Wednesday, March 3, 2010

3/3 Morningline

The market is opening as flat as an old bottle of Coke left open to the sun three days running.

With little effervescence and even less pizazz, blue chip stocks (SPY) were trading near the upper half of yesterday's narrow range. Looking only at opens and closes, however, SPY is continuing to climb the staircase that began on Feb. 25. It's just that the stairs are getting somewhat smaller.

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) were trading very narrowly in the middle of yesterday's range in a downtrend that began Feb. 26. The pps showed a bear signal this morning, while the psar and macd remained in bull mode. The sto crossed down below the 80-line, considered to be a bear signal.


Abbreviations
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, 
macd - Moving Average, Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic


The dollar fell against the euro (EUR/USD) but remained within the range of the last 10 U.S. market days. The dollar also continued its decline against the yen (USD/JPY).

Oil (USO) showed a pps bull signal. Although the psar and the macd have been in bull mode since mid-February, the pps has whipsawed with an intervening bear signal on Feb. 25.

Let's run the numbers, as of about 10:05 a.m. Eastern. (Note the switch from the macd to the psar as the primary trigger.)

Indicators:
  • Blue chip stocks etf (SPY) is trading at $112.61, entered psar bull mode at close on Feb. 11 (at $108.13)
  • Fear index or volatility (VIX) 18.66, bear (bullish for stocks), Feb. 17 (21.72)
  • Treasury long bonds (TLT) $90.73, bull, Feb. 25 ($91.20)
  • Corporate junk bonds (JNK) $38.82, bull, Feb. 22 ($38.91) 
  • Emerging markets (EEM) $40.43, bull, Feb. 11 ($39.93)
  • Gold (GLD) $111.30, bull, Feb. 11 ($107.13)
  • Oil (USO) $39.10, bull, Feb. 16, ($37.20)


The developer of Person's Proprietary Signal discusses how he uses technical indicators in his trading tactics.
Forex currency pairs:
  • Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) $1.3638, bear, Feb. 18 ($1.3526)
  • Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) ¥88.86, bear, Feb. 25 (¥89.07)
Stock option holdings, March expiry:
  • AKS, iron condor (p19/-p20/-c25/c26), $23.30, bull, March 3 ($tbd) Note new psar bull signal. Macd also in bull mode.
  • CAL, covered call (-c19), $20.26, bull, Feb. 9 ($19.16)
  • CSCO, iron condor (p22/-p23/-c25/c26), $24.63, bull, Feb. 4 ($23.16)
  • GCI, covered call (-c15), $16.20, bull, Feb. 16 ($14.80) 
  • WFC, iron condor (p26/-p27/-c29/c30), $28.32, bull, Feb. 22 ($28.01)
Zombies:
  • MCO, long shares, $27.22, bear, Feb 4 ($26.39)
  • PALM, long shares, $6.37, bear, Feb. 18 ($9.62)

 
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Topics: S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, high-yield corporate junk bonds, emerging markets, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, AK Steel Holding, Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend fund, Continental Airlines aviation, Cisco Systems networking, CVS, pharmacies, drugs, Gannett newspapers media , Moodys bond rating, Annaly Capital Management real estate REIT mortgage-backed securities, Palm smartphone Pixi Pri, Potash Corp. Saskatchewan, Wells Fargo banking financial.

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