2/16 Watchlist

Blue-chip stocks (SPY) have moved up into a region of contegstion set in late January and early February. The exchange-traded fund is showing a macd bull signal for the first time in 17 trading days. The associated fear index, the VIX, is down slightly from Friday's close. A decline in the VIX generlly means a rise in SPY.

Treasury long bonds (TLT) have pulled back up from this morning's decline and are trading at the top of a three-trading-day range. It continues to show a macd bear signal.

High-yield corporate bonds (JNK) are trading at the top of the range set last week and have traversed 1.3% low to high in trading today. The macd is bearish, as it has been since mid-January.

1/21 Watchlist: Don't Panic Yet. It's All Good.

Blue chip stocks tumbled as much as 2.1 percent from today's open to the low (so far), on a bear signal from Person's Proprietary Signal. The so-called fear index (VIX) rose 18.8 percent on a bull signal.
The news coverage no doubt will be apocalypic. But, it is important to note that the S&P500 (represented here by SPY, the exchange-traded fund) remain in a bullish price pattern.

The bull price pattern is a series of high highs and higher lowers. The market never moves in a straight line for long periods of time. As J.P. Morgan said when asked what the market would do: "It will fluctuate." That's no less  true today than in his day.

1/19 Watchlist: Whipsaw Fever, Nothing is Forever

The blue chip stocks (SPY) are showing a pps bull signal, after they showed a pps bear signal just one trading day prior, and have retraced all of the loss they showed on the day before the long holiday weekend. This is the Mother of All Whipsaws. It certainly justifies my cautious stance on Friday.

Also goes to show, in the markets, nothing is forever. Ever.

The other indicators: The same as I noted in the Morningline, except more so.

Here's what's interesting in high-volume . . .

1/12 Watchlist: SPY, many etfs show bear signals; Fear flies;

Blue chips (SPY) show a pps bear signal on a decline of 1.1% from Monday's close. The mfi and stochastic are falling toward their respective 80-lines. The macd remains in bull territory. The price remains above the 20-day moving average.

The decline is consistent with a minor pullback within an uptrend that began in early March 2008. A decline below the ma20 would suggest a larger decline, such as that seen in June and July last year, as well as in September, October and November.

The blue chips' bear signal coincides with a gap up and sharp rise in volatility (VIX, the fear index). It is trading 9.2% above Monday's close.

Gold (GLD) also shows a bear signal and a 2.2% drop from yesterday's close, with the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average but the price above the 50-day. Oil (USO) shows a similar pattern with a pps bear signal.

Bear signals all over the major exchange-traded funds. See below

Otherwise, the signals on indicators and currencies remain as described in the Morningline.

Here's what's interesting among high-volume . . .

1/5 Lookahead

On Tuesday I'll be watching the general etfs, SPY and QQQQ, and the energy sector, such as USO and XLE, to see how they follow through from Monday's bull signals.

Most of the price movement in those etfs happened at the outset of trading, and the rest of the day they just marked time.

Economic releases: motor vehicle sales, and at 10ae (7pe) factory orders and pending home sales.

January options will expire in 10 calendar days, February's in 45 days.

Topics: S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Nasdaq, energy, oil.

1/4 Watchlist

Problem-child SBUX, which I entered as a January bull put spread (p22.5/-p24), continues to trade down. It's about 6 cents above support. If it breaks through, I'll close the position.

The pps bull signal on LVS, which I hold as a January covered call, continues to exist. No impact on the position.

Otherwise, my holdings are where I want them to be.

Among the indicators, SPY shows a pps bull signal, after showing a bear signal on Dec. 31, the last trading day. It is trading slightly high than the previous trading day's high.

JNK continues to show a pps bull signal on an increase, as does GLD.

USO, the oil etf, remains at the level it gapped up to this morning, but shows to signal. The closely related energy sector etf, XLE, shows the gap and a pps signal, but a pretty sorry trend profile. Any bullish position on XLE would be a counter-trend strategy.

Among the currencies, EUR/USD continues to show a pps bull signal, but it is unsupported by the trend.

