Tuesday, October 4, 2011

10/4 Indicators

The S&P 500 (SPY) broke into a downtrend, ending a sideways movement that began Aug. 10. The indicator also moved into bear phase, dropping below the 20-day Donchian price channel.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) ended its climb that began Aug. 23. The trend will count as neutral until the price breaks below $50.06, the starting point of the upward movement. A decline below the Donchian price channel has set the indicator’s phase to bearish.

The fear index (VIX), which measures S&P 500 volatility, has broken above a sideways trend that began Aug. 18, although it is as yet a small breakout.

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) have moved above the Donchian price channel into bull phase.

Crude oil (USO) has broken below a sideways trend that began Aug. 10, swinging into a downtrend.

The U.S. dollar’s (UUP) uptrend strengthened as the average directional index topped 40.

Emerging markets (EEM) declined below the Donchian price channel into bear phase.

And what of gold? The shiny preserver of value beloved by Ron Paul and others who doubt the wisdom of fiat money and the liquidity it brings, has done -- hardly anything. GLD continues to trade within a range -- $155.56 to $162.29 -- as it has for six days. It’s not behaving like a safe haven, the destination of choice when money flees to quality.


sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10


sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10


sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10


sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index
VIX - fear index


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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