Wednesday, January 13, 2010

1/13 Morningline: Blue Chips pause; fear, loathing and bullishness

Oil (USO) gaps down to 0.8% below the prior close. The other indicators and the currencies do little at the opening, as though exhausted by yesterday's drama.

Yesterday's potential bear signal on the blue chips (SPY) disappeared at the close of the day. So they remain in bull mode, and given the lack of follow through to yesterday's declines, my bias on blue chips remains bullish, but with a lot of caution, fear and loathing. . . .

Among my holdings, KO continues to push against the upper limits of profitability in my iron condor. It's a January position and has been hard to sell. I'll be trying again today.

The other remaining January position, a covered call on LVS, has dropped 3.9% from today's open on a new potential bull signal. This position is well into profitable territory, so I'm taking no action.

MRVL, a February bull put spread, dropped sharply yesterday to support, and opened this morning at the lower end of the prior day's trading range. It will require close watching today, and I intend to hold the position as long as support isn't pierced.

Here are the numbers:

Indicators:
  • Blue chips (SPY) open at 113.95, entered bull mode at close on Jan. 4 (at 113.33)
  • Fear index (VIX) 17.94, bear (bullish for stocks), Jan.5 (19.35)
  • Treasury long bonds (TLT) 89.93, bull, Jan. 12 (90.32)
  • Corporate junk bonds (JNK) 39.97, bull, Jan. 4 (39.32)
  • Gold (GLD) 110.92, bear, Jan. 12 (110.49)
  • Oil (USO) , bear, Jan. 12, (39.63)
Currency pairs:
  • Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) 1.4484, bull, Jan. 11 (1.4512)
  • Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) 90.98, bear, Jan. 12 (90.97)
Holdings, January expiry:
  • KO, iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) 56.86, bull, Jan. 12 (56.88)
  • LVS, covered call (-c16) 18.5, bull, Jan. 4 (16.62)
Holdings, February expiry:
  • CVS, iron condor (p29/-p31/-c34/c36) 33.37, bull, Jan. 5 (32.85)
  • MRVL, bull put spread (p20/-p22.5) 20.53, bear, Jan. 12 (20.36)

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S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, high-yield corporate junk bonds, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, CVS, pharmacies, drugs Coca-Cola, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Marvell Technology.

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