2/16 Watchlist

Blue-chip stocks (SPY) have moved up into a region of contegstion set in late January and early February. The exchange-traded fund is showing a macd bull signal for the first time in 17 trading days. The associated fear index, the VIX, is down slightly from Friday's close. A decline in the VIX generlly means a rise in SPY.

Treasury long bonds (TLT) have pulled back up from this morning's decline and are trading at the top of a three-trading-day range. It continues to show a macd bear signal.

High-yield corporate bonds (JNK) are trading at the top of the range set last week and have traversed 1.3% low to high in trading today. The macd is bearish, as it has been since mid-January.

1/21 Watchlist: Don't Panic Yet. It's All Good.

Blue chip stocks tumbled as much as 2.1 percent from today's open to the low (so far), on a bear signal from Person's Proprietary Signal. The so-called fear index (VIX) rose 18.8 percent on a bull signal.
The news coverage no doubt will be apocalypic. But, it is important to note that the S&P500 (represented here by SPY, the exchange-traded fund) remain in a bullish price pattern.

The bull price pattern is a series of high highs and higher lowers. The market never moves in a straight line for long periods of time. As J.P. Morgan said when asked what the market would do: "It will fluctuate." That's no less  true today than in his day.

1/15 Watchlist: The Blue Chip Bears

Blue chip stocks (SPY) are showing a bear signal and have dropped 1.3 percent from the opening price. The price has stalled at very near term resistance. This comes amid falling interest rates on 20- and 30-year Treasury bonds, and falling prices for gold and oil.

In terms of other technical analysis on the blue chips, the stochastic has crossed below the 80-line, a bearish signal. The macd remains in bullish territory. The price was approaching the upper Bollinger band, and the bands were widening, which can be taken as signaling continuation of the upward trend.

The blue chips have been in a strong upward trend since March. This signal is countertrend, and not a trade for me. Especially with so many mixed signals.

Here's what's interesting among high-volume . . .

1/12 Watchlist: SPY, many etfs show bear signals; Fear flies;

Blue chips (SPY) show a pps bear signal on a decline of 1.1% from Monday's close. The mfi and stochastic are falling toward their respective 80-lines. The macd remains in bull territory. The price remains above the 20-day moving average.

The decline is consistent with a minor pullback within an uptrend that began in early March 2008. A decline below the ma20 would suggest a larger decline, such as that seen in June and July last year, as well as in September, October and November.

The blue chips' bear signal coincides with a gap up and sharp rise in volatility (VIX, the fear index). It is trading 9.2% above Monday's close.

Gold (GLD) also shows a bear signal and a 2.2% drop from yesterday's close, with the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average but the price above the 50-day. Oil (USO) shows a similar pattern with a pps bear signal.

Bear signals all over the major exchange-traded funds. See below

Otherwise, the signals on indicators and currencies remain as described in the Morningline.

Here's what's interesting among high-volume . . .

1/6 Watchlist

Treasury long bonds (TLT) are declining in price, contrary to yesterday's pps bull signal. Otherwise, all indicators are in line with the signals noted in the Morningline.
The dollar is rising against the yen (USD/JPY), contrary to yesterday's pps bear signal, but remains nearly contained within the prior day's range. The stochastic is in bear mode, and the macd is heading that way. The 20-day moving average is rising and is above its 50-day counterpart.

The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) is in the ninth day of a sideways move.

My holding are marking time, except for MRVL, which shows a small rise. My positions is a bull put spread (p20/-p22.5).

Also interesting among the high-volume . . .

1/5 Watchlist

The Treasury long bonds (TLT) continue to show a potential pps bull signal on a rise from the open today of half a percent. Rising bond prices means falling interest rates (an amazing idea, given how low rates are already). I need to note that this etf fails the trend test. It has been trending mainly downward for a year. On the other hand, the macd and stochastic indicators are pointing in a bull direction.

The yen per dollar currency pair (USD/JPY) continues to show a bear flag, meaning stronger yen/weaker dollar, on a decline from the open of 0.9%.

