Monday, October 31, 2011

11/1 Almanac

On Tuesday, Nov. 1: Manufacturing index.

There are 18 trading days before the November options expire, 46 the December, 81 the January and 109 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 2.4% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 2.6% in a net move down of 1.3%.

The day's extremes: Open $127.16, high $128.62, low $125.32, close $125.50.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $123.76-$127.06.

In total, 2.7 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 2% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $114.81 and $136.19. The range is +/- $10.69 from the last closing price, $1.66 wider than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.94%, six basis points lower than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The Institute of Supply Management will release its manufacturing index at 10 a.m. Eastern.

The automakers will release their sales figures throughout the day, and the Commerce Department's construction spending report is out at 10 a.m.

Also out, two weekly retail reports: ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m.

Treasury auctions 4-week bills at 11:30 a.m.

No Fedsters are speaking, except in the hushed conversations of the powerful behind the closed doors of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that began today.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade Dember vertical and calendar spreads, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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