Wednesday, November 9, 2011

11/10 Almanac

On Thursday, Nov. 10: International trade, Bernanke town hall.

There are nine trading days before the November options expire, 37 the December, 72 the January and 100 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 3.7% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 2.3% in a net move down of 1.4%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.89, high $125.80, low $122.86, close $123.16.

SPY traded entirely below the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $121.54-$124.48.

In total, 3.2 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 20% more than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $110.37 and $135.95. The range is +/- $12.79 from the last closing price, $2.69 wider than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.90%, 10 basis points lower than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Three potential market-movers at 8:30 a.m. Eastern: International trade from the Commerce Department, and two from the Labor Department: Weekly jobless claims and import/export prices.

Also out, the natural gas report at 10:30 a.m., the Treasury budget at 2 p.m., and two from the Fed -- the balance sheet and money supply -- at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury auctions 30-year bonds at 1:30 p.m., and announces requirements for 3- and 6-month and 52-week bills, and 10-year inflation-indexed TIPS at 11 a.m.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke participates in a town hall meeting with soldiers and military families at 11:45 a.m..

Also, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans -- the lone super-accommodationist on the Federal Open Market Committee -- gives at speech at 10:40 a.m. Evans dissented in a vote this month to maintain current policies, arguing that the Fed should do more to encourage growth. He took office under President George W. Bush after coming up through the Fed system.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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