Tuesday, November 1, 2011

11/1 Forex

Notes on this morning’s forex...

A strengthening U.S. dollar...

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/CAD have broken below rising price channels that began Oct. 4.

GBP/USD shows the same sort of breakdown, except the channel began on Oct. 6.

USD is also rising sharply against nearly all other currencies.

... except against the yen...

USD/JPY opened near a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of yesterday’s upward spike caused by massive Japanese intervention in the market.

Most other ---/JPY pairs showed retracements, although many of a lesser degree.

EUR/GBP continued its downward drive from Monday. The pair has been trading within a £0.889 to £0.853 sideways channel since mid-July.

EUR/PLN strongly pushed above its highest high of the past 20 days.

On the hourly charts, the majors are all showing either overbought or oversold on the relative strength index.

What I Track

For the daily charts, I track approximately 120 currency pairs. For the hourlies, I track the dozen most important pairs, with two NOK pairs added in, because of their energy sector connection.



  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

No comments:

Post a Comment