rates.
  
• GLD (precious metals) is showing a bear pps signal on a drop of 3 from yesterday's all time high. Confirmed by the mfi.
• VIX (fear index) in bear mode, and steady. A bearish VIX is bullish for stocks.

Currencies:

• EUR/USD (dollars per euro) trending sideways in pps bull mode unconfirmed by the rsi (which is also sideways).
• USD/JPY (yen per dollar) rising in bull mode. It fell immediately after the signal was given on Nov. 12 and is only now recovering the signal level.
  

Yesterday's Watchlist:

• GLD may be a candidate for a short open today. See the indicators section.
• IWM, MSFT, ORCL are all in bull mode and trading at resistance.
  

Opened HIG bull put spread

I've opened a January bull put spread in HIG, short the 27 put and long the 28, for a 0.67 credit with shares trading at 24.32.

The position at expiration reaches maximum profitability if shares are at 27 and begins losing money at 26.

12/3 Watchlist

Some new stocks to look at from among those trading 5 million shares or more at this point in the market day:

(pps bull signals)

HGSI since July has had the pattern of moving sideways until earnings, when it gaps up. No earnings are pending, so I think it's a trade only for a calendar spread at strike 28.

RIMM has been trading in a downward pattern since a large gap down in early October. I would reject the pps signal as contrary to the trend.

HIG has been trading sideways since early October, a pause in an upward trend that began in March. Shares are trading at 24.60 with upside resistance at just below 30 and support at about 23. An attractive possibility.

(pps bear signals)

USB has paused in an upward trend since March. I would reject the trade as contrarian.

ARO gapped down on earnings today and is below resistance. I would expect a pause at this point and perhaps an attempt to fill in the gap, so I wouldn't enter this trade now. It does have a lot of room on the downside, however.

ANF shows a sharp downward move to below the 20-day simple moving average in  the midst of an upward trend. This is in line with its pattern over the past year of stair-stepping up. Possibly a good bull trade at the next pps signal.

SBUX has been essentially flat since mid-August. The Bollinger bands are narrowing, suggesting a change.. My best guess is that the change would be  to resume the uptrend that has held since March.

My earlier watchlist stocks:

(pps bull signals)

IWM down today, trading at 59.68. Upside resistance is at 60.75, so there's not a lot of potential there.

MSFT is trading at 30, about at resistance. It is still unconfirmed by the mfi, which is pointing down.

ORCL has moved up to resistance, exhausting its potential on this leg.

(pps bear signals)

CHK is at 23.20, with resistance at about 22.80 and an upward trending mfi. No joy.


(former problem child)

GLD remains about where it was yesterday, when I closed.

Holdings:

KO is dropping back toward profitability in my iron triangle, which spans from 57.50 to 52.50.

UNG stands right below the profitability point in its covered call (a short call option plus long shares).

Trading decisions after 3:30 p.m. EST (12:30 p.m. PST).