Monday, November 21, 2011

11/22 Almanac

On Tuesday, Nov. 22: Gross domestic product.

There are 25 trading days before the December options expire, 60 the January, 88 the February and 116 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 1.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.4% in a net move down of 0.5%.

The day's extremes: Open $120.20, high $120.35, low $118.65, close $119.66.

SPY traded entirely below the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $118.31-$120.01.

In total, 2.9 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 8% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $108.34 and $130.98. The range is +/- $11.32 from the last closing price, 15¢ wider than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.68%, seven basis points lower than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The Commerce Department takes a second shot at third-quarter gross domestic product figures, releasing the preliminary statistics at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The final report for the quarter will be in December.

The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, at 2 p.m. releases minutes of its Nov. 2 meeting.

Commerce also reports on corporate profits at 8:30 a.m., and there are two weekly retail reports, ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m.

The retail stats will probably be less interesting than usual, what with the big shopping days -- Don't-Respect-the-Bird Thursday and Black Friday -- looming. Everyone is just waiting to dash in and shop 'till they drop. Or not.

Treasury auctions 4-week bills at 11:30 a.m. and 5-year notes at 1 p.m.

The Fedsters are sequestered in private contemplation the rest of the week, no doubt making lists of things to be thankful for: No double-dip recession yet, Congress is now taking the heat for all economic evils, Ron Paul has not yet been elected Pesident of the United States. Fedster hearts must be overflowing with thanks.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

No comments:

Post a Comment