Wednesday, November 2, 2011

11/3 Almanac

On Thursday, Nov. 3: Jobless claims.

There are 16 trading days before the November options expire, 44 the December, 79 the January and 107 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.6% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.3% in a net move up of 0.1%.

The day's extremes: Open $122.03, high $123.51, low $121.52, close $123.99.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $120.77-$122.76.

In total, 2.9 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 21% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $112.31 and $135.67. The range is +/- $11.68 from the last closing price, 70¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.97%, six basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The Labor Department will release weekly jobless claims figures and the monthly report on worker productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Other releases having potential market impact: The Commerce Department's factory orders report and the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, both at 10 a.m.

Major chain stores will report on sales throughout the day. Also out, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index at 9:45 a.m., and the natural gas report at 10:30 a.m.

The Federal Reserve caps the day at 4:30 p.m.with two weekly reports: The Fed balance sheet and money supply numbers.

Treasury announces requirements for 3- and 6-month bills at 11 a.m.

One Fedster, Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, has scheduled a public appearance at 8:30 a.m. An alternate member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Lockhart worked with Citigroup (then called Citicorp/Citibank), Heller Financial and the private equity firm Zephyr Management L.P. before assuming his present position under President George W. Bush.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical and calendar spreads, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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