Wednesday, December 2, 2009

12/2 Watchlist

Today I'll be paying more attention to trends, not just signals, as discussed in my lessons learned discussion of the losing trade in GLD.

New Person's Proprietary Index signals: IWM, MSFT, ORCL, CHK, BK

None of those are confirmed by the Money Flow Index reversing out of overbought or oversold territory. So, let's what we have.

IWM shows a bull pps signal today, a day after bouncing off of the 20-day moving average (ma20). The ma20 has been in decline since around Oct. 19 but reversed on Nov. 20. The ma200 is uptrending. So I can make a case for this being an uptrending issue with a bounce off of the ma20. Shares are trading at 59.63, with upside resistance at about 60.50 and 62.50, with downside support at 58. The Money Flow Index is moving upward, in the direction of the trade. The share price, however, has been in a sideways pattern since early September.

MSFT, at 29.73, shows a similar pattern, albeit with a more pronounced upward trend but a contrary mfi. The price is within about 0.30 of upside resistance.

ORCL, at 22.63, has been trending upward on the ma20 since mid-October. It has moved further above the ma20 and is within 0.20 of resistance in a sidewise zig-zag that has been in place since July. Earnings on Dec. 15, which carries news risk and rewards.

CHK, at 23.27, is a bear play, with the price bouncing off the underside of an ma20 that has been declining since mid-October (although the ma200 is rising). The price is within 0.30 of downside resistance.

BK, at 27.28 is an example of a trend reversal rather than continuation. It shows a bull signal on the pps, having just pierced the ma20 which has just turned upward. Prices have been in a declining pattern since September .

Of these, I like MSFT as best matching a trend-following strategy.


KO is showing a pps bull signal. It may be time to reduce or elminate the bearish component, converting the position into a bull spread. KO, by the way, is a nice example of an upwarding trending stock, so any bearish component is a trend reversal strategy.

UNG is at 8.68, just around our base point. Much lower and the position won't be profitable.


No new signals since the Morningline

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