Tuesday, December 8, 2009

12/8 Watchlist

I've found one possibly decent trade, and that one ambiguous, after scanning all etfs and stocks with volume of 5,000,000 and up for pps signals, status of mfi confirmation by direction, and the trend.

The one possibility is AET, which showing a bull pps signal, confirmed by the direction of the mfi. True, the stock has been in a sideways trend since March, but the bull signal is coming at the top of a fluctuation cycle that has been running about a month measured peak to peak.

AET is not yet quit at resistance, and I want to see what happens. If the price breaks above 31.25, then it might be a trade a for me.

Here's the reject list, showing pps signals with status of mfi confirmation by direction and trend:
  • SPY, bear, confirmed, sideways
  • EEM, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
  • MSFT, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • ORCL,  bear, confirmed, sideways
  • MRK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • HD, bear, unconfirmed, sideways
  • XLI, bear, confirmed, sideways
  • ITUB, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • DIA, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • PG, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • XLP, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • VWO, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • TWX, bear, unconfirmed, counter-up-trend retracement on news
  • BBD, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
  • XLK, bear, confirmed, counter-up-trend retracement
I've rejected the sideways trenders (except AET, as described above) because they tend to be too short term for my purposes. My ideal options position will be short (i.e., I sold the options)  and will last for 30 days and trend in my direction, giving me a bump from both the price rise and theta decay.

I also rejected the counter-trend retracements, since my present strategy is to trade with the larger trend.

In today's scan, I gave little thought to mfi confirmation. There was just so much not to like that the mfi became irrelevant.
    In my holdings:

    HPQ has lost the bear signal it showed at the opening this morning and has barely budged during the day. So, no action appears necessary.

    X is looking nicely bearish in line with my position.

    UNG, at 0.46 above the strike of my 9.00 covered call, is showing a bull signal. For tomorrow I'll do  calculation of when (if) it makes sense to sell the call and retain the shares rather than waiting for exercise.

    KO, in bull mode with a sideways price, remains at the top of max profitability of my iron condor.

    The indicators -- SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY -- remain as described in the Morningline.

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