Wednesday, November 30, 2011

12/1 Almanac

On Thursday, Dec. 1: Weekly jobless claims, the ISM manufacturing index.

There are 16 days before the December options expire, 51 the January, 79 the February and 107 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 4.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 4.4% in a net move up of 1.2%.

The day's extremes: Open $123.49, high $125.22, low $120.00, close $124.99.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $122.50-$127.72.

In total, 3.7 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, up 48% from the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $115.05 and $134.93. The range is +/- $9.94 from the last closing price, 64¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.88%, six basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Weekly jobless claims will kick off the trading day, a report that colors perceptions of the big monthly employment report due out on Friday. Jobless claims are out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

At 10 a.m., another major report with market-moving potential: The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index.

Also out, construction spending at 10 a.m., car and truck sales and also chain store sales throughout the day, Bloomberg's consumer comfort index at 9:45 a.m., natural gas at 10:30 a.m., and two weeklies from the Fed: The balance sheet and money supply, both at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury announces requirements for 3- and 6-month bills at 11 a.m.

No Fedsters are opining, in public at least.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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