Tuesday, November 22, 2011

11/23 Almanac

On Wednesday, Nov. 23: Durables, income/outlays, jobless claims.

There are 24 days before the December options expire, 59 the January, 87 the February and 115 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.4% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.3% in a net move down of 0.2%.

The day's extremes: Open $119.40, high $120.10, low $118.52, close $119.19.

SPY closed within the DeMark pivots after trading above their range. The next DeMark pivots are $118.07-$119.65.

In total, 2.6 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 8% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $108.25 and $130.13. The range is +/- $10.94 from the last closing price, 39¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.70%, two basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Three major federal reports slam out of the agencies at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, an hour before the markets open.

Personal income and outlays tracks what we get and what we spend, and the difference between them is what we save; durable goods track demand for big, expensive items that people and businesses use for years; and weekly jobless claims tallies applications for unemployment benefits.

Because Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, a number of reports that normally come out on separate days have been scrunched together. Example: Natural gas at 10:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 1 a.m.

Also, look for the Mortgage Bankers' purchase applications numbers at 7 a.m., and Bloomberg's consumer comfort index at 9:45 a.m.

Treasury auctions 7-year notes at 1 p.m. and announces 3- and 6-month bill requirements at 11 a.m.

No Fedsters speaking.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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