Monday, November 28, 2011

11/29 Almanac

On Tuesday, Nov. 29: Consumer Confidence.

There are 18 days before the December options expire, 53 the January, 81 the February and 109 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 2.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.1% in a net move up of 0.1%.

The day's extremes: Open $119.54, high $120.18, low $118.82, close $119.71.

SPY traded entirely above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $119.27-$120.63.

In total, 2.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, more than double the shares traded the prior trading day, which was a shortened post-holiday session.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $108.81 and $130.61. The range is +/- $10.90 from the last closing price, 58¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.79%, two basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The Conference Board reports on consumer confidence at 10 a.m. Eastern. This is one of the major market-moving reports.

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index, out at 9:00 a.m., also has the capacity to move markets. It reports on prices in 20 metro areas, accommodating the great truth of real estate: All markets are local.

Also out: Two weekly retail reports, ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m.; the FHFA house price index at 10 a.m.; and the State Street investor confidence index at 11:30 a.m.

Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Board Vice-Chairwoman Janet Yellen and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota, are scheduled to speak.

They have contrasting views on monetary policy. Yellen has unswervingly supported the degree of accommodating favored by Chairman Ben Bernanke. Kocherlakota joined two others in casting dissenting votes last summer against expanding the money supply to encourage economic growth.

Both were named to their posts by President Obama.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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