Friday, November 11, 2011

11/14 Almanac

On Monday, Nov. 14: T-bill auctions. Seriously. That's all.

There are five trading days before the November options expire, 33 the December, 68 the January and 96 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.0% in a net move up of 0.7%.

The day's extremes: Open $125.83, high $126.99, low $125.79, close $126.66.

SPY traded entirely above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $126.23-$127.43.

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 15% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $115.78 and $137.54. The range is +/- $10.88 from the last closing price, 83¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

U.S. bond markets were closed on Friday. Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.99%, nine basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. Eastern and announces requirements for 4-week bills at 11 a.m.

That's all. No economics reports. No Fedsters speaking. I predict a totally unmotivated trading day, unless the Europeans indulge their penchant for drama.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

As the week progresses, look for producer prices and retail sales on Tuesday; consumer prices and industrial production on Wednesday; housing starts, jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey on Thursday; and leading indicators on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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