Thursday, November 3, 2011

11/4 Almanac

On Friday, Nov. 4: Unemployment/Employment, G20 Summit.

There are 15 trading days before the November options expire, 43 the December, 78 the January and 106 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.8% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 2.1% in a net move up of 0.8%.

The day's extremes: Open $125.27, high $126.50, low $123.60, close $126.25.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $124.93-$127.83.

In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 9% more than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $115.25 and $137.25. The range is +/- $11.00 from the last closing price, 68¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.97%, unchanged from the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The biggest potential market mover of the day isn't an economic report, but the Group of 20 Summit in Cannes, which is putting final touches on a bail-out of Greek debt.

... which is not to play down the big econ report of the morning, unemployment and employment figures from the Labor Department, out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

And that's pretty much it for the economic health-check side of things.

Treasury reports on STRIPing activity at 3 p.m. (STRIPS are derived from Treasury notes and bonds, whose principal and interest are sold separately.)

Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo, who sits on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, makes a speech at 1 p.m. Appointed by President Barack Obama, he previously worked with the Clinton administraton and the late Sen. Teddy Kennedy.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical and calendar spreads, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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