Wednesday, November 16, 2011

11/17 Almanac

On Thursday, Nov. 17: Housing starts, jobless claims, Philly Fed survey.

There are two trading days before the November options expire, 30 the December, 65 the January and 93 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 1.6% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.9% in a net move down of 0.6%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.81, high $126.34, low $123.90, close $124.08.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $122.77-$125.21.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 15% more than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $112.25 and $135.91. The range is +/- $11.83 from the last closing price, 6¢ wider than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.76%, 12 basis points lower than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Three potential market movers are scheduled: Housing starts and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and the Philadelphia Fed survey, which looks at conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district, at 10 a.m.

Other reports: Bloomberg consumer comfort at 9:45 a.m., and e-commerce retailing and natural gas at 10 a.m.

The Federal Reserve caps the day with two weekly reports: The balance sheet and the money supply, at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury auctions 10-year inflation-indexed TIPS bonds at 1 p.m., and announces requirements for 3- and 6-month bills and 2-, 5- and 7-year notes at 11 a.m.

Two Fedsters are scheduled to speak: New York Fed Pres. William Dudley at 12:50 p.m. and Cleveland Fed Pres. Sandra Pianalto at 12:30 p.m.

Dudley, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee with institutional ties to Goldman Sachs and the Congressional Budget Office under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, took office under President Obama.

Pianalto, who worked for the U.S. House Budget Committee before going to work for the Fed, is an FOMC alternate. She took office under the second President Bush.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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