Thursday, December 3, 2009

12/3 Morningline

(All analyses use the pps/mfi except currencies, which use the pps/rsi.)

  • KO is holding about about the same level as yesterday.
  • UNG is at 8.62, about at my basis.
Possiblities identified in yesteday's Watchlist:

  • IWM will be a bullish position if it bumps past resistance at about 60.74
  • MSFT (bull) is at resistance, with the pps indicator unconfirmed by an mfi upturn.
  • ORCL (bull) also at resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi direction.
  • CHK (bear) holding steady at yesterday's close, and the mfi has turned upward, negating the pps signal.
  • BK (bull) is rising toward resistance, unconfirmed by the mfi.
  • SPY (blue chips) remains in bull mode, confirmed by the mfi, but with little change in price since the pps signal was given five days ago.
  • TLT (Treasury long bonds) remains in bear mode, with a gap down this morning that returns the price to its low of Nov. 23. Interest rates move the opposite of the TLT price.
  • GLD (gold) is steady at about our exit point of yesteday, in pps bull mode confirmed by the mfi.

The VIX (fear index) has opened at  about yesterday's close after a five-day decline that puts it in the range of the lowest levels of the past three months.

  • EUR/USD (Dollars per Euro) is in pps bull mode with the rsi, like the price, trending sideways.
  • USD/JPY (Yen per Dollar) is in pps bull mode, and prices have actually begun to rise, after falling for 11 days after the pps signal was given. The rsi is also rising.

My losing bear trade, closed yesterday, was based on analysis using Bollinger bands with the money flow index. If GLD gets a reversal signal from the pps/mfi combo, I'll need to decide whether to re-open a bearish position in GLD. I'll be watching for that possibility today.

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