Other movers today among my indicators and holdings:

• Corporate junk bonds (JNK), up 1.2% (meaning falling rates)
• LVS, a holding of mine in the form of a January covered call (-c16) is up 6.5% from the open after an overnight gap, a rise of similar magnitude, and another gap over the New Year's holiday. New reports are crediting gambling revenues in Macau, where Las Vegas Sands also operates. (What happens in Macau stays in Macau -- you betcha). I'll profit, but I would have profited more with a straight bull position without the covered call.
  
• KO has fallen 2.4% the last three trading days and sits nicely in profitable territory on my iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60)
• SBUX, a bull holding,  jumped 4.5% from the open, although it has pulled back a bit. This is on the third day since a pps bear signal, with no new bull sig. Earnings is Jan. 20.
• SMH, a bull holding, is down a percent from the open.

Here's what else is interesting among high-volume . . .

. . . exchange-traded funds (etf):

• XLE, the energy etf, is up 2.2% in two days, with the pps, macd and stochastic all in bull mode. The 20-day moving average is slightly below the ma50, and poised for a crossover, restoring the standard 20-50-200 bullish order.
• FXI, the etf that tracks London's FTSE index, gapped up this morning and is trading 2.6% above yesterday's open. The issue fails the trend test -- it is a sideways meanderer -- but the macd and stochastic are in bull mode. The ma20, however, is trading below the ma50 and is trending downward, giving a bearish cast to the chart.
• KBE, which tracks a banking index, is up 2.7% from yesterday's open, the day after a pps bull signal. The trend is sideways, but the macd and stochastic are in bull mode.
• EWM, the Malaysian market etf, showing rise-gap-rise-gap-rise (the infamous rgrgr -- or roger-roger -- pattern, known as the inverse Asian Tiger roar). The trend is rangebound between about 10.40 and 11.20; pps, macd and stochastic all in bull mode.
  

. . . corporate stocks:

• JPM continues its rise after yesterday's pps bull signal
  
• KFT gaps up, and signals, on news.
• T drops below the point where it gave a pps bull signal yesterday. The chart shows a nice uptrend, though.
• CHK breaks past previous upside resistance with bull signals all around (but a sideways trend).
• QCOM gaps up with good trend, macd and stochastic in what appears to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is bullish. Nice uptrend since mid-December and the all indicators are in bull mode. My problem is, when everyone sees the pattern, it kills the uncertainty and therefore the potential for profit.
• DOW with a nice rise through resistance after a pps bull flag yesterday, preceded by macd and stochastic bull signals
• CAL, large rise and a new pps bull flag, confirmed with the macd and stochastic, on a move through resistance and rising trend, and on news about revenue data. So the good news for the bottom line is no doubt already in the price.
• WMT, with a sideways trend, is showing the famous double whiplash pps signal, a bear, a bull and a bear within three days. The macd is heading toward bull territory, and the stochastic toward bear. Confused puppy mode, for sure.
• No new signals on MRVL, but it has a picture-perfect upward trend since late November and is blue sky (no resistance).

Topics:

Treasury bonds, Coca-Cola, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, semiconductors, dollar yen forex, petroleum oil energy crude, London United Kingdom U.K., banks financial KBW banking index, Malaysia, J.P. Morgan, AT&T telecommunications, Chesapeake Energy, Qualcom, Dow Chemical, Continental Airlines, Wal-Mart retail, Marvell Technology semiconductors.

1/5 Morningline

On the charts,

Blue chips, the 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages continue to point upward in ascending time order (ma20, ma50, ma200, top to bottom). Prices are making slightly higher highs and lows, qualifying as an uptrend. The macd and the slow stochastic are both in bull mode.

Long-term federal interest rates are a mirror image: Declining moving averages, the longest on top and then descending. Prices continue to make lower highs and lower lows. However, the macd is approaching the zero-line on an upward move, and the slow stochastic is peeking above the lower 20-line. The surrogate TLT shows  potential pps bull signal.

Both show a steady opening at the 1600-tick granularity.

The U.S. dollar is showing a potential bear signal against the Japanese yen, and the price has dropped nearly a percent from the open.

LVS, a holding, gapped up this morning by 2.3% above yesterday's trading range. My position is a covered call (-c16), so no joy in this rise. (Also, no profit.)