Scanning the high-volume etfs for those showing signals and a supporting trend

• QQQQ, pps bull signal one trading day after a bear signal
• EEM, gap up on the 5th day after a pps bull signal; stochastic bull
  
• IWM, pps bull one trading day after a bear
  
• VWO, gap up and bull signals on the macd and stochastic while crossing above the 20-day moving average. No pps signal, and the trend is sideways. 

Of these, I find QQQQ to be the most interesting. But, first day of trading, sort of an unusual day by definition. I shall wait and see (while watching the Qs and the oils closely).

I didn't find a lot to like on the stocks. Mainly, there were a lot of gaps up and signals whipsawing bear signals last week, and not supported by the trend. So, no trades. I'll wait and see.

• T, pps bull, also existing bull signals on macd and stochastic
• MS, pps bull and an existing macd bull and ma20 breakthrough; its a counter-trend trade at  this point, but the power of the gap up suggests a new trend forming.
• NVS, significant gap down after a pps bear signal the prior trading day, amid a sideways trend.

Topics:, S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, gold, oil, petroleum, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, iShares emerging markets, Russell 2000, Vanguard emerging markets, AT&T telecommunications telcon, Morgan Stanley banking, Novartis Switzerland health care.

12/21 Watchlist

It's Christmas week, and I'll be scanning in holiday mode this week and next: I'll check out the indicators and currencies, and of course watch my holdings like a paranoid hawk.

But, for new entries, I shall be scanning only a few high-volume etfs, and most likely won't be opening any new positions. might be opening positions, if they're really compelling, as SMH seems to be (see below).

A new bear signal on the fear index (VIX), but oddly not on the blue-chips (SPY) whose volatility the VIX measures. The VIX is trading at 20.33, down 5.3% from the open. The signal comes two days after a bull signal amid a downtrend that began in January.

Treasury long bonds (TLT) shows a bear signal, two days after giving a bull signal. TLT is trading at 91.55, down 0.5% from the open.

Otherwise, no new signals on the indicators, the currencies or my holdings.


High-volume etfs (ignoring shorts and multiples):

• QQQQ (the NASDAQ), bull signal in an uptrend that begin in March. The etf has given three signal reversals in six trading days.
• XLF (financials), bull signal, strong uptrend began in March, and a less convincing retracement downward in October.
• UYG (financials), bull signal, uptrend began in March, retracement in October.
• XRT (retail), bull signal in a sideways trend since October, reversing Friday's bull signal.
• SMH (semiconductors), bull signal on a gap up, in an uptrend since March and a sideways trend since the beginning of December.

The SMH signal is the most convincing of the lot.

12/17 Watchlist

A new bull signal on Treasury long bonds (TLT), and a bear signal on gold (GLD). Otherwise, nothing to add to this morning's discussion of the indicators.

No new signals on the currency pairs (EUR/USD and USD/JPY)

Among holdings:

Three January bull positons -- AET, HPQ, VALE -- have pulled back from peaks. I'm thinking of closing the positions.

LVS, a January covered call, is showing a bear signal, and prices remain in a sideways range.

KO, a January iron condor, has moved back in to max profit territory.

UNG, my December covered call, is trading well above 10. The call is a 9 strike, so the position will be exercised by whoever bought the call.

High-volume stocks and etfs priced $20 and above:

• QQQQ, bear signal, uptrend
  
• EEM, bear with a downward gap, uptrend
  
• JPM, bear, downtrend, but already at resistance
  
• MSFT, bear, uptrend
  
• MJN, bear,sideways trend, on the fourth day following a bull signal; confused puppy mode
• FCX, bear, amid a sharp pullback following an uptrend, the day following a bull signal; drunken sailor mode
• PG, bear, uptrend, on the fourth day following a bull signal (no more metaphors)
  
• FDX, bear, uptrend, on a gap down following earnings
• VWO, bear on a gap down, uptrend
  
• MOS, bear, sideways with some deep fluctuations
  
• DTV, bear, uptrend
  
• IVV, bear, uptrend
  
• XLI, bear, uptrend
  
• XLV, bear, uptrend
  
• VOD, bear, uptrend
  
• AXP, bear, uptrend
  
• GPS, bear (but no gap), trend change (maybe) from up to down
  
• DIA, bear, uptrend
  
• COF, bear, sideways following a strong uptrend
  

So, all in all, a fairly broad switch into bear mode. A lot of the stocks, not just those noted above, showed whipsaws from bull to bear the last few days. With the holiday trading week coming up, closing questionable positions is the prudent course.

