Monday, November 7, 2011

11/8 Almanac

On Tuesday, Nov. 8: Two Federal Reserve dissidents speak.

There are 11 trading days before the November options expire, 39 the December, 74 the January and 102 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.8% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.8% in a net move up of 0.7%.

The day's extremes: Open $125.39, high $126.39, low $124.20, close $126.26.

SPY closed within the DeMark pivots after trading below their range. The next DeMark pivots are $125.23-$127.42.

In total, 2.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 10% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $115.45 and $137.07. The range is +/- $10.81 from the last closing price, 4¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 2.01%, two basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

There are no market-moving economics reports scheduled for release.

The National Federation of Independent Business will release its small business optimism index at 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

There are also a pair of weekly retail reports: ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m.

Treasury auctions 4-week bills at 11:30 a.m. and 3-year notes at 1:30 p.m.

Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee have scheduled speeches. Both dissented during the summer in votes on expanding the money supply to encourage economic growth -- "inflation hawks" is the term often used for Fedsters of their ilk.

Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota was an academic before taking office under President Barack Obama. He speaks at 1 p.m.

Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser came to the office with institutional ties to Chase Manhattan Bank, Eastman Kodak Co., Wyatt Co., ViaHealth Inc., RGS Energy Group Inc. and Chase Manhattan Bank, all in consulting or advisory capacities. He also co-chaired the Shadow Open Market Committee, which second-guessed the Fed’s monetary policy. Plosser took office under President George W. Bush. He speaks at 1:30 p.m.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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