The energy etfs USO and XLE opened at the top of yesterday's trading ranges; USO gpped up yesterday, and XLE showed a smart rise. (USO tracks crude, and XLE tracks energy companies -- a real distinction.)

None of the indicators are going much of anywhere from the open:

• Blue chips (SPY) open at 113.26, entered bull mode at close on Jan. 4 (at 113.33)
• Fear index (VIX) 20.05, bull (bearish for stocks), Dec. 31 (22.68)
• Treasury long bonds (TLT) 90.05, bear, Dec. 21 (91.14)
• Corporate junk bonds (JNK) 39.36, bull, Jan. 4 (39.32)
• Gold (GLD) 109.88, bull, Jan. 4 (109.08)
• Oil (USO) 40.25, bull, Dec. 16, (36.74)

Currency pairs:

• Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) 1.4412, bear, Dec. 4 (1.49)
• Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) 92.49, bull, Dec. 15 (89.60)

Holdings, January expiry, no new signals:

• KO, iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) 56.85, bear, Dec. 29 (57.74)
• LVS, covered call (-c16) 17.01, bull, Jan. 4 (16.62)
  
• SBUX, bull put spread (p22.5/-p24) 22.96, bear, Dec. 30 (23.31)
  
• SMH, bull put spread (p27.5/-p29) 28.45, bull, Dec. 21 (27.62)

Topics:, S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, Coca-Cola, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, semiconductors, energy companies.

1/5 Lookahead

On Tuesday I'll be watching the general etfs, SPY and QQQQ, and the energy sector, such as USO and XLE, to see how they follow through from Monday's bull signals.

Most of the price movement in those etfs happened at the outset of trading, and the rest of the day they just marked time.

Economic releases: motor vehicle sales, and at 10ae (7pe) factory orders and pending home sales.

January options will expire in 10 calendar days, February's in 45 days.

Topics: S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Nasdaq, energy, oil.

1/4 Watchlist

Problem-child SBUX, which I entered as a January bull put spread (p22.5/-p24), continues to trade down. It's about 6 cents above support. If it breaks through, I'll close the position.

The pps bull signal on LVS, which I hold as a January covered call, continues to exist. No impact on the position.

Otherwise, my holdings are where I want them to be.

Among the indicators, SPY shows a pps bull signal, after showing a bear signal on Dec. 31, the last trading day. It is trading slightly high than the previous trading day's high.

JNK continues to show a pps bull signal on an increase, as does GLD.

USO, the oil etf, remains at the level it gapped up to this morning, but shows to signal. The closely related energy sector etf, XLE, shows the gap and a pps signal, but a pretty sorry trend profile. Any bullish position on XLE would be a counter-trend strategy.

Among the currencies, EUR/USD continues to show a pps bull signal, but it is unsupported by the trend.

Scanning the high-volume etfs for those showing signals and a supporting trend

• QQQQ, pps bull signal one trading day after a bear signal
• EEM, gap up on the 5th day after a pps bull signal; stochastic bull
  
• IWM, pps bull one trading day after a bear
  
• VWO, gap up and bull signals on the macd and stochastic while crossing above the 20-day moving average. No pps signal, and the trend is sideways. 

Of these, I find QQQQ to be the most interesting. But, first day of trading, sort of an unusual day by definition. I shall wait and see (while watching the Qs and the oils closely).

I didn't find a lot to like on the stocks. Mainly, there were a lot of gaps up and signals whipsawing bear signals last week, and not supported by the trend. So, no trades. I'll wait and see.

• T, pps bull, also existing bull signals on macd and stochastic
• MS, pps bull and an existing macd bull and ma20 breakthrough; its a counter-trend trade at  this point, but the power of the gap up suggests a new trend forming.
• NVS, significant gap down after a pps bear signal the prior trading day, amid a sideways trend.

Topics:, S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, gold, oil, petroleum, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, iShares emerging markets, Russell 2000, Vanguard emerging markets, AT&T telecommunications telcon, Morgan Stanley banking, Novartis Switzerland health care.