JPM is the only trend following trade  in the batch, and since it is already at resistance, I don't find it to be compelling.

No covered call scan today.

12/14 Watchlist

Among the indicators, blue chips (SPY) continues to show a bull signal, but I'm not sure that I trust it. The chart showed a drop at the open from 111.87 down to  105.48, and then a quick recovery back up to slightly below 112. I won't act on the signal until I see some price confirmation.
Otherwise, there are no new indicator or currency signals.

New signals among high-volume stocks and etfs are big on energy, emerging markets, and additions to the S&P 500 index. I find VALE to be the most interesting, because it has the clearest trend, and QQQQ, because of its position as one of the top two etfs:

• VALE, bull, uptrend since March, pause since mid-November. Wonderful trend. 

Others:

• XTO, bull on a sharp gap upward on news. Exxon-Mobil announced it would take over XTO Energy.
• QQQQ, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November.
• EEM, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since mid-November.
• CHK, bull on a gap up, downtrend since early November
• MSFT, bull, uptrend since March, sideways since late November
•  OSK, bear on a decline from 41.42 down to 33, on news about an Army contract
• WMT, bear, up since early october, sideways since early December. Confused puppy mode: It's the third signal in seven trading days.
• XLK, bull, uptrend since March. The fifth signal in 15 days; also a confused pup.
• IYR, bull, uptrend since March, sideways (with some good volatility) since early September.
• MJN, bull, uptrend since April, sideways since August, and a fair dinkum drop from late September. It was added to the S&P500.
• PM, bull, up since January, sideways from early September.
• IWO, bull, up since March.
• HAL, bull, down since October
• DVN, bull on a gap up, sideways since October with a drop this month.
• COP, bull, sideways since October.
• PG, bull, up since March. This issue has a wonderful uptrend but has been giving some confused puppy signals since September. So, I'd be prepared for a disappointment on this one.
• APC, bull, downtrend since September.
• EOG, bull on a gap up, sideways to down since September
• SWN, bull on a gap up, down since October
  

Follow-up:

• ORCL gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Friday.
• V gapped up through resistance today after showing a bull signal on Thursday. It was added to the S&P500.
• APOL rose through resistance after a bull signal on Thursday.
• BBY blew past resistance after a bull signal on Friday.

No new signals on my holdings.

12/10 Watchlist

AET has penetrated resistance decisively on the third day after a bull signal and is a buy at 31.70 or below with upside resistance around 33.70. See the discussion in yesterday's Watchlist.

I've opened a bull put spread (p31/-p32) in AET at 31.70 for 0.47 credit. The position is profitable on expiration in January from about 31.55 upward.

New signals among the high-volume stocks and etfs, with the signal, mfi confirmation status, and the trend:

• QQQQ, bull, confirmed, sideways
• ORCL, bull, confirmed, sideways
• BMY, bull, confirmed, sideways
• SBUX, bull, confirmed, sideways
• UNH, bull, confirmed, sideways
• QCOM, bull, confirmed, sideways
• XLK, bull, confirmed, sideways
• CVS, bull, unconfirmed, sideways
• BAX, bull confirmed, sideways (at resistance following strong gain)
• MT, bull, confirmed, sideways

BAX has some interest. I'm not opening a position because of the sideways trend, but it could be a play.

The rest are mainly whipsawing in confused puppy mode -- a series of bull and bear signals every few days.

Indicators: The VIX bear signal (bullish for stocks) noted in this morning's Morningline has disappeared. Other indicators remain as described.

Holdings:

UNG had a sharp rise today and the December covered call (-c9) will be exercised at this level. The trade remains profitable.

HPQ, a January bull put spread (p40/-p50) remains in bull mode iwth a price rise today.

KO is trading above the upper end of profitability at expiry of the January iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60).

X, showing a bull signal from yesterday, contrary to my Janurary bear call spread (-c40/c41), is pulling back a bit at the upper end of yesterday's trading range.

Currencies (paper trade):

USD/JPY remains in bear mode and is trading within yesterday's trading range. I continue to hold my short position.