Friday, November 4, 2011

11/7 Almanac

On Monday, Nov. 7: Consumer credit.

There are 12 trading days before the November options expire, 40 the December, 75 the January and 103 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.6% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.4% in a net move up of 0.2%.

The day's extremes: Open $125.23, high $125.70, low $124.01, close $125.70.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $124.75-$126.44.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 11% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $114.61 and $136.35. The range is +/- $10.87 from the last closing price, 13¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.99%, two basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

A slim start to a slim week.

The lone economics report is consumer credit, from the Federal Reserve, out at 3 p.m. Eastern. This report, in living memory, has never had the least impact on the market. There is a rumor, totally unconfirmed, that Alan Greenspan once fell asleep while reading it.

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m., and announces requirements for 4-week bills at 11 a.m.

Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren gives a speech at 8:40 a.m. He has no seat, not even as an alternate, on the monetary policy committee. Rosengren served as an advisor on Japanese banking and came up through the Fed system as a research economist before taking office under President George W. Bush.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Later in the week, look for international trade and jobless claims on Thursday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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