Tuesday, December 15, 2009

12/15 Watchlist

Indicators, currency pairs and holdings are showing no new signals since the Morningline.
Mobile phone companies showed bear signals after reports that Google plans to enter the cellphone hardware and service business. Among the high-volume stocks and etfs:
  • BBY, bear signal on a gap down following earnings guidance; the stock has shown three signals in five days. The stock has been on an uptrend since June, so a bull signal after a pullback would be playable.
  • VZ, bear, uptrend since October
  • T, bear, uptrend since July
  • GILD, bear, pretty much sideways since February
  • XLE, bull, downtrend since October
  • BK, bear, sideways, mainly, all year
  • FLR, bull, downtrend since July
The number of new signals is something of an indicator. Compared to yesterday, today is a yawner.

BBY, VZ and T  might be playable on the next bull signal, if accompanied by price/volume confirmation, but the bear signal is counter-trend, something I'm avoiding these days.

The rest are either counter-trend or stocks going nowhere, and so don't pique my interest.

Looking more closely at my holdings:

UNG, my remaining December option, just keeps rising. In hindsight, better to have held the shares rather than hedging with a covered call (-c9). Go figure.  Even so, I'll profit from the covered call when the shares are drawn away from me after the option's last trading day, Friday.

At current prices, it would cost net 0.14 to exit UNG and the covered call, against a net 0.39 profit if I wait until expiry.

The bull put spreads:

  • AET (p31/-p32)  is bumping up against resistance set last January. I'm holding for now but will close at the first sign of a price pullback. 
  • HPQ (p49/-p50) has hit resistance set in November, and I'll be fairly hair-trigger about closing that position as well.
  • VALE (p30/-p31) is trading within the range set yesterday, when I opened the position
X, a bear call spread (c41/-c40) is toying with upside resistance set in September. If it bumps through then I'll close for a loss. The stock flipped into bull mode on the fourth day after I opened the position.

KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60), sits at a resistance level set in May 2008 and remains above max profitability, proving yet again that an iron condor has double the risk of beaking your heart. It can be unprofitable on both the upside and the downside.

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