Monday, January 4, 2010

1/4 Morningline

The 2010 trading year has begun.


GLD shows a potential bull signal on a 2.4% gap up. It won't become real unless it lasts to the close today, since I'm trading off of a daily chart.

I've added a new indicator, JNK, an etf tracking corporate bonds that are less than investment grade. JNK shows a potential bull signal this morning.

Potential bull signal on the EUR/USD currency pair (but no companion signal on the USD/JPY).

Potential bull signal on LVS (which is a bullish position -- yay!).

Indicators:
  • Blue chips (SPY) open at 112.37 and then rose a bit, entered bear mode at close on Dec. 31 (at 111.44); that drop before New Year's in the last minutes of trading in a very thin market wasn't all that serious.
  • Fear index (VIX) 21.68 and dropping slightly, bull (bearish for stocks), Dec. 31 (21.68)
  • Treasury long bonds (TLT) 89.84 and dropping, bear, Dec. 21 (91.14)
  • Corporate junk bonds (JNK) 39.15, bear, Dec. 29 (38.31)
  • Gold (GLD) 109.82 on a 2.4% gap up from the Dec. 31 close, bull, Dec. 17 (108.00)
  • Oil (USO) 40.04 on a 1.9% gap up, bull, Dec. 16, (36.74)
Currency pairs:
  • Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) 1.4302 and then a rapid 1% run-up, bear, Dec. 4 (1.49)
  • Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) 92.98 and declining, bull, Dec. 15 (89.60)
Holdings, January expiry, no new signals:
  • KO, iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) 57.16 near the bottom of the prior day's trading range, bear, Dec. 29 (57.74)
  • LVS, covered call (-c16) 15.60 and rising on a 3.4% gap up, bear, Dec. 18 (15.29)
  • SBUX, bull put spread (p22.5/-p24) 23.28 within the prior day's range, bear, Dec. 30 (23.31)
  • SMH, bull put spread (p27.5/-p29) 28.35 on a 1.5% gap up from the prior close, bull, Dec. 21 (27.62)

Topics: S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, high-yield corporate junk bonds, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, Coca-Cola, Las Vegas Sands, gambling, resort, Starbucks, coffee, semiconductors

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