Wednesday, December 9, 2009

12/9 Morningline

Blue chips (SPY) open this second day after a bear signal within yesterday's trading range. The fear index (VIX), likewise, is trading within its range of yesterday, when it showed a bull signal, which is bearish for shares.

Treasury long bonds (TLT) are barely changed from yesterday on this seventh day since a bear signal.

Gold (GLD), likewise, is barely changed on the fourth day after a bear signal.

In the currencies,

Euros per dollar (EUR/USD) is unchanged this morning following a four day decline.

Dollars per yen (USD/JPY) are down on a fresh bear signal confirmed by the RSI. The pair has been declining since April, so this is a paper trade I'll be looking at later in the day.

My one December expiry holding, UNG, is running about 0.42 above the 9 strike of the covered call (s/-c9) and 0.30 above my base. So, at this point, we're giving up 0.30 in profit on the stock in order to gain 0.51 in premium on the call at expiration 10 days hence. It would cost about 0.54 to buy back the call this morning, so holding the position makes the most profit.

January expiry holdings:

HPQ, a bull put spread (p49/-p50), closed yesterday with a bear signal and is holding today at about the same price range as yesterday's trading. I'm holding on to the position until there's some clarity in the price action.

X, a bear call spread (c41/-c40), is running sideways on the fourth day since a bear signal.

KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/c60/-c57.5) is trading about 30 cents into the max-profit-at-expiry range on the seventh day since a bull signal.

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