12/17 Watchlist

A new bull signal on Treasury long bonds (TLT), and a bear signal on gold (GLD). Otherwise, nothing to add to this morning's discussion of the indicators.

No new signals on the currency pairs (EUR/USD and USD/JPY)

Among holdings:

Three January bull positons -- AET, HPQ, VALE -- have pulled back from peaks. I'm thinking of closing the positions.

LVS, a January covered call, is showing a bear signal, and prices remain in a sideways range.

KO, a January iron condor, has moved back in to max profit territory.

UNG, my December covered call, is trading well above 10. The call is a 9 strike, so the position will be exercised by whoever bought the call.

High-volume stocks and etfs priced $20 and above:

• QQQQ, bear signal, uptrend
  
• EEM, bear with a downward gap, uptrend
  
• JPM, bear, downtrend, but already at resistance
  
• MSFT, bear, uptrend
  
• MJN, bear,sideways trend, on the fourth day following a bull signal; confused puppy mode
• FCX, bear, amid a sharp pullback following an uptrend, the day following a bull signal; drunken sailor mode
• PG, bear, uptrend, on the fourth day following a bull signal (no more metaphors)
  
• FDX, bear, uptrend, on a gap down following earnings
• VWO, bear on a gap down, uptrend
  
• MOS, bear, sideways with some deep fluctuations
  
• DTV, bear, uptrend
  
• IVV, bear, uptrend
  
• XLI, bear, uptrend
  
• XLV, bear, uptrend
  
• VOD, bear, uptrend
  
• AXP, bear, uptrend
  
• GPS, bear (but no gap), trend change (maybe) from up to down
  
• DIA, bear, uptrend
  
• COF, bear, sideways following a strong uptrend
  

So, all in all, a fairly broad switch into bear mode. A lot of the stocks, not just those noted above, showed whipsaws from bull to bear the last few days. With the holiday trading week coming up, closing questionable positions is the prudent course.

JPM is the only trend following trade  in the batch, and since it is already at resistance, I don't find it to be compelling.

No covered call scan today.

12/14 Watchlist

Among the indicators, blue chips (SPY) continues to show a bull signal, but I'm not sure that I trust it. The chart showed a drop at the open from 111.87 down to  105.48, and then a quick recovery back up to slightly below 112. I won't act on the signal until I see some price confirmation.
Otherwise, there are no new indicator or currency signals.

New signals among high-volume stocks and etfs are big on energy, emerging markets, and additions to the S&P 500 index. I find VALE to be the most interesting, because it has the clearest trend, and QQQQ, because of its position as one of the top two etfs:

• VALE, bull, uptrend since March, pause since mid-November. Wonderful trend. 

Others:

• XTO, bull on a sharp gap upward on news. Exxon-Mobil announced it would take over XTO Energy.
• QQQQ, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November.
• EEM, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since mid-November.
• CHK, bull on a gap up, downtrend since early November
• MSFT, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November
•  OSK, bear on a decline from 41.42 down to 33, on news about an Army contract
• WMT, bear, up since early october, sideways since early December. Confused puppy mode: It's the third signal in seven trading days.
• XLK, bull, uptrend since March. The fifth signal in 15 days; also a confused pup.
• IYR, bull, uptrend since March, sideways (with some good volatility) since early September.
• MJN, bull, uptrend since April, sideways since August, and a fair dinkum drop from late September. It was added to the S&P500.
• PM, bull, up since January, sideways from early September.
• IWO, bull, up since March.
• HAL, bull, down since October
• DVN, bull on a gap up, sideways since October with a drop this month.
• COP, bull, sideways since October.
• PG, bull, up since March. This issue has a wonderful uptrend but has been giving some confused puppy signals since September. So, I'd be prepared for a disappointment on this one.
• APC, bull, downtrend since September.
• EOG, bull on a gap up, sideways to down since September
• SWN, bull on a gap up, down since October
  

Follow-up:

• ORCL gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Friday.
• V gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Thursday. It was added to the S&P500.
• APOL rose through resistance after a bull signal on Thursday.
• BBY blew past resistance after a bull signal on Friday.

No new signals on my holdings.

12/8 Watchlist

I've found one possibly decent trade, and that one ambiguous, after scanning all etfs and stocks with volume of 5,000,000 and up for pps signals, status of mfi confirmation by direction, and the trend.

The one possibility is AET, which showing a bull pps signal, confirmed by the direction of the mfi. True, the stock has been in a sideways trend since March, but the bull signal is coming at the top of a fluctuation cycle that has been running about a month measured peak to peak.

AET is not yet quit at resistance, and I want to see what happens. If the price breaks above 31.25, then it might be a trade a for me.

Here's the reject list, showing pps signals with status of mfi confirmation by direction and trend:

• SPY, bear, confirmed, sideways
• EEM, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• MSFT, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  
• ORCL,  bear, confirmed, sideways
• MRK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• HD, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
• XLI, bear, confirmed, sideways
• ITUB, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• DIA, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• PG, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLP, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• VWO, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• TWX, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement on news
• BBD, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
• XLK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement

I've rejected the sideways trenders (except AET, as described above) because they tend to be too short term for my purposes. My ideal options position will be short (i.e., I sold the options)  and will last for 30 days and trend in my direction, giving me a bump from both the price rise and theta decay.


I also rejected the counter-trend retracements, since my present strategy is to trade with the larger trend.

In today's scan, I gave little thought to mfi confirmation. There was just so much not to like that the mfi became irrelevant.

In my holdings:

HPQ has lost the bear signal it showed at the opening this morning and has barely budged during the day. So, no action appears necessary.

X is looking nicely bearish in line with my position.

UNG, at 0.46 above the strike of my 9.00 covered call, is showing a bull signal. For tomorrow I'll do  calculation of when (if) it makes sense to sell the call and retain the shares rather than waiting for exercise.

KO, in bull mode with a sideways price, remains at the top of max profitability of my iron condor.

The indicators -- SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY -- remain as described in the Morningline.