Thursday, December 10, 2009

12/10 Morningline

The VIX shows a bear signal this morning, two days after a bull signal, with little change in level. The true nature of the fear index is neither bull nor bear but rather confused puppy.

I add a new indicator, USO, which tracks light, sweet West Texas crude.


  • Blue chips (SPY), bear mode with a gap upward.
  • Fear index (VIX), new signal, bull mode (bearish for stocks)
  • Treasury long bonds (TLT), bear mode.
  • Gold (GLD), bear mode
  • Oil (USO), fifth day in bear mode
  • Dollars per euro (EUR/USD), bear mode with a pause in the price decline
  • Yen per dollar (USD/JPY), bear mode with a pause

With nine days until expiry of my covered call (-c9), UNG is trading a bit above 9.22 and would be profitable if exercised.

The January expiry holdings:

HPQ, a bull put spread (p49/-p50), has opened above yesterday's close and is tracking nicely in line with my position. This confirming price action comes after a whipsaw of three signals in four days.

KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) is trading about half a point above max profit at expiration.

X, a bear call spread (-c40/c41), is trading near yesterday's close on this second day in bull mode. It is near resistance and I shall close the position if it is about to close above 47. (X is presently trading at 47.02.)

Currency holding (paper):

My USD/JPY bearish paper trade, based on yesterday's pps bear signal, is going nowhere at the start of the morning, as it trades upward within the range set by yesterday's decline. (Paper trade means I have no real money on this position; I'm using the trade to test the pps indicator in the currency markets.)

No comments:

Post a Comment