Friday, October 7, 2011

KSS Watch

Kohls Corp. (KSS) continues to set new 20-day highs in a sometimes hesitant rise that is starting to gain some momentum.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

The present rise began on Sept. 12, at $42.14, and has to date gained 21.7%.

Today's upward move fills in a downward gap that preceded the most recent earnings report.

The average directional index is just below 25 and is rising.

The decline ended a long-running sideways movement that began in early January, and the price is again trading within that sideways range.

Should the price reach $57.39 and then reverse, I would conclude that the sideways trend was continuing, and the breakdown below the lower boundary of Aug. 4 was an extended overshoot. A persistent push beyond that level would code as a new uptrend. A failure to reach that level would suggest, to me, that the downtrend is continuing after a retracement.

The price, at today's high so far of $51.37, has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and has since pulled back to just above the 50% retracement.

The key retracement levels:

  • 61.8% - $51.59
  • 50.0% - $49.79
  • 38.2% - $47.98

In terms of financials and analyst sentiment, I'm mildly bullish on KSS. The return on equity is a respectable 15%, although I find the 0.49 debt-equity ratio to be a bit high for my taste. Institutional ownership -- always a plus in my book -- is at 87%.

KSS will announce earnings before the open on Oct. 28. The most recent quarterly dividend was 25¢, an annual rate of 2% of the current price.


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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