Friday, January 8, 2010

1/8 Morningline: Employment Numbers Savage Markets -- Not!

I woke up this morning to National Public Radio reporting a loss of 85,000 jobs in November, in the usual doomday tones that accompany such stories.

Blue chips (SPY) opened this morning -- well, unchanged, in the middle of yesterday's trading range. Illustrating once again that the monthly employment figures are a trailing indicator, showing where we were, and the markets are a leading indicator, showing where we think we'll be.

The dollar  retraced nearly all of yesterday's gains again the yen (USD/JPY), pulling back from resistance set in December and in recent weeks. The decline came the day after a pps bull signal.

Among my holdings, KO gaps down after an analyst downgrade and is trading 2.4% below yesterday's close. My position is an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60), and it's profitable down to around 52.50.

And CVS gains 1.6 percent from the open. It's an iron condor (p29/-p31/-c34/c36), so it remains in profitable territory.

Otherwise, a quiet opening.

Indicators:
  • Blue chips (SPY) open at 113.89, entered bull mode at close on Jan. 4 (at 113.33)
  • Fear index (VIX) 19.27, bear (bullish for stocks), Jan.5 (19.35)
  • Treasury long bonds (TLT) 89.51, bull, Jan. 5 (90.39)
  • Corporate junk bonds (JNK) 39.96, bull, Jan. 4 (39.32)
  • Gold (GLD) 111.52, bull, Jan. 4 (109.08)
  • Oil (USO) 40.63, bull, Dec. 16, (36.74)
Currency pairs:
  • Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) 1.4307, bear, Dec. 4 (1.49)
  • Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) 93.36, bear, Jan. 5 (91.69)
Holdings, January expiry:
  • KO, iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) 55.46, bear, Dec. 29 (57.74)
  • LVS, covered call (-c16) 18.35, bull, Jan. 4 (16.62)
  • SBUX, bull put spread (p22.5/-p24) 23.20, bear, Dec. 30 (23.31)
Holdings, February expiry:
  • CVS, iron condor (p29/-p31/-c34/c36) 33.67, bull, Jan. 5 (32.85)
  • MRVL, bull put spread (p20/-p22.5) 21.14, bull, Nov. 25 (15.90)
  • VALE, bull put spread (p30/-p32) 31.38, bull, Dec. 24 (28.93)
Topics: S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, high-yield corporate junk bonds, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, Coca-Cola, CVS, pharmacies, drugs Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, Marvell Technology, Vale, Brazil, Mining, unemployment, employment.

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