1/20 Morningline: Blue Chips topping at the Fibonacci 50% Retracement?

Blue chip stocks are drifting down after opening around the middle of yesterday's trading range. The stochastic has fallen below the 80-line, and the macd, below the zero-line. This is after a bear signal and then a bull signal, from Person's Proprietary Signal, one trading day after another.

The so-called fear index, the VIX, is showing a potential pps bull signal, which is bearish for stocks.

Is this a topping pattern, as confused puppy mode often can be? The S&P500 etf, SPY, is trading at 114, right at the point where it has regained half the loss it suffered from October 2007 high to its March 2009 low. That Fibonacci retracement level is often a turning point for shares.

In the long term, if the market is stair-stepping down, this a point where it typically takes the next step down.

The price of Treasury long-term bonds has gapped up by nine-tenths of a percent. Gold has gapped down by 1.3 percent. Among my holdings, ORCL has gapped down by 1.7 percent, casting some doubt on my bull position (a bull put spread). It is trading below near-term support, and I shall close the position. Let's run the numbers . . .

Indicators:

• Blue chip stocks (SPY) is trading at 113.89, entered bull mode at close on Jan. 19 (at 115.06)
• Fear index or volatility (VIX) 18.87, bear (bullish for stocks), Jan.5 (19.35)
• Treasury long bonds (TLT) 91.42, bull, Jan. 12 (90.32)
• Corporate junk bonds (JNK) 39.78, bear, Jan. 13 (39.85)
• Gold (GLD) 109.82, bear, Jan. 12 (110.49)
• Oil (USO) 38.18, bear, Jan. 12, (39.63)

Forex currency pairs:

• Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) 1.4132, Euro bear, Jan. 15 (1.4385)
• Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) 91.25, Dollar bear, Jan. 12 (90.97)

Stock options holdings, February expiry:

• CVS, iron condor (p29/-p31/-c34/c36) 33.85, bull, Jan. 5 (32.85)
  
• ORCL, bull put spread (p25/-p27)  24.9, bull, Jan. 13 (24.80)

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Topics:
S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, high-yield corporate junk bonds, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, CVS, pharmacies, drugs Oracle, Elliott Waves