12/23 Watchlist

This is the kind of day when I want to break into a stirring rendition of "I've Got Plenty of Nothin'". (Must add, nothin' is in no way plenty for me.)

No new signals at close on the indicators, currencies or holdings.

The signals identified on etfs in yesterday's Watchlist remain in force. USO and XLE have confirmed their bull signals with nice price rises.

Also, no new pps signals on the highest-volume etfs.

I plan no trades today. Wednesday, the day before Christmas, is a short day of trading. The markets open at 9:30 a.m. and close at 1 p.m. Eastern (6:30 a.m. to 10 a.m. Pacific). Afterward, the next trading day will be Monday, first day of a four day week in the usually very low volume last week of the year.

12/22 Watchlist

No new signals on the indicators, currencies or holdings. Every issue's volume is low.

The pre-close scan, through the end of December, will cover only high-volume etfs (5 million shares and higher in volume), excluding those that are contrarian and those that multiply the underlying. The list will be smaller than usual because of lower volume in the holiday week.

Just for the exercise, today I'll be looking at several technical tools: The Persons proprietary signal (pps), which is my usual tool of choice, but also the price piercing the 20-day moving average (ma20), piercing the 200-day moving average (ma200), 20-day and 200-day moving average crossovers (ma cross), money-flow index (mfi) moves into overbought or oversold territory, the moving average convergence-divergence (macd) and the slow stocastic (sto).

• XLF (financials), macd and ma20, bull
• EWJ (Japan markets), macd confirming sto, bear
• SLV (silver), mfi oversold, bull
• XLU (utilities), macd confirming sto, bear
• USO (oil), macd, bull
  
• XLE (energy), sto confirming macd, bull
• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), ma20, bull

So, out of 30 etfs, no pps signals, a couple of 20-day moving average piercings, a sto, an mfi and five macd signals.

The macd is one of the more sensitive indicators -- this is known. The pps is said by its developer to give earlier valid signals than the others. If that's the case, then today's signals must be whipsaws. I'll continue the multi-track for awhile and we shall see.

Nothing here I would want to trade.

12/15 Watchlist

Indicators, currency pairs and holdings are showing no new signals since the Morningline.
Mobile phone companies showed bear signals after reports that Google plans to enter the cellphone hardware and service business. Among the high-volume stocks and etfs:

• BBY, bear signal on a gap down following earnings guidance; the stock has shown three signals in five days. The stock has been on an uptrend since June, so a bull signal after a pullback would be playable.
  
• VZ, bear, uptrend since October
  
• T, bear, uptrend since July
  
• GILD, bear, pretty much sideways since February
  
• XLE, bull, downtrend since October
  
• BK, bear, sideways, mainly, all year
  
• FLR, bull, downtrend since July
  

The number of new signals is something of an indicator. Compared to yesterday, today is a yawner.

BBY, VZ and T  might be playable on the next bull signal, if accompanied by price/volume confirmation, but the bear signal is counter-trend, something I'm avoiding these days.

The rest are either counter-trend or stocks going nowhere, and so don't pique my interest.

Looking more closely at my holdings:

UNG, my remaining December option, just keeps rising. In hindsight, better to have held the shares rather than hedging with a covered call (-c9). Go figure.  Even so, I'll profit from the covered call when the shares are drawn away from me after the option's last trading day, Friday.

At current prices, it would cost net 0.14 to exit UNG and the covered call, against a net 0.39 profit if I wait until expiry.

The bull put spreads:

• AET (p31/-p32)  is bumping up against resistance set last January. I'm holding for now but will close at the first sign of a price pullback. 
• HPQ (p49/-p50) has hit resistance set in November, and I'll be fairly hair-trigger about closing that position as well.
• VALE (p30/-p31) is trading within the range set yesterday, when I opened the position

X, a bear call spread (c41/-c40) is toying with upside resistance set in September. If it bumps through then I'll close for a loss. The stock flipped into bull mode on the fourth day after I opened the position.

KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60), sits at a resistance level set in May 2008 and remains above max profitability, proving yet again that an iron condor has double the risk of beaking your heart. It can be unprofitable on both the upside and the downside.